Value
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
TNK · Why this verdict
Why Teekay Tankers (TNK) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Teekay Tankers combines strong valuation metrics — forward price-to-earnings of 9.4x and a PEG of 0.09 — with 24% year-over-year earnings growth and best-in-class margins of 43%, placing it among the top-ranked peers on both value and quality dimensions. The primary constraint is that the stock has already reached analyst price targets, leaving minimal near-term upside despite an otherwise compelling fundamental profile.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Teekay Tankers delivered 24% earnings growth year over year with operating margins of 43%, ranking best in class among midstream energy peers and demonstrating an ability to convert revenue to profit efficiently even in a volatile commodity-linked business. Growth breakdown | Operating margins remain above 35% and earnings growth stays positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterTanker margins are highly cyclical and driven by spot freight rates; a supply glut or demand slowdown could compress margins rapidly, as has occurred in prior shipping cycles. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.09 and forward price-to-earnings of 9.4x suggest the stock is deeply discounted relative to its earnings growth rate, indicating the market may be applying an excessive cyclicality discount to what has been a consistent growth trajectory. Valuation breakdown | PEG ratio moves above 0.20 as the price-to-earnings multiple re-rates upward toward 11x over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterExtremely low PEG ratios in cyclical shipping companies often reflect the market pricing in an imminent earnings decline; if freight rates drop, the forward earnings estimates will prove too high. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 combined with three beats in the last four quarters indicates that the company's financial health is improving across multiple dimensions simultaneously, not just in one area. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next two reporting periods, and beats continue in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's earnings miss and low average surprise of only 3.0% suggest the strong beat streak may be decelerating, with estimates possibly catching up to reality. | ||
The stock currently sits within 0.4% of its analyst consensus price target, meaning near-term upside is effectively exhausted until either analysts revise targets higher or the stock pulls back to create a new entry margin. Warnings | Analyst price targets rise above $80 per share, more than 6% above the current $75.56, as earnings growth sustains over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIf freight rates hold firm and earnings continue to beat, analysts may simply maintain existing targets rather than revising higher, keeping the stock range-bound near current levels. | ||
Teekay Tankers delivered 24% earnings growth year over year with operating margins of 43%, ranking best in class among midstream energy peers and demonstrating an ability to convert revenue to profit efficiently even in a volatile commodity-linked business.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 35% and earnings growth stays positive over the next 12 months.
CounterTanker margins are highly cyclical and driven by spot freight rates; a supply glut or demand slowdown could compress margins rapidly, as has occurred in prior shipping cycles.
A PEG ratio of 0.09 and forward price-to-earnings of 9.4x suggest the stock is deeply discounted relative to its earnings growth rate, indicating the market may be applying an excessive cyclicality discount to what has been a consistent growth trajectory.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG ratio moves above 0.20 as the price-to-earnings multiple re-rates upward toward 11x over 12 months.
CounterExtremely low PEG ratios in cyclical shipping companies often reflect the market pricing in an imminent earnings decline; if freight rates drop, the forward earnings estimates will prove too high.
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 combined with three beats in the last four quarters indicates that the company's financial health is improving across multiple dimensions simultaneously, not just in one area.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next two reporting periods, and beats continue in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter's earnings miss and low average surprise of only 3.0% suggest the strong beat streak may be decelerating, with estimates possibly catching up to reality.
The stock currently sits within 0.4% of its analyst consensus price target, meaning near-term upside is effectively exhausted until either analysts revise targets higher or the stock pulls back to create a new entry margin.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets rise above $80 per share, more than 6% above the current $75.56, as earnings growth sustains over the next 12 months.
CounterIf freight rates hold firm and earnings continue to beat, analysts may simply maintain existing targets rather than revising higher, keeping the stock range-bound near current levels.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.1 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 4.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.7 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 43%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 9% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $502,948 (0.020% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 2.5 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (1.1% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.08
Upside
+1.1%
Downside
14.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 8d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.1<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 9.2 and asymmetric R:R of 0.08.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Value at 8.6, and Peer rank at 7.9; the weakest are Technical at 4.4, Momentum at 4.9, and Catalyst at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.08 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Growth And Margins
Trip ifOperating margins fall below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a material deterioration in freight market conditions.
- P2Attractive Valuation With Low Peg
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple falls below 7x as analysts revise earnings estimates lower by more than 20%.
- P3Strong Piotroski And Earnings Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, indicating estimates have overshot reality.
- P4Target Exhaustion And Upside Limits
Trip ifPrice falls below $70 stop-loss, more than 7% below the current $75.56, and analyst targets remain unchanged or decline.