Value
9.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.37
- ▸Attractively valued
TMP · Why this verdict
Why Tompkins Financial (TMP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tompkins Financial trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.1x with a PEG of 0.34 and 38% net margins, backed by a golden cross breakout and strong peer-relative value rankings, but negative asymmetry of -1.85 with the price above the analyst target makes this a hold rather than a new buy.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings of 11.1x and a PEG of 0.34, Tompkins Financial is priced well below its earnings growth rate, placing it in the top tier of the peer value ranking with scores of 8.9 and 8.9 on value and quality relative to peers respectively. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 13x within 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount to peers with similar quality profiles. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks with low growth profiles often trade at persistent PEG discounts due to limited scale, geographic concentration, and sensitivity to interest rate movements that are not captured in simple multiple comparisons. | ||
Net margins of 38% — the highest in the data — and operating margins at the maximum score of 10.0 reflect a well-run regional bank with strong interest income efficiency, supported by positive return on equity and a quality rank score of 8.9 relative to peers. Quality breakdown | Net margin remains above 30% and return on equity stays above 8% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBank margins are highly sensitive to the interest rate environment, and a rate cut cycle could compress net interest margins materially from the current 38% level without any operational failure. | ||
A golden cross with the stock above all major moving averages, RSI at 61, and rising on-balance volume confirm a technically sound breakout supported by institutional accumulation, with the MACD in bullish territory. Momentum breakdown | Stock remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 9 of the next 12 months and on-balance volume continues rising. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is only 2.6% from its 52-week high and approaching the analyst price target, which historically leads to distribution as momentum participants exit into strength. | ||
With the stock at $90.58 and the resistance target at $91.16, there is effectively no upside remaining to the near-term price objective, and asymmetry of -1.85 means the setup is unfavorable for new entry regardless of the quality and value metrics. Warnings | Analyst price target rises above $100 within 12 months, restoring more than 10% upside from current levels and re-establishing positive asymmetry. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThree of the last four quarters beat earnings estimates, and continued delivery could prompt analysts to raise their targets, organically restoring the asymmetry without a price correction. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 11.1x and a PEG of 0.34, Tompkins Financial is priced well below its earnings growth rate, placing it in the top tier of the peer value ranking with scores of 8.9 and 8.9 on value and quality relative to peers respectively.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 13x within 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount to peers with similar quality profiles.
CounterRegional banks with low growth profiles often trade at persistent PEG discounts due to limited scale, geographic concentration, and sensitivity to interest rate movements that are not captured in simple multiple comparisons.
Net margins of 38% — the highest in the data — and operating margins at the maximum score of 10.0 reflect a well-run regional bank with strong interest income efficiency, supported by positive return on equity and a quality rank score of 8.9 relative to peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 30% and return on equity stays above 8% over the next 12 months.
CounterBank margins are highly sensitive to the interest rate environment, and a rate cut cycle could compress net interest margins materially from the current 38% level without any operational failure.
A golden cross with the stock above all major moving averages, RSI at 61, and rising on-balance volume confirm a technically sound breakout supported by institutional accumulation, with the MACD in bullish territory.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 9 of the next 12 months and on-balance volume continues rising.
CounterThe stock is only 2.6% from its 52-week high and approaching the analyst price target, which historically leads to distribution as momentum participants exit into strength.
With the stock at $90.58 and the resistance target at $91.16, there is effectively no upside remaining to the near-term price objective, and asymmetry of -1.85 means the setup is unfavorable for new entry regardless of the quality and value metrics.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price target rises above $100 within 12 months, restoring more than 10% upside from current levels and re-establishing positive asymmetry.
CounterThree of the last four quarters beat earnings estimates, and continued delivery could prompt analysts to raise their targets, organically restoring the asymmetry without a price correction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.6 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 8.6 |
Momentum
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 8.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=2)
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 9.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $99,988 (0.007% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 9.1 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| beta | 8.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $101.12 has reached target $99.46. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.14
Upside
-22.2%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.5>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 9.1; weakest: Technical at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Momentum at 8.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.9; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Sentiment at 5.4, and Catalyst at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Peg
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple falls below 9x, declining more than 18% from the current 11.1x, confirming the valuation discount is deepening rather than closing.
- P2High Margin Quality Banking
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25%, declining more than 13 percentage points from the current 38%, signaling meaningful margin compression.
- P3Golden Cross Breakout
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and the golden cross reverses, signaling that the breakout has failed.
- P4Negative Asymmetry Target Reached
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $80, more than 11% below the current price of $90.58, confirming that downside risk has emerged.