Skip to main content
TMPTompkins Financial CorporationHold6.5·$94.64+0.11%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Tompkins Financial trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.1x with a PEG of 0.34 and 38% net margins, backed by a golden cross breakout and strong peer-relative value rankings, but negative asymmetry of -1.85 with the price above the analyst target makes this a hold rather than a new buy.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Low PegStable
  • High Margin Quality BankingStable
  • Golden Cross BreakoutStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $94.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York State and Pennsylvania; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and commercial real estate loans (73.9%).

Tompkins Financial Corporation is a financial holding company operating Tompkins Community Bank, which runs 54 banking offices — 38 in New York and 16 in Pennsylvania — offering commercial and consumer banking, wealth management, and trust services. The bank held $8.7 billion in... Read more

$94.64+0.6% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#29 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.83%(5y avg 3.62%)Payout21.90%sustainable
Stop $90.28Target $95.18(resistance)A.R:R -2.1:1
Analyst target$88.50-6.5%2 analysts
$95.18our TP
$94.64price
$88.50mean
$87

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $94.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York State and Pennsylvania; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and commercial real estate loans (73.9%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Tompkins Financial Corporation

About Tompkins Financial Corporation

Tompkins Community Bank, the banking subsidiary of Tompkins Financial Corporation, held $8.7 billion in total assets, $6.4 billion in total loans, and $7.1 billion in total deposits as of December 31, 2025, operating 54 banking offices split between 38 in New York and 16 in Pennsylvania. The Ithaca, New York-based financial holding company also provides trust and wealth management services under the Tompkins Financial Advisors brand and is regulated by the Federal Reserve Board, the FDIC, and the New York State Department of Financial Services.

Tompkins earns its revenue primarily from net interest income on loans and securities, supplemented by fee income from trust, investment management, and financial-planning services delivered through Tompkins Financial Advisors. Commercial and commercial real estate loans made up 73.9% of the company's total loan portfolio at year-end 2025, with agricultural loans — real estate and operating loans tied to the health of the farm economy — comprising another 5.4%. Funding relies on core deposits from its New York and Pennsylvania branch network, supplemented by borrowings and repurchase agreements from the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York, its most important liquidity counterparty. On October 31, 2025, the company sold its insurance subsidiary, Tompkins Insurance Agencies, to Arthur J. Gallagher Risk Management Services, narrowing its business to two segments: banking and wealth management.

Show full overview

Tompkins Financial's credit risk skews toward commercial and commercial real estate exposure, which the 10-K identifies as a concentration the company expects to persist in 2026 and beyond, while its geographic footprint gives it less ability than larger regional or national banks to diversify credit risk across multiple markets. Agricultural loans, 5.4% of the total portfolio, depend on farm profitability that the filing flags as vulnerable to tariffs and retaliatory trade measures affecting the cost and demand for products tied to those farm operations. Because the company's operations concentrate in New York State and, to a lesser extent, Pennsylvania, a downturn specific to either market could disproportionately affect loan repayment and collateral values.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Tompkins Financial Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 24, 202618d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: New York State and Pennsylvania
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and commercial real estate loans (73.9%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.1
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn38.0%
ROE19.8%
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.72
Dividend2.83%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNew York State and Pennsylvania
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's operations are heavily concentrated in New York State and, to a lesser extent, Pennsylvania'
  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial and commercial real estate loans74%
    10-K Item 1A: 'commercial and commercial real estate loans totaled $4.8 billion or 73.9% of the Company's total loans'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyFederal Home Loan Bank of New York (FHLBNY)
    10-K Item 1A: 'The most important counterparty for the Company, in terms of liquidity, is the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Phillip M. Quintana appointed President of Tompkins Community Bank and EVP of Tompkins Financial Corporation, effective April 27, 2026, succeeding John M. McKenna, who stepped down after 17 years due to personal health considerations.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $85.61Resistance $97.12

Price Targets

$90
$95
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TMP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $94.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York State and Pennsylvania; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and commercial real estate loans (73.9%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $95.18 (+0.6%), stop $90.28 (−4.8%), A.R:R -2.1:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TMP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $95.18 (+0.6% upside). Target $95.18 (+0.6%), stop $90.28 (−4.8%), A.R:R -2.1:1. Stop-loss: $90.28.

What are the risks of investing in TMP?

Concentration risk — Geographic: New York State and Pennsylvania; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and commercial real estate loans (73.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is TMP overvalued or undervalued?

Tompkins Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TMP?

6 analysts cover TMP with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $89.

What does Tompkins Financial Corporation do?Tompkins Financial Corporation is a financial holding company operating Tompkins Community Bank, which runs 54 banking...

Tompkins Financial Corporation is a financial holding company operating Tompkins Community Bank, which runs 54 banking offices — 38 in New York and 16 in Pennsylvania — offering commercial and consumer banking, wealth management, and trust services. The bank held $8.7 billion in total assets, $6.4 billion in loans, and $7.1 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025, after selling its insurance subsidiary to Arthur J. Gallagher in October 2025.

Related stocks: NBN (Northeast Bank) · BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · NPB (Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services, I)
Home Stocks TMP

Latest news

Latest News

Meyka69d ago
Xã Thanh Hà75d ago
Xã Vĩnh Công76d ago
TradingView83d agoEarnings
TradingView83d agoEarnings
TradingView83d agoEarnings
MarketBeat70d agoAnalyst
TipRanks70d agoAnalyst
TipRanks68d ago
Marketscreener.com68d ago
Meyka75d ago
Sahm65d ago
Msn.com73d ago
Yahoo Finance73d agoEarnings
TipRanks71d agoLeadership Change
Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai78d ago
MarketBeat74d ago
MarketBeat74d ago
MarketBeat74d ago
Marketscreener.com74d agoEarnings
Loading more...