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Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Wait for pullback to $78.93. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $84.01. Engine's entry $78.93 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.4% away).

Tompkins Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides commercial and consumer banking, leasing, trust and investment management, financial planning and wealth management, and insurance services. It operates through two segments: Banking, and Wealth Management.... Read more

$84.01+7.1% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#17 of 142 Banks - Regional
Entry $78.93(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $74.88Target $85.02(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$88.50+5.3%2 analysts
$85.02our TP
$84.01price
$88.50mean
$90

Wait for pullback to $78.93. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $84.01. Engine's entry $78.93 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.4% away). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.4% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.2
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn38.0%
ROE19.8%
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.71
Dividend3.21%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$80-4.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $78.39Resistance $86.76

Price Targets

$75
$79
$85
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R-1.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.5% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TMP stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $78.93. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $84.01. Engine's entry $78.93 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.4% away). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $85.02 (+1.2%), stop $74.88 (−12.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TMP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.02 (+7.1% upside). Target $85.02 (+1.2%), stop $74.88 (−12.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $74.88.

What are the risks of investing in TMP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.4% away).

Is TMP overvalued or undervalued?

Tompkins Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.2 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TMP?

6 analysts cover TMP with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $89.

What does Tompkins Financial Corporation do?Tompkins Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides commercial and consumer banking, leasing, trust...

Tompkins Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides commercial and consumer banking, leasing, trust and investment management, financial planning and wealth management, and insurance services. It operates through two segments: Banking, and Wealth Management. The company accepts various deposit products, including checking and savings accounts, time deposits, and IRA products. It also offers loans for various business purposes, including real estate financing, construction, equipment financing, accounts receivable financing, and commercial leasing; residential mortgage loans; personal loans; home equity loans; residential real estate loans; commercial and industrial loans; commercial real estate loans; agriculture loans; and consumer and other loans, such as direct and indirect personal installment loans, automobile financing, and overdraft lines of credit. In addition, the company provides letters of credit and sweep accounts; credit and debit cards; deposit and cash management, internet-based account, remote deposit, safe deposit, ATM, voice response, and mobile and internet banking services; trust and estate; financial and tax planning services; property and casualty, life, disability, and long-term care insurance services; employee benefit consulting services; and insurance planning services. It primarily serves individuals, corporate executives, small business owners, and high net worth individuals. Tompkins Financial Corporation was founded in 1836 and is headquartered in Ithaca, New York.

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