Value
4.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 3.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
TKNO · Why this verdict
Why Alpha Teknova (TKNO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alpha Teknova is a cash-burning, below-floor-quality small cap whose shares are already above the engine's target, leaving little upside despite narrowing losses and revenue growth.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality of 2.6 is below the 4.0 floor, with cash burn of 2% of revenue and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 as free cash flow turns less negative over 12 months. | — |
| CounterThe current ratio (8.5) and Piotroski F-Score component (6.7) show a solid balance sheet that could fund the burn for years. | ||
The share price of $8.84 is already 11.4% above the target (upside of -11.4%), so no upside remains. Upside pct | Upside to target turns positive again only if earnings or resistance levels reset higher. | — |
| CounterThe target is a technical resistance level, not a fundamental valuation, and a breakout could simply reset it higher. | ||
Quarterly losses are narrowing: the latest EPS of -0.05 beat the -0.07 estimate, and four of the last four reports were in line or better. Earnings | Quarterly EPS loss shrinks further toward breakeven over the next four reports. | — |
| CounterOnly 1 of the last 4 quarters was a true beat and the company still posts losses every quarter. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached $12.2M, up from $10.3M a year earlier, an increase of roughly 18%. Earnings | Quarterly revenue holds above $11.7M, in line with the next-quarter estimate, and keeps growing. | — |
| CounterRevenue figures are provisional and the sequential rise may be lumpy rather than a durable trend. | ||
Short interest of 14% and a put/call ratio of 4.17 show the market is positioned against the stock. Key risks | Put/call ratio normalizes toward 1.0 as the bearish positioning unwinds. | — |
| CounterOptions open interest reads as zero, so the put/call ratio may come from very thin volume and carry little information. | ||
Quality of 2.6 is below the 4.0 floor, with cash burn of 2% of revenue and no competitive moat.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 as free cash flow turns less negative over 12 months.
CounterThe current ratio (8.5) and Piotroski F-Score component (6.7) show a solid balance sheet that could fund the burn for years.
The share price of $8.84 is already 11.4% above the target (upside of -11.4%), so no upside remains.
—Upside pct
- Expectation
- Upside to target turns positive again only if earnings or resistance levels reset higher.
CounterThe target is a technical resistance level, not a fundamental valuation, and a breakout could simply reset it higher.
Quarterly losses are narrowing: the latest EPS of -0.05 beat the -0.07 estimate, and four of the last four reports were in line or better.
—Earnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS loss shrinks further toward breakeven over the next four reports.
CounterOnly 1 of the last 4 quarters was a true beat and the company still posts losses every quarter.
Quarterly revenue reached $12.2M, up from $10.3M a year earlier, an increase of roughly 18%.
—Earnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue holds above $11.7M, in line with the next-quarter estimate, and keeps growing.
CounterRevenue figures are provisional and the sequential rise may be lumpy rather than a durable trend.
Short interest of 14% and a put/call ratio of 4.17 show the market is positioned against the stock.
—Key risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio normalizes toward 1.0 as the bearish positioning unwinds.
CounterOptions open interest reads as zero, so the put/call ratio may come from very thin volume and carry little information.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.9 |
| MACD | 1.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.5 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.6 |
| days to cover | 3.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.57
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.15
Upside
+2.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.6<4.5 outcome against Sentiment at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of 0.15.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.8, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 7.3; the weakest are Quality at 2.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Momentum at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from current 2.6.
- P2Target Already Exceeded
Trip ifUpside to target rises above 10% from current -11.4%.
- P3Narrowing Quarterly Losses
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below -0.10 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Revenue Growth Recovery
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $10M from current $12.2M.
- P5Short Interest And Put Skew
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 from current 4.17.