Value
8.7/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 8.6 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.73
- ▸Attractively valued
TKC · Why this verdict
Why Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TKC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The overall quality score of 3.9 falls below the minimum threshold of 4.0 required for investment consideration, driven by weak return on equity, thin gross margins, and below-average operating margins relative to peers. Warnings | Quality score rises above 5.0 within 12 months through margin improvement or reduction in operating expenses that lifts the return profile. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 suggests the balance sheet and cash flow statement are healthy, meaning the quality floor failure may be driven by profitability metrics that could recover. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6x and a PEG of 0.77 suggest the stock is priced at a discount to fair value, offering potential upside if the business quality floor is repaired and earnings delivery improves. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 14x within 12 months as earnings delivery improves and the valuation discount narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterLow multiples on emerging market telecoms often reflect persistent structural discounts driven by currency risk, political instability, and low growth rather than a genuine mispricing opportunity. | ||
Two of the last four earnings quarters resulted in significant misses, including a -30.6% and a -45.7% negative surprise, producing an average surprise of -15.2%, which undermines confidence in forward estimates. Earnings | Beat count reaches at least 3 out of the next 4 quarters and average surprise percentage rises above 0% over the next year. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two beat quarters showed positive surprises of 7.7% and 7.6%, suggesting the business can deliver when operational conditions are favorable. | ||
RSI at 70 signals overbought conditions, and with the stock trading above its 200-day moving average after a strong run, a consolidation or mean-reversion pullback is possible before any sustained uptrend can develop. Momentum breakdown | RSI falls below 60 and price remains above the 200-day moving average, allowing momentum to reset to sustainable levels without a breakdown. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume confirms genuine accumulation, and overbought conditions in a strong uptrend can persist for extended periods without a meaningful reversal. | ||
The overall quality score of 3.9 falls below the minimum threshold of 4.0 required for investment consideration, driven by weak return on equity, thin gross margins, and below-average operating margins relative to peers.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 5.0 within 12 months through margin improvement or reduction in operating expenses that lifts the return profile.
CounterA Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 suggests the balance sheet and cash flow statement are healthy, meaning the quality floor failure may be driven by profitability metrics that could recover.
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6x and a PEG of 0.77 suggest the stock is priced at a discount to fair value, offering potential upside if the business quality floor is repaired and earnings delivery improves.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 14x within 12 months as earnings delivery improves and the valuation discount narrows.
CounterLow multiples on emerging market telecoms often reflect persistent structural discounts driven by currency risk, political instability, and low growth rather than a genuine mispricing opportunity.
Two of the last four earnings quarters resulted in significant misses, including a -30.6% and a -45.7% negative surprise, producing an average surprise of -15.2%, which undermines confidence in forward estimates.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat count reaches at least 3 out of the next 4 quarters and average surprise percentage rises above 0% over the next year.
CounterThe two beat quarters showed positive surprises of 7.7% and 7.6%, suggesting the business can deliver when operational conditions are favorable.
RSI at 70 signals overbought conditions, and with the stock trading above its 200-day moving average after a strong run, a consolidation or mean-reversion pullback is possible before any sustained uptrend can develop.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI falls below 60 and price remains above the 200-day moving average, allowing momentum to reset to sustainable levels without a breakdown.
CounterRising on-balance volume confirms genuine accumulation, and overbought conditions in a strong uptrend can persist for extended periods without a meaningful reversal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Turkcell offers attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.6x with strong price momentum and rising on-balance volume, but below-average business quality and a 50% earnings miss rate over the last four quarters create a weak foundation for new investment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 1.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 3.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 5.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.6 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸High IV: 134%
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.95
Upside
+9.8%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Sentiment at 6.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Catalyst at 3.6, and Quality at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.95 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Value Low Multiple
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple falls below 8x, more than 30% below the current 11.6x, signaling further derating rather than recovery.
- P2Below Quality Floor
Trip ifQuality score remains below 4.0 for more than 3 consecutive quarterly assessment cycles, confirming structural quality issues rather than temporary weakness.
- P3Earnings Miss Rate Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming that the poor average miss rate of -15.2% is not improving.
- P4Overbought Momentum Risk
Trip ifPrice drops below $5.50, more than 10% below the current $6.16, confirming a momentum reversal despite the elevated RSI reading.