Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.5 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
THRM · Why this verdict
Why Gentherm (THRM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Gentherm looks cheap on valuation and cash-conversion metrics, but a death cross the engine treats as a hard block, alongside failed momentum and asymmetry gates and consecutive earnings misses, keeps the setup unattractive for now.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock shows a thin upside margin of just 4.2%, limiting the reward available even if the thesis plays out. Bear case | The upside margin should widen above 10% for the risk/reward to become more compelling over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA thin upside margin on an attractively valued stock with strong cash conversion may still be worth holding for income and stability rather than pure capital appreciation. | ||
Gentherm trades at an attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 11.1x and an unusually low PEG ratio of 0.03, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should stay below 15x or the stock should re-rate upward toward peer multiples as growth continues over 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn extremely low PEG of 0.03 can also reflect unreliable or overly optimistic growth estimates baked into the calculation, rather than a genuine bargain. | ||
The stock triggered a death cross that the engine treats as a hard block, alongside failed momentum at 3.1 versus a 4.5 threshold and failed asymmetry at 0.5 versus a 1.5 threshold. Engine gate (failed) | The death cross should resolve with price reclaiming the 200-day moving average and momentum rising above 4.5 over the next several months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum notes also describe the current RSI of 33 as an uptrend pullback and buy opportunity, suggesting the death cross may be a lagging signal on an otherwise recovering trend. | ||
Gentherm has posted consecutive earnings misses in 2 of the last 4 quarters, feeding bear-case concerns about execution. Bear case | The company should post a beat with positive surprise at the next report on 2026-07-23. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe strong cash conversion at 441% of FCF-to-net-income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggest underlying fundamentals remain healthy despite the earnings misses. | ||
The stock shows a thin upside margin of just 4.2%, limiting the reward available even if the thesis plays out.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The upside margin should widen above 10% for the risk/reward to become more compelling over 12 months.
CounterA thin upside margin on an attractively valued stock with strong cash conversion may still be worth holding for income and stability rather than pure capital appreciation.
Gentherm trades at an attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 11.1x and an unusually low PEG ratio of 0.03, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its growth.
Tripped↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should stay below 15x or the stock should re-rate upward toward peer multiples as growth continues over 12 months.
CounterAn extremely low PEG of 0.03 can also reflect unreliable or overly optimistic growth estimates baked into the calculation, rather than a genuine bargain.
The stock triggered a death cross that the engine treats as a hard block, alongside failed momentum at 3.1 versus a 4.5 threshold and failed asymmetry at 0.5 versus a 1.5 threshold.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The death cross should resolve with price reclaiming the 200-day moving average and momentum rising above 4.5 over the next several months.
CounterThe momentum notes also describe the current RSI of 33 as an uptrend pullback and buy opportunity, suggesting the death cross may be a lagging signal on an otherwise recovering trend.
Gentherm has posted consecutive earnings misses in 2 of the last 4 quarters, feeding bear-case concerns about execution.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The company should post a beat with positive surprise at the next report on 2026-07-23.
CounterThe strong cash conversion at 441% of FCF-to-net-income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggest underlying fundamentals remain healthy despite the earnings misses.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.1 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 3.3 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 441% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
Momentum
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 9.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Above max pain $35
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:8.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.11
Upside
-16.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.38>1.3, MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:8.4>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 8.4; weakest: Technical at 3.6. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.4, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Quality at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Low PegTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x or PEG ratio exceeds 1.0.
- P2Death Cross Hard Block
Trip ifPrice reclaims and stays above the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive months with momentum rising above 4.5.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifCompany posts a beat with surprise above 5% at the 2026-07-23 report.
- P4Thin Upside Margin
Trip ifUpside margin widens above 10%.