Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.54
- ▸Attractively valued
TDW · Why this verdict
Why Tidewater (TDW) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tidewater earns strong margins of 22% with free cash flow at 129% of net income and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9, but revenue has declined 43% year-over-year and the company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters — including an 82% miss in the most recent quarter — while the stock price has essentially reached the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Tidewater converts 129% of net income into free cash flow, earns 22% net margins, and carries a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 — placing it in the upper tier of energy services peers on both cash quality and balance sheet health. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income and net margins remain above 18% over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEnergy services cash flows are highly sensitive to offshore oil and gas spending cycles; the 43% revenue decline signals that the market for platform supply vessels has already deteriorated significantly, which may compress margins in coming quarters. | ||
Revenue has declined 43% year-over-year, yielding a near-zero revenue growth score — a significant deterioration that raises questions about the sustainability of current margin levels and the trajectory of the core platform supply vessel business. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive on a year-over-year basis in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, signaling a cyclical recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterPlatform supply vessel utilization can recover quickly when oil prices firm or offshore drilling programs restart; the company's 8 out of 9 Piotroski score suggests the balance sheet can absorb a cyclical trough without distress. | ||
Platform supply vessels represent 72.3% of Tidewater's revenue — a single-product concentration that creates amplified exposure to offshore vessel day-rate cycles, as noted in the 10-K filing risk factors. Bear case | Platform supply vessel revenue share diversifies below 65% or day-rates for this segment rise more than 10% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDominant share in a single vessel category can be a competitive strength during up-cycles; operators with concentrated fleets can bid preferentially on large multi-vessel contracts that diversified competitors cannot fulfill. | ||
Tidewater missed earnings estimates by 82% and 41% in the last two reported quarters after two strong beats — a reversal suggesting that the operating environment has deteriorated faster than analysts anticipated. Earnings | Earnings surprise rises above 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, ending the two-quarter miss streak. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two prior beats of 206% and 20% show the company can surprise positively in favorable operating conditions; the recent misses may reflect temporary day-rate softness rather than a permanent earnings reset. | ||
Tidewater converts 129% of net income into free cash flow, earns 22% net margins, and carries a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 — placing it in the upper tier of energy services peers on both cash quality and balance sheet health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income and net margins remain above 18% over the next four reported quarters.
CounterEnergy services cash flows are highly sensitive to offshore oil and gas spending cycles; the 43% revenue decline signals that the market for platform supply vessels has already deteriorated significantly, which may compress margins in coming quarters.
Revenue has declined 43% year-over-year, yielding a near-zero revenue growth score — a significant deterioration that raises questions about the sustainability of current margin levels and the trajectory of the core platform supply vessel business.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive on a year-over-year basis in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, signaling a cyclical recovery.
CounterPlatform supply vessel utilization can recover quickly when oil prices firm or offshore drilling programs restart; the company's 8 out of 9 Piotroski score suggests the balance sheet can absorb a cyclical trough without distress.
Platform supply vessels represent 72.3% of Tidewater's revenue — a single-product concentration that creates amplified exposure to offshore vessel day-rate cycles, as noted in the 10-K filing risk factors.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Platform supply vessel revenue share diversifies below 65% or day-rates for this segment rise more than 10% over the next 12 months.
CounterDominant share in a single vessel category can be a competitive strength during up-cycles; operators with concentrated fleets can bid preferentially on large multi-vessel contracts that diversified competitors cannot fulfill.
Tidewater missed earnings estimates by 82% and 41% in the last two reported quarters after two strong beats — a reversal suggesting that the operating environment has deteriorated faster than analysts anticipated.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise rises above 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, ending the two-quarter miss streak.
CounterThe two prior beats of 206% and 20% show the company can surprise positively in favorable operating conditions; the recent misses may reflect temporary day-rate softness rather than a permanent earnings reset.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.5 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 6.9 |
| Net margin | 9.2 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 149% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 6.7 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 8.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 30%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $6,393,217 (0.166% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 8.9 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 4.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 2.1 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 15% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.68
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (3)
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.30
Upside
+13.0%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.6) with weak momentum (3.2)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 8.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.0, Value at 7.9, and Quality at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Catalyst at 3.7, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifNet margins drop below 15% in any reported quarter, more than 7 percentage points below the current 22% level.
- P2Revenue Decline Concern
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below -20% year-over-year for more than 3 consecutive reported quarters.
- P3Platform Supply Vessel Concentration
Trip ifPlatform supply vessel day-rates decline by more than 20% from current levels, signaling accelerating offshore spending cuts.
- P4Recent Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below -40% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the miss pattern is structural rather than transitory.