Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
TDC · Why this verdict
Why Teradata (TDC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Teradata generates a return on equity of 118% — placing it in the top percentile of peers on capital efficiency — alongside 25% net margins and a strong Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9, demonstrating a high-quality business delivering significant shareholder value. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 80% and net margins remain above 20% over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high return on equity can sometimes reflect a leveraged capital structure rather than pure business quality; the single-source component supplier concentration risk flagged in the 10-K annual filing could disrupt operations and compress margins. | ||
Teradata beat consensus earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 184% — driven in part by a 653% beat in the most recent May 2026 quarter — signaling that the company is consistently delivering results far above analyst expectations. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays above 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the strong beat pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 653% beat in the most recent quarter may reflect a non-recurring item that dramatically inflated the average; stripping the outlier the underlying beat average is more modest at roughly 28%, which is still strong but less exceptional. | ||
Short interest stands at 19% of the float with a short squeeze setup identified in the risk notes — meaning a significant portion of the float is bet against the stock, creating potential for a sharp upward price move if positive news catalyzes covering. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 12% within 6 months as continued earnings beats reduce the bear thesis viability. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest is often justified by fundamental concerns; in Teradata's case, the 19% short interest may reflect well-informed views on competitive threats in the data warehousing market from cloud-native competitors. | ||
At $33.62, the stock is trading above the take-profit resistance level of $36.12 on a near-term basis, with the price-to-analyst-target upside measured at only 7.4% — the risk-to-reward ratio of 1.79 suggests limited room for new entry without a pullback. Targets | Price pulls back to the entry target of $32.10 or lower, creating a risk-to-reward ratio greater than 2.0 for new buyers. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong earnings beats and improving news sentiment could attract buyers despite the limited analyst-target upside; a target upgrade from even one analyst would reset the upside calculation. | ||
Teradata generates a return on equity of 118% — placing it in the top percentile of peers on capital efficiency — alongside 25% net margins and a strong Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9, demonstrating a high-quality business delivering significant shareholder value.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 80% and net margins remain above 20% over the next four reported quarters.
CounterExtremely high return on equity can sometimes reflect a leveraged capital structure rather than pure business quality; the single-source component supplier concentration risk flagged in the 10-K annual filing could disrupt operations and compress margins.
Teradata beat consensus earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 184% — driven in part by a 653% beat in the most recent May 2026 quarter — signaling that the company is consistently delivering results far above analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays above 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the strong beat pattern.
CounterThe 653% beat in the most recent quarter may reflect a non-recurring item that dramatically inflated the average; stripping the outlier the underlying beat average is more modest at roughly 28%, which is still strong but less exceptional.
Short interest stands at 19% of the float with a short squeeze setup identified in the risk notes — meaning a significant portion of the float is bet against the stock, creating potential for a sharp upward price move if positive news catalyzes covering.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 12% within 6 months as continued earnings beats reduce the bear thesis viability.
CounterHigh short interest is often justified by fundamental concerns; in Teradata's case, the 19% short interest may reflect well-informed views on competitive threats in the data warehousing market from cloud-native competitors.
At $33.62, the stock is trading above the take-profit resistance level of $36.12 on a near-term basis, with the price-to-analyst-target upside measured at only 7.4% — the risk-to-reward ratio of 1.79 suggests limited room for new entry without a pullback.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price pulls back to the entry target of $32.10 or lower, creating a risk-to-reward ratio greater than 2.0 for new buyers.
CounterStrong earnings beats and improving news sentiment could attract buyers despite the limited analyst-target upside; a target upgrade from even one analyst would reset the upside calculation.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Teradata has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 184%, earns exceptional return on equity of 118% with 25% net margins and a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 — but 19% short interest, a high put-to-call ratio of 2.50, and a stock price already above the analyst target limit near-term entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.1 |
| Op margin | 7.7 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 118%
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 80% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,069,794 (0.094% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 9.2 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 1.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| beta | 9.5 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 19% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.46
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.81
Upside
-12.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.7; weakest: Technical at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Catalyst at 7.5, and Quality at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Insider at 3.9, and Growth at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Return On Equity
Trip ifReturn on equity drops below 50%, more than 68 percentage points below the current 118%, indicating significant capital efficiency deterioration.
- P2Massive Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, ending the beat streak.
- P3High Short Interest Squeeze Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% of the float, more than 6 percentage points above the current 19%, indicating increased bearish conviction.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifStock price rises above $40, more than 19% above the current $33.62, without a corresponding analyst target increase above $44.