Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.07
- ▸Attractively valued
TCBX · Why this verdict
Why Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Third Coast Bancshares is a fast-growing regional bank (26% YoY growth, 31% margins) with a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak at a forward P/E of 9.3x, but the price is just 3.8% below the analyst target, leaving little upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is strong at 26% YoY and the company is an industry growth leader among regional banks, with a growth peer rank of 8.1/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings growth scores only 3.8/10 versus 9.1 for revenue, so revenue growth is not translating fully into profits. | ||
Margins of 31% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 show solid profitability and improving fundamentals for a regional bank. Quality breakdown | Net margin should stay above 25% and the Piotroski score at 7 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterROA is only 0.8/10 and ROE 4.2/10, so returns on assets and equity are not as strong as the margin suggests. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $1.06 versus $1.00 expected in October 2026. Last 4 quarters | EPS should continue to meet or beat estimates in the next report in about 80 days. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats are small (3% to 6%) and the April 2026 report missed by 4.7%, so the streak is thin. | ||
A forward P/E of 9.3x and a PEG of 1.05 make the stock attractively valued, with a value peer rank of 8.2/10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 12x as earnings grow. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe analyst target is only 3.8% above the $39.89 price, so the market already prices in much of the value. | ||
The analyst target of $41.42 is only 3.8% above the $39.89 price, against 5.2% downside to the stop for a reward-to-risk of 0.74. Bear case | Analyst targets should rise above $45 or the price should pull back for a better entry. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLight analyst coverage means the target may lag the bank's growth, and price is below the 200-day average with its slope still rising. | ||
Growth is strong at 26% YoY and the company is an industry growth leader among regional banks, with a growth peer rank of 8.1/10.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth scores only 3.8/10 versus 9.1 for revenue, so revenue growth is not translating fully into profits.
Margins of 31% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 show solid profitability and improving fundamentals for a regional bank.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin should stay above 25% and the Piotroski score at 7 or higher.
CounterROA is only 0.8/10 and ROE 4.2/10, so returns on assets and equity are not as strong as the margin suggests.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $1.06 versus $1.00 expected in October 2026.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should continue to meet or beat estimates in the next report in about 80 days.
CounterBeats are small (3% to 6%) and the April 2026 report missed by 4.7%, so the streak is thin.
A forward P/E of 9.3x and a PEG of 1.05 make the stock attractively valued, with a value peer rank of 8.2/10.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 12x as earnings grow.
CounterThe analyst target is only 3.8% above the $39.89 price, so the market already prices in much of the value.
The analyst target of $41.42 is only 3.8% above the $39.89 price, against 5.2% downside to the stop for a reward-to-risk of 0.74.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise above $45 or the price should pull back for a better entry.
CounterLight analyst coverage means the target may lag the bank's growth, and price is below the 200-day average with its slope still rising.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.1 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $40,340 (0.006% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 8.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.3 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 60%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.35
Upside
+1.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.7; weakest: Momentum at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Peer rank at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 4.9, Catalyst at 5.4, and Quality at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.35 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Industry Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 12% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Margins Solid Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 22% from the current 31%.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Attractive Valuation Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 13x from the current 9.3x.
- P5Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $38.02 stop level.