Value
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
SYNA · Why this verdict
Why Synaptics (SYNA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Return on equity, return on assets, and net margin all register at zero in the quality scoring, with the overall quality score of 3.9 sitting just below the minimum acceptable threshold, indicating the business is not yet generating adequate returns on capital. Quality breakdown | The quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as operating margin turns positive and return metrics recover. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF is positive at a 12% margin with a 2.7% FCF yield, meaning the business generates real cash despite accounting losses, which is more sustainable than the zero GAAP returns suggest. | ||
A 20% short interest ratio and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.31 indicate that a meaningful segment of market participants is betting on further price declines from the current level of $140. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 15% within 6 months as profitability metrics improve and the quality floor concern is resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterShort interest in semiconductor names during downturns can be a contrarian buy signal; if the earnings beat streak continues, short covering could provide a meaningful price boost. | ||
Synaptics has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, including a 66% beat in the most recent May 2026 quarter even against a negative estimate, demonstrating resilience in earnings delivery. Earnings | The beat streak extends to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average EPS surprise remaining above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterBeating a deeply negative estimate (actual was negative $0.21 versus an estimate of negative $0.63) inflates the beat percentage without representing genuine earnings power improvement. | ||
The company's peer-relative value score of 7.2 out of 10 indicates it trades at a more attractive price-to-sales multiple than most semiconductor peers, and analyst sentiment is positive with a reported upside signal. Peer rank | The price-to-sales valuation premium relative to peers narrows by at least 10% over 12 months, as earnings recovery supports multiple expansion. | →Stable |
| CounterSemiconductor peer-relative discounts often reflect genuine growth disadvantages; a forward price-to-earnings of 26.6x is still expensive for a company with negative operating margin. | ||
Return on equity, return on assets, and net margin all register at zero in the quality scoring, with the overall quality score of 3.9 sitting just below the minimum acceptable threshold, indicating the business is not yet generating adequate returns on capital.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as operating margin turns positive and return metrics recover.
CounterFCF is positive at a 12% margin with a 2.7% FCF yield, meaning the business generates real cash despite accounting losses, which is more sustainable than the zero GAAP returns suggest.
A 20% short interest ratio and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.31 indicate that a meaningful segment of market participants is betting on further price declines from the current level of $140.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% within 6 months as profitability metrics improve and the quality floor concern is resolved.
CounterShort interest in semiconductor names during downturns can be a contrarian buy signal; if the earnings beat streak continues, short covering could provide a meaningful price boost.
Synaptics has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, including a 66% beat in the most recent May 2026 quarter even against a negative estimate, demonstrating resilience in earnings delivery.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average EPS surprise remaining above 10%.
CounterBeating a deeply negative estimate (actual was negative $0.21 versus an estimate of negative $0.63) inflates the beat percentage without representing genuine earnings power improvement.
The company's peer-relative value score of 7.2 out of 10 indicates it trades at a more attractive price-to-sales multiple than most semiconductor peers, and analyst sentiment is positive with a reported upside signal.
→StablePeer rank
- Expectation
- The price-to-sales valuation premium relative to peers narrows by at least 10% over 12 months, as earnings recovery supports multiple expansion.
CounterSemiconductor peer-relative discounts often reflect genuine growth disadvantages; a forward price-to-earnings of 26.6x is still expensive for a company with negative operating margin.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Synaptics has maintained a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and trades at a low price-to-sales multiple relative to semiconductor peers, but high short interest of 20% and a quality score just below the minimum threshold reflect real concerns about operating profitability and return metrics.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 12%, FCF yield 3.1%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.8 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 6.4 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.9 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,498,480 (0.054% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.6 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 3.5 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
| news risk | 3.5 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 19%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.86
- ▸High IV: 93%
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.39
Upside
+5.8%
Downside
14.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.96>1.3, MCap $4.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 7.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.9, Value at 7.4, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.7, Peer rank at 3.1, and Momentum at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.39 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Quarter Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, ending the beat streak.
- P2Relative Valuation Semiconductor Peers
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 35x without a corresponding improvement in operating margin, indicating the valuation has become more stretched rather than improving.
- P3Quality Below Floor Concern
Trip ifThe quality score remains below 4.0 for more than 4 consecutive reported periods, indicating no progress toward the minimum acceptable quality threshold.
- P4High Short Interest Signal
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% of float, indicating increasing conviction among short sellers beyond the current 20% level.