Value
6.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 5.2 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.45
SYBT · Why this verdict
Why Stock Yards Bancorp (SYBT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.9%, including beats ranging from 3.2% to 9.2%, demonstrating consistent and conservative guidance management. Earnings | The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average EPS surprise remaining above 3%. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks are exposed to credit quality deterioration and net interest margin compression in rate-cut cycles; even a disciplined manager can miss when macro conditions shift rapidly. | ||
Operating and net margins of 36% reflect strong efficiency in the regional banking model, and the Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals a financially healthy institution. Quality breakdown | Net margin remains above 30% over the next four reported quarters, indicating that the efficiency advantage is sustained even if rate headwinds materialize. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks with concentrated loan books are vulnerable to single-geography credit events; if the local economy softens, margins can fall sharply within one or two quarters. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 7.14 is among the highest in the financial sector and implies substantial hedging or bearish positioning by options market participants at current prices near $73. Risk breakdown | The put-to-call ratio falls below 3.0 within 6 months, signaling that bearish options positioning has unwound as confidence in the business improves. | →Stable |
| CounterIn a low-volume, small-cap regional bank, a put-to-call ratio this high may reflect a handful of institutional hedges rather than broad market consensus, and can reverse quickly. | ||
A golden cross, price above all moving averages, rising on-balance volume, and a bullish MACD confirm that short-term buying pressure is positive and the trend is intact. V9 | Price remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 of the next 9 months, confirming the breakout pattern is not a false signal. | →Stable |
| CounterWith negative 8.6% upside to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk of only 0.4, the breakout has little room to run and technical failure would quickly flip the picture negative. | ||
The bank has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.9%, including beats ranging from 3.2% to 9.2%, demonstrating consistent and conservative guidance management.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average EPS surprise remaining above 3%.
CounterRegional banks are exposed to credit quality deterioration and net interest margin compression in rate-cut cycles; even a disciplined manager can miss when macro conditions shift rapidly.
Operating and net margins of 36% reflect strong efficiency in the regional banking model, and the Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals a financially healthy institution.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 30% over the next four reported quarters, indicating that the efficiency advantage is sustained even if rate headwinds materialize.
CounterRegional banks with concentrated loan books are vulnerable to single-geography credit events; if the local economy softens, margins can fall sharply within one or two quarters.
A put-to-call ratio of 7.14 is among the highest in the financial sector and implies substantial hedging or bearish positioning by options market participants at current prices near $73.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 3.0 within 6 months, signaling that bearish options positioning has unwound as confidence in the business improves.
CounterIn a low-volume, small-cap regional bank, a put-to-call ratio this high may reflect a handful of institutional hedges rather than broad market consensus, and can reverse quickly.
A golden cross, price above all moving averages, rising on-balance volume, and a bullish MACD confirm that short-term buying pressure is positive and the trend is intact.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 of the next 9 months, confirming the breakout pattern is not a false signal.
CounterWith negative 8.6% upside to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk of only 0.4, the breakout has little room to run and technical failure would quickly flip the picture negative.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Stock Yards Bancorp has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and strong technical momentum through a golden cross setup, but an elevated put-to-call ratio of 7.14 and a negative reward-to-risk ratio signal that the market is pricing in more downside than the earnings record alone would suggest.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 3.9 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 2.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $86,300 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 3.5 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 1.3 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| beta | 8.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 164.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.21
Upside
-13.4%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 26d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 6.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.21 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.4, Value at 6.1, and Quality at 5.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Growth at 4.3, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarterly earnings reports.
- P2Regional Bank Net Margin Strength
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, indicating a meaningful deterioration of more than 10 percentage points from the current 36% level.
- P3Elevated Put Call Options Risk
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio remains above 5.0 for more than 90 consecutive days, confirming sustained institutional bearish positioning rather than a transient hedge.
- P4Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and drops more than 8% from the current level of $73.45 to below $67.57.