Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 5.6 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.35
SWKS · Why this verdict
Why Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three bullish analyst opinions arrived within seven days, a clustering pattern that historically precedes positive price re-rating in semiconductor names. Sentiment breakdown | Additional analyst upgrades or price-target increases push the consensus price target above the current level, reducing the current negative upside gap within six months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst clustering is a lagging indicator and the current price already exceeds the haircut-adjusted analyst target, suggesting the sentiment boost may already be priced in. | ||
The stock ranks attractively on price-to-earnings versus semiconductor peers, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8x while carrying a peer-relative value rank above 8 out of 10. Peer-rank breakdown | The valuation discount to peers narrows as earnings stabilize, with the forward price-to-earnings multiple expanding to at least 17x over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe discount may reflect the market correctly pricing in declining revenue of negative 1% and a mixed earnings record rather than a transient dislocation. | ||
Free cash flow is 190% of net income, demonstrating that cash generation substantially exceeds reported profits and provides a financial buffer even as reported earnings are inconsistent. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income over the next four quarters, sustaining the dividend which is covered at 372%. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh FCF conversion relative to earnings can mean aggressive non-cash charges are masking genuine operating deterioration rather than conservative accounting. | ||
A 30% short interest combined with two consecutive earnings misses in three recent quarters signals meaningful fundamental risk that short sellers appear to have correctly identified. Risk breakdown | The short interest ratio declines below 20% as earnings consistency improves, with at least 3 beats in the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest also creates a potential squeeze dynamic if the company reports a strong beat, amplifying the upside move beyond what fundamentals alone would justify. | ||
Three bullish analyst opinions arrived within seven days, a clustering pattern that historically precedes positive price re-rating in semiconductor names.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Additional analyst upgrades or price-target increases push the consensus price target above the current level, reducing the current negative upside gap within six months.
CounterAnalyst clustering is a lagging indicator and the current price already exceeds the haircut-adjusted analyst target, suggesting the sentiment boost may already be priced in.
The stock ranks attractively on price-to-earnings versus semiconductor peers, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8x while carrying a peer-relative value rank above 8 out of 10.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation discount to peers narrows as earnings stabilize, with the forward price-to-earnings multiple expanding to at least 17x over 12 months.
CounterThe discount may reflect the market correctly pricing in declining revenue of negative 1% and a mixed earnings record rather than a transient dislocation.
Free cash flow is 190% of net income, demonstrating that cash generation substantially exceeds reported profits and provides a financial buffer even as reported earnings are inconsistent.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income over the next four quarters, sustaining the dividend which is covered at 372%.
CounterHigh FCF conversion relative to earnings can mean aggressive non-cash charges are masking genuine operating deterioration rather than conservative accounting.
A 30% short interest combined with two consecutive earnings misses in three recent quarters signals meaningful fundamental risk that short sellers appear to have correctly identified.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The short interest ratio declines below 20% as earnings consistency improves, with at least 3 beats in the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterHigh short interest also creates a potential squeeze dynamic if the company reports a strong beat, amplifying the upside move beyond what fundamentals alone would justify.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Skyworks Solutions trades with favorable valuation metrics versus semiconductor peers and attracted a recent cluster of bullish analyst attention, but erratic earnings results and a 30% short interest reflect genuine uncertainty about the company's growth trajectory.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 4.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 190% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.4 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.9 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸High short interest: 29%
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 4.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.71
Upside
+9.9%
Downside
14.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 28d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.50>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.71 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Technical at 7.3, and Value at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 1.1, Momentum at 1.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Cluster Sentiment Boost
Trip ifNo additional analyst upgrades or coverage initiations occur within 60 days, and the consensus price target falls below $70, more than 8% below the current price of $76.26.
- P2Relative Valuation Peer Advantage
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple falls below 12x, indicating the valuation discount has deepened rather than narrowed over 12 months.
- P3Free Cash Flow Resilience
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P4High Short Interest Earnings Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 35% of float, indicating increasing conviction among short sellers beyond the current 30% level.