Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.4 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
SVV · Why this verdict
Why Savers Value Village (SVV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With 22% short interest and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.3 — which triggers a leverage penalty — the company is both heavily shorted and financially leveraged, creating amplified downside if operational performance disappoints. Key risks | Short interest falls below 15% within 12 months, declining more than 7 percentage points from the current 22%, as the fundamental case becomes clearer. | →Stable |
| CounterA debt-to-equity of 3.3 is common in specialty retail chains where real estate leases are capitalized; if earnings growth continues, the leverage ratio will improve naturally without debt repayment. | ||
The stock has RSI at 79, strong MACD, and rising on-balance volume, creating an overbought momentum setup combined with 22% short interest that could either accelerate upward through a short squeeze or reverse sharply once momentum exhausts. Momentum breakdown | RSI retreats to between 55 and 65 within 12 months, indicating the overbought condition resolves through consolidation rather than a sharp decline. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI can remain above 70 in genuine breakout stocks for months, and 22% short interest creates fuel for a short squeeze that could drive prices significantly above analyst targets. | ||
Analyst consensus targets imply 38% upside to approximately $14 from the current $10.14, yet the earnings record shows 1 beat, 1 miss, and 2 inline results with an average surprise of negative 40%, suggesting analyst optimism may outrun actual delivery. Sentiment breakdown | The stock price rises above $12 within 12 months as earnings delivery improves and analysts' optimism begins to be validated. | →Stable |
| CounterThe large negative average surprise is driven by a single quarter with a 169% miss; excluding that one event, the average surprise is closer to zero, and analysts may still have credible targets. | ||
Despite recovering momentum, the stock still has a death cross with a flat or negative 200-day moving average slope, indicating the underlying long-term trend has not yet reversed and the current short-term momentum may be a temporary recovery within a longer bear trend. Gates warning | The 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average within 12 months, confirming the death cross has been resolved and the longer-term trend has turned positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe current momentum score of 6.5 and a MACD that is improving suggest the recovery is already underway; the death cross label may be a lagging indicator that resolves within weeks rather than months. | ||
With 22% short interest and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.3 — which triggers a leverage penalty — the company is both heavily shorted and financially leveraged, creating amplified downside if operational performance disappoints.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% within 12 months, declining more than 7 percentage points from the current 22%, as the fundamental case becomes clearer.
CounterA debt-to-equity of 3.3 is common in specialty retail chains where real estate leases are capitalized; if earnings growth continues, the leverage ratio will improve naturally without debt repayment.
The stock has RSI at 79, strong MACD, and rising on-balance volume, creating an overbought momentum setup combined with 22% short interest that could either accelerate upward through a short squeeze or reverse sharply once momentum exhausts.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI retreats to between 55 and 65 within 12 months, indicating the overbought condition resolves through consolidation rather than a sharp decline.
CounterRSI can remain above 70 in genuine breakout stocks for months, and 22% short interest creates fuel for a short squeeze that could drive prices significantly above analyst targets.
Analyst consensus targets imply 38% upside to approximately $14 from the current $10.14, yet the earnings record shows 1 beat, 1 miss, and 2 inline results with an average surprise of negative 40%, suggesting analyst optimism may outrun actual delivery.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $12 within 12 months as earnings delivery improves and analysts' optimism begins to be validated.
CounterThe large negative average surprise is driven by a single quarter with a 169% miss; excluding that one event, the average surprise is closer to zero, and analysts may still have credible targets.
Despite recovering momentum, the stock still has a death cross with a flat or negative 200-day moving average slope, indicating the underlying long-term trend has not yet reversed and the current short-term momentum may be a temporary recovery within a longer bear trend.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- The 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average within 12 months, confirming the death cross has been resolved and the longer-term trend has turned positive.
CounterThe current momentum score of 6.5 and a MACD that is improving suggest the recovery is already underway; the death cross label may be a lagging indicator that resolves within weeks rather than months.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Savers Value Village has strong price momentum with RSI at 79 and volume accumulation, analyst targets implying 38% upside, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, but 22% short interest and a death cross on a declining moving average suggest the overbought technical condition may resolve with a pullback.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 1.2 |
| Net margin | 0.6 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $419,199 (0.027% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 3.6 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 1.7 |
- ▸High short interest: 22%
- ▸High IV: 66%
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.87
Upside
+21.7%
Downside
11.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.87 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.2, Value at 7.0, and Catalyst at 5.9; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1, Momentum at 3.6, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.87 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Overbought Momentum With Short Squeeze Potential
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 within 3 months after reaching the current 79, indicating the overbought condition has resolved into a sharp decline rather than a controlled consolidation.
- P2High Short Interest Debt Leverage
Trip ifShort interest rises above 28%, exceeding the current 22% by more than 6 percentage points.
- P3Analyst Upside Vs Mixed Earnings
Trip ifPrice drops below $8.50, more than 16% below the current $10.14, suggesting the analyst upside case is being materially repriced lower.
- P4Death Cross Underlying Trend
Trip ifThe 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average by more than 5%, deepening the death cross rather than resolving it.