Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.6 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
SVV · Why this verdict
Why Savers Value Village (SVV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Savers Value Village has strong price momentum with RSI at 79 and volume accumulation, analyst targets implying 38% upside, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, but 22% short interest and a death cross on a declining moving average suggest the overbought technical condition may resolve with a pullback.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With 22% short interest and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.3 — which triggers a leverage penalty — the company is both heavily shorted and financially leveraged, creating amplified downside if operational performance disappoints. Key risks | Short interest falls below 15% within 12 months, declining more than 7 percentage points from the current 22%, as the fundamental case becomes clearer. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA debt-to-equity of 3.3 is common in specialty retail chains where real estate leases are capitalized; if earnings growth continues, the leverage ratio will improve naturally without debt repayment. | ||
The stock has RSI at 79, strong MACD, and rising on-balance volume, creating an overbought momentum setup combined with 22% short interest that could either accelerate upward through a short squeeze or reverse sharply once momentum exhausts. Momentum breakdown | RSI retreats to between 55 and 65 within 12 months, indicating the overbought condition resolves through consolidation rather than a sharp decline. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI can remain above 70 in genuine breakout stocks for months, and 22% short interest creates fuel for a short squeeze that could drive prices significantly above analyst targets. | ||
Analyst consensus targets imply 38% upside to approximately $14 from the current $10.14, yet the earnings record shows 1 beat, 1 miss, and 2 inline results with an average surprise of negative 40%, suggesting analyst optimism may outrun actual delivery. Sentiment breakdown | The stock price rises above $12 within 12 months as earnings delivery improves and analysts' optimism begins to be validated. | →Stable |
| CounterThe large negative average surprise is driven by a single quarter with a 169% miss; excluding that one event, the average surprise is closer to zero, and analysts may still have credible targets. | ||
Despite recovering momentum, the stock still has a death cross with a flat or negative 200-day moving average slope, indicating the underlying long-term trend has not yet reversed and the current short-term momentum may be a temporary recovery within a longer bear trend. Gates warning | The 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average within 12 months, confirming the death cross has been resolved and the longer-term trend has turned positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe current momentum score of 6.5 and a MACD that is improving suggest the recovery is already underway; the death cross label may be a lagging indicator that resolves within weeks rather than months. | ||
With 22% short interest and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.3 — which triggers a leverage penalty — the company is both heavily shorted and financially leveraged, creating amplified downside if operational performance disappoints.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% within 12 months, declining more than 7 percentage points from the current 22%, as the fundamental case becomes clearer.
CounterA debt-to-equity of 3.3 is common in specialty retail chains where real estate leases are capitalized; if earnings growth continues, the leverage ratio will improve naturally without debt repayment.
The stock has RSI at 79, strong MACD, and rising on-balance volume, creating an overbought momentum setup combined with 22% short interest that could either accelerate upward through a short squeeze or reverse sharply once momentum exhausts.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI retreats to between 55 and 65 within 12 months, indicating the overbought condition resolves through consolidation rather than a sharp decline.
CounterRSI can remain above 70 in genuine breakout stocks for months, and 22% short interest creates fuel for a short squeeze that could drive prices significantly above analyst targets.
Analyst consensus targets imply 38% upside to approximately $14 from the current $10.14, yet the earnings record shows 1 beat, 1 miss, and 2 inline results with an average surprise of negative 40%, suggesting analyst optimism may outrun actual delivery.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $12 within 12 months as earnings delivery improves and analysts' optimism begins to be validated.
CounterThe large negative average surprise is driven by a single quarter with a 169% miss; excluding that one event, the average surprise is closer to zero, and analysts may still have credible targets.
Despite recovering momentum, the stock still has a death cross with a flat or negative 200-day moving average slope, indicating the underlying long-term trend has not yet reversed and the current short-term momentum may be a temporary recovery within a longer bear trend.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- The 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average within 12 months, confirming the death cross has been resolved and the longer-term trend has turned positive.
CounterThe current momentum score of 6.5 and a MACD that is improving suggest the recovery is already underway; the death cross label may be a lagging indicator that resolves within weeks rather than months.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 151% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 5.3 |
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $7,428,244 (0.473% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 4.6 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.1 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 1.8 |
- ▸High short interest: 18%
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.5 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
- INSIDER:0.47%=HEAVY
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.97
Upside
+23.3%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 1.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5, INSIDER:0.47%=HEAVY) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.97 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Technical at 6.5, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.2, Momentum at 2.2, and Catalyst at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Overbought Momentum With Short Squeeze Potential
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 within 3 months after reaching the current 79, indicating the overbought condition has resolved into a sharp decline rather than a controlled consolidation.
- P2High Short Interest Debt Leverage
Trip ifShort interest rises above 28%, exceeding the current 22% by more than 6 percentage points.
- P3Analyst Upside Vs Mixed Earnings
Trip ifPrice drops below $8.50, more than 16% below the current $10.14, suggesting the analyst upside case is being materially repriced lower.
- P4Death Cross Underlying Trend
Trip ifThe 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average by more than 5%, deepening the death cross rather than resolving it.