Value
9.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
SUPV · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Grupo Supervielle screens as deeply cheap with a constructive uptrend pullback, but a below-floor quality score, a string of earnings misses, and C-level insider selling temper the value case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality sits far below the engine's floor at 1.3 versus a 4.0 minimum, with quality notes citing no competitive moat and broad quality concerns. Bear case | The quality score should climb toward 4.0 as fundamental scoring stabilizes. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 5.6 is only moderately weak, suggesting some fundamental support beneath the very low headline quality score. | ||
Shares trade at a forward P/E of 7.1x and an extremely low PEG of 0.02, with value scoring flagging the stock as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should stay below 10x while earnings estimates hold, supporting a re-rating toward the sector average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterConsistent earnings misses across the last 4 quarters, averaging a -274% surprise, suggest the cheap valuation may reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than a bargain. | ||
Momentum notes flag an uptrend pullback with RSI at 34, characterized as a buy opportunity, while the stock still trades above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 50 within the next two months as the pullback resolves within the broader uptrend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe momentum gate failed at 4.1 versus the 4.5 threshold, showing the engine views the current pullback as a genuine risk rather than purely a buying opportunity. | ||
Insider selling of $82,620, though low in materiality, includes a C-level sale that contributes to an overall bearish insider signal. Insider breakdown | The insider signal should shift from bearish toward neutral as insider transactions moderate over the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe dollar value is small relative to market cap (0.009%), so a single C-level sale may not represent a meaningful read on management's confidence. | ||
Quality sits far below the engine's floor at 1.3 versus a 4.0 minimum, with quality notes citing no competitive moat and broad quality concerns.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The quality score should climb toward 4.0 as fundamental scoring stabilizes.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 5.6 is only moderately weak, suggesting some fundamental support beneath the very low headline quality score.
Shares trade at a forward P/E of 7.1x and an extremely low PEG of 0.02, with value scoring flagging the stock as attractively valued.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should stay below 10x while earnings estimates hold, supporting a re-rating toward the sector average.
CounterConsistent earnings misses across the last 4 quarters, averaging a -274% surprise, suggest the cheap valuation may reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than a bargain.
Momentum notes flag an uptrend pullback with RSI at 34, characterized as a buy opportunity, while the stock still trades above its 200-day moving average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 50 within the next two months as the pullback resolves within the broader uptrend.
CounterThe momentum gate failed at 4.1 versus the 4.5 threshold, showing the engine views the current pullback as a genuine risk rather than purely a buying opportunity.
Insider selling of $82,620, though low in materiality, includes a C-level sale that contributes to an overall bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift from bearish toward neutral as insider transactions moderate over the next quarter.
CounterThe dollar value is small relative to market cap (0.009%), so a single C-level sale may not represent a meaningful read on management's confidence.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.5 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $82,620 (0.009% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 10.0 |
| quality rank | 0.1 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 139%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.20
Upside
+15.4%
Downside
12.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.2<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 9.4 and asymmetric R:R of 1.20.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.4, Sentiment at 6.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.8; the weakest are Quality at 1.3, Catalyst at 2.5, and Growth at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 7.1x.
- P2Uptrend Pullback Opportunity
Trip ifRSI stays below 30 for 2 consecutive months, failing to confirm the pullback thesis.
- P3Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4C Level Insider Selling
Trip ifC-level insider selling exceeds $500,000 over the next 90 days.