Value
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
SUPV · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Grupo Supervielle trades at a forward P/E of 5.1x with 59.4% upside to the analyst target after a 52% drawdown, but quality is very weak, earnings misses dominate and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 1.5/10, below the 4.0 floor, with ROE, ROA and net margin all scoring 0 and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Return on equity should turn positive and quality should rise above 3.0. | →Stable |
| CounterInflation accounting in the home market can distort ratios, so the weak quality score may be overstated. | ||
Forward P/E is 5.1x and PEG is 0.02, so the stock is attractively valued after a 52% drawdown from its high. Valuation breakdown | Price should move toward the $10.27 analyst target from $6.44 if earnings stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple on a bank with quality at 1.5/10 and volatile earnings may be a value trap reflecting country risk. | ||
Momentum is 3.6/10, with a death cross, price below the 200-day average with its slope down 6.7% over 30 days, falling on-balance volume and a volume surge of 2.2x on selloffs. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and on-balance volume should turn up. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe downtrend is confirmed, so the stock could keep falling toward or past the $6.18 stop level before any recovery. | ||
EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a -$0.40 loss in November 2025, with an average surprise of -241%. Last 4 quarters | EPS should stay above the estimate after the +$0.28 beat in August 2026. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent report beat by 79%, which could mark a turnaround, but a single beat does not show a pattern. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 4.00 and implied volatility is 102%, showing heavy bearish positioning. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should drop below 1.5 and implied volatility should fall below 70%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHeavy put buying alongside 7.8 short-interest score can set up a squeeze if the earnings on 2026-11-17 surprise to the upside. | ||
Quality is 1.5/10, below the 4.0 floor, with ROE, ROA and net margin all scoring 0 and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity should turn positive and quality should rise above 3.0.
CounterInflation accounting in the home market can distort ratios, so the weak quality score may be overstated.
Forward P/E is 5.1x and PEG is 0.02, so the stock is attractively valued after a 52% drawdown from its high.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $10.27 analyst target from $6.44 if earnings stabilize.
CounterA low multiple on a bank with quality at 1.5/10 and volatile earnings may be a value trap reflecting country risk.
Momentum is 3.6/10, with a death cross, price below the 200-day average with its slope down 6.7% over 30 days, falling on-balance volume and a volume surge of 2.2x on selloffs.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and on-balance volume should turn up.
CounterThe downtrend is confirmed, so the stock could keep falling toward or past the $6.18 stop level before any recovery.
EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a -$0.40 loss in November 2025, with an average surprise of -241%.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should stay above the estimate after the +$0.28 beat in August 2026.
CounterThe most recent report beat by 79%, which could mark a turnaround, but a single beat does not show a pattern.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 4.00 and implied volatility is 102%, showing heavy bearish positioning.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should drop below 1.5 and implied volatility should fall below 70%.
CounterHeavy put buying alongside 7.8 short-interest score can set up a squeeze if the earnings on 2026-11-17 surprise to the upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
3.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 94%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.9 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.00
- ▸High IV: 162%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:5.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.12
Upside
+68.8%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -55% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.7<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.8 and asymmetric R:R of 5.12.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.8, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Quality at 1.5, Catalyst at 2.5, and Momentum at 2.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value After Drawdown
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 9x from the current 5.1x.
- P2Confirmed DowntrendTripped
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $6.18 stop level.
- P3Frequent Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score stays below 2.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Bearish Options Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio exceeds 6 from the current 4.00.