Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
SUJA · Why this verdict
Why Suja Life (SUJA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Suja Life is a small beverage maker with strong recent earnings beats, heavy insider buying and a wide gap to the analyst target, but thin margins, a market cap below the engine's minimum and a 48% drawdown keep it speculative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Insiders bought in 22 transactions with no sells, a net 3,435,537 shares over 90 days, a clear bullish signal. Insider buying | Insider net buying continues and no sells appear over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterShare-count purchases carry no dollar value in the data, and buying in a small, illiquid, down 48% stock may be averaging down rather than conviction. | ||
Quality is mediocre at 4.7: net margin is scored at zero and operating margin at 2.2, and the $375M market cap sits below the engine's $400M minimum. Warnings | Operating margin improves and market cap crosses the $400M minimum within 12 months. | — |
| CounterA very small cap with revenue down sequentially from 107M to 83.9M may stay outside the investable universe regardless of earnings. | ||
Both recent quarters beat estimates, including a swing to 1.05 actual EPS in the August 2026 quarter against a -0.08 estimate. Last 4 quarters | EPS stays positive and beats estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | — |
| CounterThe 1,417% surprise reflects a near-zero or negative estimate and may include one-time items, so it overstates durable profitability. | ||
The price is 65.0% below the analyst target, giving an asymmetry ratio of 4.34 against 15.0% downside, with a forward P/E of 23.3x and a PEG of 0.15. Estimated upside | Price closes a substantial part of the gap to the 16.01 target. | — |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target is dampened as a signal, and the stock is 48% off its 52-week high with falling on-balance volume. | ||
Insiders bought in 22 transactions with no sells, a net 3,435,537 shares over 90 days, a clear bullish signal.
—Insider buying
- Expectation
- Insider net buying continues and no sells appear over the next 12 months.
CounterShare-count purchases carry no dollar value in the data, and buying in a small, illiquid, down 48% stock may be averaging down rather than conviction.
Quality is mediocre at 4.7: net margin is scored at zero and operating margin at 2.2, and the $375M market cap sits below the engine's $400M minimum.
—Warnings
- Expectation
- Operating margin improves and market cap crosses the $400M minimum within 12 months.
CounterA very small cap with revenue down sequentially from 107M to 83.9M may stay outside the investable universe regardless of earnings.
Both recent quarters beat estimates, including a swing to 1.05 actual EPS in the August 2026 quarter against a -0.08 estimate.
—Last 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS stays positive and beats estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe 1,417% surprise reflects a near-zero or negative estimate and may include one-time items, so it overstates durable profitability.
The price is 65.0% below the analyst target, giving an asymmetry ratio of 4.34 against 15.0% downside, with a forward P/E of 23.3x and a PEG of 0.15.
—Estimated upside
- Expectation
- Price closes a substantial part of the gap to the 16.01 target.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target is dampened as a signal, and the stock is 48% off its 52-week high with falling on-balance volume.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 5.7 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 10.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 95%
Insider
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $29,042,164 (7.973% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 0.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $364M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
4.65
Upside
+69.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -49% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Sentiment at 8.6 and asymmetric R:R of 4.65.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.6, Insider at 8.5, and Value at 8.1; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Momentum at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beats Profit Inflection
Trip ifQuarterly EPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Heavy Insider Accumulation
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds 1,000,000 shares over a 90-day window.
- P3Wide Analyst Target Gap
Trip ifPrice falls below the 9.02 stop-loss, more than 7% under the current 9.70.
- P4Thin Margins Below Size Minimum
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below 75M for 2 consecutive quarters.