Value
8.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
SUJA · Why this verdict
Why Suja Life (SUJA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Suja Life is a small-cap non-alcoholic beverage company with heavy insider buying, strong earnings beats and a strong Piotroski score, but a $380M market cap, weak price momentum and a 47% drawdown keep it speculative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price momentum is poor at 2.1/10 with falling on-balance volume, the stock is 47% off its 52-week high, and market cap of $380M is below the $400M investable minimum. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and market cap should move above $400M within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDistribution volume and the deep drawdown can persist, and small-cap liquidity limits institutional buying. | ||
Financial health is solid, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a current-ratio component of 5.6, even though margins are thin. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or higher and net margin should improve from near zero over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOperating margin scores only 2.2 and net margin 0.0, and the peer quality rank is 0.0, so profitability lags peers badly. | ||
Insiders have bought $29,042,164 of stock (7.641% of market cap) across 22 purchases in 90 days with zero sales, a strong conviction signal. Insider breakdown | Insiders should keep net buying with no meaningful selling over the next 12 months, and institutions should keep accumulating. | →Stable |
| CounterConcentrated purchases by a few holders at a drawdown price can reflect a controlling holder averaging down rather than independent conviction about the business. | ||
The company beat estimates in both recent reported quarters (EPS 1.05 vs -0.08 estimated, and 0.23 vs 0.20), showing earnings are running ahead of expectations. Earnings | EPS should continue to meet or beat consensus in the next quarters, including the report due 2026-11-10. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe huge 1417% surprise came off a negative estimate and may include one-off items, and revenue of $83.9M fell from $107.1M in the prior quarter. | ||
Analyst upside of 87% and a take-profit of $16.01 versus the $9.84 price imply large re-rating potential, with a PEG of 0.15. Sentiment breakdown | Price should move toward the $16.01 analyst target as earnings growth is delivered over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the signal is dampened, and the forward P/E of 23.6x is not cheap in absolute terms. | ||
Price momentum is poor at 2.1/10 with falling on-balance volume, the stock is 47% off its 52-week high, and market cap of $380M is below the $400M investable minimum.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and market cap should move above $400M within 12 months.
CounterDistribution volume and the deep drawdown can persist, and small-cap liquidity limits institutional buying.
Financial health is solid, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a current-ratio component of 5.6, even though margins are thin.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or higher and net margin should improve from near zero over 12 months.
CounterOperating margin scores only 2.2 and net margin 0.0, and the peer quality rank is 0.0, so profitability lags peers badly.
Insiders have bought $29,042,164 of stock (7.641% of market cap) across 22 purchases in 90 days with zero sales, a strong conviction signal.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insiders should keep net buying with no meaningful selling over the next 12 months, and institutions should keep accumulating.
CounterConcentrated purchases by a few holders at a drawdown price can reflect a controlling holder averaging down rather than independent conviction about the business.
The company beat estimates in both recent reported quarters (EPS 1.05 vs -0.08 estimated, and 0.23 vs 0.20), showing earnings are running ahead of expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should continue to meet or beat consensus in the next quarters, including the report due 2026-11-10.
CounterThe huge 1417% surprise came off a negative estimate and may include one-off items, and revenue of $83.9M fell from $107.1M in the prior quarter.
Analyst upside of 87% and a take-profit of $16.01 versus the $9.84 price imply large re-rating potential, with a PEG of 0.15.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $16.01 analyst target as earnings growth is delivered over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the signal is dampened, and the forward P/E of 23.6x is not cheap in absolute terms.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 2.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 5.9 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 2.9 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Negative news sentiment (-0.43)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 76%
Insider
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $25,538,368 (9.392% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $272M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:107d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.55
Upside
+53.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 28, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -62% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.5<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.8 and asymmetric R:R of 3.55.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Insider at 8.5, and Catalyst at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Peer rank at 3.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Heavy Insider Accumulation
Trip ifInsider sell count exceeds 3 transactions in a 90-day window, or net insider buying falls below $1M.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in 2 consecutive quarters, or quarterly revenue falls below $75M.
- P3Quality Balance Sheet Strength
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 from the current 8.
- P4Valuation And Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $12 from the current $16.01.
- P5Weak Momentum Small Cap
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 2.0 for 2 consecutive quarters, from the current 2.1.