Value
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.6 |
| PEG | 1.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.9x
- ▸PEG: 7.90
STVN · Why this verdict
Why Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Stevanato Group has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with consistent 5-10% upside surprises and analyst targets implying 28% price upside, but the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross and free cash flow that is negative 40% relative to net income, creating a gap between earnings quality and analyst optimism.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Stevanato has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with surprises of 5.5% to 10.5%, and analysts have price targets implying approximately 28% upside from current levels near $16.63. Sentiment breakdown | The stock price rises above $20, more than 20% above the current $16.63, within 12 months as analysts' targets are approached. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price targets in mid-cap healthcare device companies are often set before deteriorating momentum is fully reflected; targets may be revised lower before the stock reaches them. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, RSI of 31, MACD bearish, all moving averages declining, and the 200-day moving average sloping negative at 4.2% per month, indicating sustained selling pressure across multiple timeframes. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 45 and the 50-day moving average begins to narrow the gap with the 200-day moving average within 12 months, signaling early trend reversal. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStocks in confirmed downtrends can reverse sharply when a catalyst like better-than-expected earnings emerges; the 3-quarter beat streak suggests the fundamental business is not as weak as momentum implies. | ||
Free cash flow is negative 40% relative to net income, meaning the company is generating significantly less actual cash than reported earnings suggest, which is a meaningful earnings quality warning for a medical instruments business. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves to better than negative 10%, indicating the gap between reported earnings and cash generation narrows substantially within 12 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA negative FCF-to-earnings ratio can reflect heavy capital investment in capacity expansion that will eventually generate returns; if the capex is productive, future free cash flow could significantly exceed current net income. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates strong balance sheet health across leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency signals, which contrasts with the weak ROE and ROA and suggests the business fundamentals remain sound even as returns on capital are below average. Components | Return on equity improves to above 8%, doubling from current levels, within 12 months as profitability metrics catch up with balance sheet strength. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski F-Score in isolation can give false comfort; low ROE and ROA alongside a high F-Score may simply mean the company is liquid and solvent but not efficiently deploying its capital. | ||
Stevanato has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with surprises of 5.5% to 10.5%, and analysts have price targets implying approximately 28% upside from current levels near $16.63.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $20, more than 20% above the current $16.63, within 12 months as analysts' targets are approached.
CounterAnalyst price targets in mid-cap healthcare device companies are often set before deteriorating momentum is fully reflected; targets may be revised lower before the stock reaches them.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, RSI of 31, MACD bearish, all moving averages declining, and the 200-day moving average sloping negative at 4.2% per month, indicating sustained selling pressure across multiple timeframes.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 45 and the 50-day moving average begins to narrow the gap with the 200-day moving average within 12 months, signaling early trend reversal.
CounterStocks in confirmed downtrends can reverse sharply when a catalyst like better-than-expected earnings emerges; the 3-quarter beat streak suggests the fundamental business is not as weak as momentum implies.
Free cash flow is negative 40% relative to net income, meaning the company is generating significantly less actual cash than reported earnings suggest, which is a meaningful earnings quality warning for a medical instruments business.
Tripped→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves to better than negative 10%, indicating the gap between reported earnings and cash generation narrows substantially within 12 months.
CounterA negative FCF-to-earnings ratio can reflect heavy capital investment in capacity expansion that will eventually generate returns; if the capex is productive, future free cash flow could significantly exceed current net income.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates strong balance sheet health across leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency signals, which contrasts with the weak ROE and ROA and suggests the business fundamentals remain sound even as returns on capital are below average.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Return on equity improves to above 8%, doubling from current levels, within 12 months as profitability metrics catch up with balance sheet strength.
CounterA high Piotroski F-Score in isolation can give false comfort; low ROE and ROA alongside a high F-Score may simply mean the company is liquid and solvent but not efficiently deploying its capital.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 5.7 |
| Net margin | 5.9 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -40% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 2.6 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $102,061 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 3.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 2.2 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| implied vol | 0.1 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸High IV: 80%
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.77
Upside
+9.8%
Downside
12.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 12d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.77 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.8, Catalyst at 6.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 3.3, Technical at 3.5, and Momentum at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $17, declining more than 20% from the current implied target near $21.22.
- P2Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $13, more than 22% below the current $16.63, deepening the downtrend below the current stop level.
- P3Fcf Earnings Quality DivergenceTripped
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below negative 60% of net income, worsening more than 20 percentage points from the current negative 40%.
- P4High Piotroski Versus Weak Returns
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 2%, declining more than 1 percentage point from current levels, indicating further deterioration in capital returns.