Value
6.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.63
STBA · Why this verdict
Why S&T Bancorp (STBA) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
S&T Bancorp has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 of the past 4 quarters with a consistent 4 to 8% positive surprise margin, maintaining a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but the stock has surpassed analyst price targets and trades at negative indicated upside, leaving limited room for near-term appreciation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
S&T Bancorp has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.8%, demonstrating reliable execution above analyst expectations in a challenging regional banking environment. Earnings | The bank continues to beat consensus EPS by at least 3% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as net interest income and credit quality remain stable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe beat margins have been narrow at 1 to 8%, and rising credit costs from any deterioration in the commercial or consumer loan book could turn the beat streak into a miss. | ||
S&T earns a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, reflecting strong profitability, balance sheet improvement, and liquidity across eight of nine quality criteria. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains above 7 for the next 4 consecutive quarters, confirming sustained fundamental quality. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski F-Score is backward-looking; a regional bank with two medium-concentration risks noted in its annual report filings could see score deterioration if credit costs rise or capital ratios tighten. | ||
Revenue growth of only 3.5% and earnings growth of 3.6% year-over-year are below the regional banking peer median, constraining the case for multiple expansion beyond current levels. Bear case | Revenue growth accelerates to at least 6% year-over-year over the next 12 months as loan growth or rate tailwinds expand net interest income. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSmall regional banks in mature markets often grow slower than larger peers due to limited geographic expansion options and competitive pressure from larger institutions on deposit pricing. | ||
The stock has moved well above analyst consensus price targets, with indicated upside of approximately negative 16% and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.22, making the near-term return case highly asymmetric to the downside. Targets | Analyst consensus price target is revised up to above $54, more than 14% above current price, following positive earnings revisions over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout guidance upgrades or a transformational catalyst, the stock is likely to retrace toward analyst targets or the stop-loss level, eroding recent gains. | ||
S&T Bancorp has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.8%, demonstrating reliable execution above analyst expectations in a challenging regional banking environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The bank continues to beat consensus EPS by at least 3% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as net interest income and credit quality remain stable.
CounterThe beat margins have been narrow at 1 to 8%, and rising credit costs from any deterioration in the commercial or consumer loan book could turn the beat streak into a miss.
S&T earns a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, reflecting strong profitability, balance sheet improvement, and liquidity across eight of nine quality criteria.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains above 7 for the next 4 consecutive quarters, confirming sustained fundamental quality.
CounterPiotroski F-Score is backward-looking; a regional bank with two medium-concentration risks noted in its annual report filings could see score deterioration if credit costs rise or capital ratios tighten.
Revenue growth of only 3.5% and earnings growth of 3.6% year-over-year are below the regional banking peer median, constraining the case for multiple expansion beyond current levels.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth accelerates to at least 6% year-over-year over the next 12 months as loan growth or rate tailwinds expand net interest income.
CounterSmall regional banks in mature markets often grow slower than larger peers due to limited geographic expansion options and competitive pressure from larger institutions on deposit pricing.
The stock has moved well above analyst consensus price targets, with indicated upside of approximately negative 16% and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.22, making the near-term return case highly asymmetric to the downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target is revised up to above $54, more than 14% above current price, following positive earnings revisions over the next 12 months.
CounterWithout guidance upgrades or a transformational catalyst, the stock is likely to retrace toward analyst targets or the stop-loss level, eroding recent gains.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.6 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 3.8 |
| volatility | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| beta | 8.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.44
Upside
-15.4%
Downside
6.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Insider at 7.3 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 3.5, Peer rank at 3.8, and Technical at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.44 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the 4-quarter streak of positive beats.
- P2Strong Piotroski Quality Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 in any reported quarter over the next 12 months, signaling meaningful quality deterioration.
- P3Weak Growth Limits Re Rating
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 2% year-over-year in any reported quarter over the next 12 months, confirming the growth constraint is worsening.
- P4Analyst Target Surpassed No Upside
Trip ifStock price drops below $43, more than 9% below the current $47.26, without analyst price target upgrades above $50 within 45 days.