Value
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
SSRM · Why this verdict
Why SSR Mining (SSRM) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SSR Mining has delivered three earnings beats in four quarters with an average positive surprise of 53% and trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 5.9x with 84% year-over-year earnings growth, but a failed materials cycle peak gate and deeply negative free cash flow raise questions about whether current earnings reflect sustainable production economics.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
SSR Mining has beaten consensus EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 53.2%, and year-over-year earnings growth stands at 84%, reflecting a strong operating leverage to gold prices. Earnings | The company beats consensus earnings in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise exceeding 20%, sustaining the beat pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings beats in gold miners frequently track spot gold price surprises rather than operational improvements; if gold prices mean-revert, the earnings beat pattern may reverse sharply. | ||
The forward price-to-earnings ratio of 5.9x relative to a trailing multiple that is materially higher (forward-to-trailing ratio of 0.53x) signals that forward earnings estimates may be elevated by current gold prices and carry mean-reversion risk. Warnings | Forward EPS estimates remain within 10% of current consensus levels over the next 12 months, validating that the cycle-peak warning is not materializing. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGold mining forward estimates built on elevated spot prices are notoriously difficult to sustain across commodity cycles; even a 15% gold price decline would likely reset consensus estimates downward by more than the current forward multiple suggests. | ||
Free cash flow is deeply negative at -662% of net income, meaning reported earnings are massively disconnected from actual cash generation, a pattern that requires capital raises or debt increases to sustain operations. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive or improves to at least -50% of net income within 12 months as capital expenditure normalizes following a construction or mine-development phase. | →Stable |
| CounterPersistent negative free cash flow in gold miners often reflects multi-year capital investment cycles; the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests the balance sheet is not yet stressed, but the trajectory requires monitoring. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.5 combined with negative free cash flow flags SSR Mining as carrying value-trap characteristics, where cheap multiples may reflect appropriately discounted financial risk rather than opportunity. Bear case | Debt-to-equity falls below 1.2 over the next 12 months through free cash flow improvement or voluntary debt repayment. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAt 5.9x forward earnings, the valuation discount is already substantial; if gold prices hold or rise, the company can service its debt and the leverage may prove manageable rather than existential. | ||
SSR Mining has beaten consensus EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 53.2%, and year-over-year earnings growth stands at 84%, reflecting a strong operating leverage to gold prices.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus earnings in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise exceeding 20%, sustaining the beat pattern.
CounterEarnings beats in gold miners frequently track spot gold price surprises rather than operational improvements; if gold prices mean-revert, the earnings beat pattern may reverse sharply.
The forward price-to-earnings ratio of 5.9x relative to a trailing multiple that is materially higher (forward-to-trailing ratio of 0.53x) signals that forward earnings estimates may be elevated by current gold prices and carry mean-reversion risk.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Forward EPS estimates remain within 10% of current consensus levels over the next 12 months, validating that the cycle-peak warning is not materializing.
CounterGold mining forward estimates built on elevated spot prices are notoriously difficult to sustain across commodity cycles; even a 15% gold price decline would likely reset consensus estimates downward by more than the current forward multiple suggests.
Free cash flow is deeply negative at -662% of net income, meaning reported earnings are massively disconnected from actual cash generation, a pattern that requires capital raises or debt increases to sustain operations.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive or improves to at least -50% of net income within 12 months as capital expenditure normalizes following a construction or mine-development phase.
CounterPersistent negative free cash flow in gold miners often reflects multi-year capital investment cycles; the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests the balance sheet is not yet stressed, but the trajectory requires monitoring.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.5 combined with negative free cash flow flags SSR Mining as carrying value-trap characteristics, where cheap multiples may reflect appropriately discounted financial risk rather than opportunity.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity falls below 1.2 over the next 12 months through free cash flow improvement or voluntary debt repayment.
CounterAt 5.9x forward earnings, the valuation discount is already substantial; if gold prices hold or rise, the company can service its debt and the leverage may prove manageable rather than existential.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -662% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 84% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 54%
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.8 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.8 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 10 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:10d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
3.11
Upside
+34.1%
Downside
11.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 10d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Peer rank at 5.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.1, and Sentiment at 7.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 5.3, Momentum at 5.4, and Technical at 5.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.11 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Momentum 84pct Growth
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the beat pattern has reversed as gold prices or production volumes disappoint.
- P2Materials Cycle Peak Valuation Risk
Trip ifForward EPS consensus estimates are revised down by more than 20% from current levels within any 6-month window over the next 12 months.
- P3Negative Free Cash Flow Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow remains below -200% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the capital cycle is not improving as expected.
- P4High Leverage Value Trap Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 2.0, more than 33% higher than the current 1.5, signaling financial stress is increasing rather than declining.