Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.98
- ▸Attractively valued
SNX · Why this verdict
Why TD SYNNEX (SNX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
TD SYNNEX converts 123% of net income to free cash flow, demonstrating that despite thin distribution margins, the business generates real cash at a rate exceeding reported profits — a positive indicator for capital allocation flexibility. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA quality score of 3.9 (just below the 4.0 minimum floor) reflects that thin gross and operating margins in technology distribution create fragile earnings quality that can deteriorate quickly with pricing pressure. | ||
TD SYNNEX has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 20.5%, and the next earnings report is in 9 days — the combination of a perfect beat track record and an imminent catalyst creates a near-term event-driven setup. Earnings | The company extends its beat streak to 5 consecutive quarters in the imminent earnings report, with EPS surprise above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock already trades well above analyst targets with negative 19% asymmetry, meaning even a strong beat may be priced in at current levels, limiting the upside from a positive surprise. | ||
RSI is at 79 (near the top of overbought territory), MACD is bullish, on-balance volume is accumulating, and the stock trades in the 98th percentile of its 52-week range — all confirming strong institutional buying momentum. Momentum breakdown | The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average through the earnings report and for at least 3 more months following a positive beat. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at 79 is deep in overbought territory and Bollinger Band and support/resistance scores are very low, indicating the stock is technically extended and vulnerable to a sharp pullback if the earnings fail to exceed elevated expectations. | ||
With the stock trading at $284.65 against an analyst target of $281.25, the current price is already above consensus fair value — producing negative 1.2% upside and an unfavorable risk-reward of -0.17x at entry. Warnings | Analyst consensus price targets are raised above $330, restoring at least 15% upside from the current price, following a strong earnings beat. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnology distribution companies in strong AI hardware cycle tailwinds have historically traded above analyst targets for extended periods when end-market demand sustains multiple earnings beats. | ||
TD SYNNEX converts 123% of net income to free cash flow, demonstrating that despite thin distribution margins, the business generates real cash at a rate exceeding reported profits — a positive indicator for capital allocation flexibility.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterA quality score of 3.9 (just below the 4.0 minimum floor) reflects that thin gross and operating margins in technology distribution create fragile earnings quality that can deteriorate quickly with pricing pressure.
TD SYNNEX has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 20.5%, and the next earnings report is in 9 days — the combination of a perfect beat track record and an imminent catalyst creates a near-term event-driven setup.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company extends its beat streak to 5 consecutive quarters in the imminent earnings report, with EPS surprise above 10%.
CounterThe stock already trades well above analyst targets with negative 19% asymmetry, meaning even a strong beat may be priced in at current levels, limiting the upside from a positive surprise.
RSI is at 79 (near the top of overbought territory), MACD is bullish, on-balance volume is accumulating, and the stock trades in the 98th percentile of its 52-week range — all confirming strong institutional buying momentum.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average through the earnings report and for at least 3 more months following a positive beat.
CounterRSI at 79 is deep in overbought territory and Bollinger Band and support/resistance scores are very low, indicating the stock is technically extended and vulnerable to a sharp pullback if the earnings fail to exceed elevated expectations.
With the stock trading at $284.65 against an analyst target of $281.25, the current price is already above consensus fair value — producing negative 1.2% upside and an unfavorable risk-reward of -0.17x at entry.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets are raised above $330, restoring at least 15% upside from the current price, following a strong earnings beat.
CounterTechnology distribution companies in strong AI hardware cycle tailwinds have historically traded above analyst targets for extended periods when end-market demand sustains multiple earnings beats.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TD SYNNEX has a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with earnings in 9 days, strong positive momentum with RSI at 79, and positive LLM news sentiment of +0.58 across 10 recent articles, but trades well above analyst targets with negative asymmetry and below-floor business quality from thin distribution margins.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.1 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 2.1 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 26% FCF/NI
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 31% YoY
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 28)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $8,240,918 (0.042% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
Technical
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 1.3 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.81
- ▸High IV: 62%
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 78.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.85
Upside
+17.3%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.44>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 8.7, and Value at 7.8; the weakest are Quality at 3.1, Momentum at 3.3, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.85 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Beat Streak Imminent Catalyst
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the imminent earnings report or in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the established perfect beat streak.
- P2Strong Momentum At 52w High
Trip ifPrice drops below $250, more than 12% below the current $284, confirming the overbought momentum has reversed into a bearish trend.
- P3Excellent Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the thin-margin distribution model is deteriorating.
- P4Negative Price Asymmetry Above Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $330, restoring at least 15% upside from the current price above $284.