Value
5.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 1.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 3413.9x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
SKYH · Why this verdict
Why Sky Harbour Group (SKYH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Sky Harbour is growing revenue about 50% a year from a small base, but weak business quality, deep cash burn and falling momentum keep it out of reach despite a wide analyst-target gap and an oversold setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is compounding quickly, rising from 6.6M in mid-2025 to 9.9M in the June 2026 quarter, consistent with 50% YoY growth. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue reaches the 10.5M next-quarter estimate and keeps growing at least 30% YoY over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth comes from a tiny base and is funded by heavy capital spending, so it may not translate into profit. | ||
Business quality is weak at 2.5 against a 4.0 floor, with a severe cash-burn red flag (FCF/NI of -26172%) and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality score recovers above the 4.0 floor as net margin and cash conversion improve over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAs a development-stage real-estate business, low quality scores may reflect build-out spending that later turns into stable lease income. | ||
The stock looks oversold (RSI 24) with 51.6% upside to the analyst target against 5.8% downside to the stop, an asymmetry ratio of 8.87. Chart pattern detection | Momentum recovers above the engine's 4.5 bar and price closes part of the gap to the 14.08 target. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume and capitulation risk below the 200-day average suggest selling pressure could continue, and the engine still rates sizing AVOID. | ||
Positioning is stretched: a put/call ratio of 4.71, short interest of 12% and implied volatility of 94% signal heavy bearish hedging and speculative risk. Key risks | Put/call ratio normalizes toward 1.5 and implied volatility declines as earnings beats continue. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh put interest can be hedging by existing holders and a short squeeze from 12% short interest could cause a sharp upside move. | ||
Revenue is compounding quickly, rising from 6.6M in mid-2025 to 9.9M in the June 2026 quarter, consistent with 50% YoY growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the 10.5M next-quarter estimate and keeps growing at least 30% YoY over 12 months.
CounterGrowth comes from a tiny base and is funded by heavy capital spending, so it may not translate into profit.
Business quality is weak at 2.5 against a 4.0 floor, with a severe cash-burn red flag (FCF/NI of -26172%) and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above the 4.0 floor as net margin and cash conversion improve over 12 months.
CounterAs a development-stage real-estate business, low quality scores may reflect build-out spending that later turns into stable lease income.
The stock looks oversold (RSI 24) with 51.6% upside to the analyst target against 5.8% downside to the stop, an asymmetry ratio of 8.87.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above the engine's 4.5 bar and price closes part of the gap to the 14.08 target.
CounterFalling on-balance volume and capitulation risk below the 200-day average suggest selling pressure could continue, and the engine still rates sizing AVOID.
Positioning is stretched: a put/call ratio of 4.71, short interest of 12% and implied volatility of 94% signal heavy bearish hedging and speculative risk.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio normalizes toward 1.5 and implied volatility declines as earnings beats continue.
CounterHigh put interest can be hedging by existing holders and a short squeeze from 12% short interest could cause a sharp upside move.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -26172% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 50% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 72%
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 7.1 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,460,432 (0.450% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
1.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.9 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 1.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.12
- ▸High IV: 81%
- ▸Above max pain $7
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:8.5>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- INSIDER:0.45%=HEAVY
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
8.50
Upside
+49.7%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.1<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 8.50.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.8, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.4, and Quality at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Top Line Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Oversold Bounce Wide Target Gap
Trip ifPrice falls below the 8.83 stop-loss level, more than 5% under the current 9.29.
- P4Speculative Positioning And Volatility
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5 and short interest drops below 5% of float.