Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
SHOO · Why this verdict
Why Steven Madden (SHOO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Steven Madden holds an industry-leading growth rank within its peer group and a strong Piotroski financial-health score of 9/9, but near-term risk reward is unfavorable with analyst targets already reached and a negative asymmetry ratio, making the stock a hold rather than an addition.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company scores a near-perfect 9/9 on the Piotroski financial-health framework, indicating strong profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency signals across the board. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above in the next annual review, reflecting continued financial discipline. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion is a red flag at negative 19% relative to net income, which could erode the Piotroski score if operating cash deteriorates further. | ||
With 56.1% of manufacturing sourced from China, Steven Madden faces material exposure to tariff changes, geopolitical disruptions, and supply-chain cost shocks that could compress margins. Bear case | Gross margin holds above 35% and the company publicly discloses diversification of manufacturing base over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterChina concentration is a known risk already priced into the stock and peers face the same structural exposure, limiting relative disadvantage. | ||
Steven Madden ranks as the top growth performer among its footwear and accessories peers, supported by strong revenue and earnings growth scores that place it at the top of its industry cohort. Peer rank | Revenue growth rate remains above peer median and earnings growth score stays above 8.0 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth leadership in a small peer group may not persist if consumer spending on discretionary footwear contracts amid economic softness. | ||
The reward-to-risk ratio of 0.23 with analyst price target already reached leaves only 1.6% upside to the take-profit level versus 7% downside, making new entry unattractive at current price of $45.42. Targets | If the thesis holds, price pulls back below $43 to restore a more favorable entry point with upside greater than 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum indicators including a golden cross and RSI at 66 suggest near-term price strength that could push the stock higher before any correction. | ||
The company scores a near-perfect 9/9 on the Piotroski financial-health framework, indicating strong profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency signals across the board.
Tripped→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above in the next annual review, reflecting continued financial discipline.
CounterFree cash flow conversion is a red flag at negative 19% relative to net income, which could erode the Piotroski score if operating cash deteriorates further.
With 56.1% of manufacturing sourced from China, Steven Madden faces material exposure to tariff changes, geopolitical disruptions, and supply-chain cost shocks that could compress margins.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Gross margin holds above 35% and the company publicly discloses diversification of manufacturing base over the next 12 months.
CounterChina concentration is a known risk already priced into the stock and peers face the same structural exposure, limiting relative disadvantage.
Steven Madden ranks as the top growth performer among its footwear and accessories peers, supported by strong revenue and earnings growth scores that place it at the top of its industry cohort.
↓DeterioratingPeer rank
- Expectation
- Revenue growth rate remains above peer median and earnings growth score stays above 8.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth leadership in a small peer group may not persist if consumer spending on discretionary footwear contracts amid economic softness.
The reward-to-risk ratio of 0.23 with analyst price target already reached leaves only 1.6% upside to the take-profit level versus 7% downside, making new entry unattractive at current price of $45.42.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- If the thesis holds, price pulls back below $43 to restore a more favorable entry point with upside greater than 10%.
CounterMomentum indicators including a golden cross and RSI at 66 suggest near-term price strength that could push the stock higher before any correction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.9 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 5.2 |
| Op margin | 6.2 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -19% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,069,762 (0.034% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.6 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.49
Upside
-5.5%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.5; weakest: Catalyst at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.5, Value at 6.4, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.8, Technical at 4.4, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Growth Leadership
Trip ifRevenue growth score falls below 6.0 for two consecutive quarters, indicating peer-rank leadership is lost.
- P2Piotroski Financial HealthTripped
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below negative 30%, signaling accelerating cash burn relative to reported earnings.
- P3China Supply Chain Concentration
Trip ifGross margin declines to below 34% in any single quarter, suggesting China tariff or supply-chain costs are passing through to profitability.
- P4Asymmetry Ratio Unfavorable
Trip ifStock price rises above $48, more than 5% above current levels, without a corresponding increase in analyst price targets, worsening the asymmetry ratio below negative 1.0.