Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 4.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.39
- ▸Attractively valued
SFBS · Why this verdict
Why ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial and consumer real estate loans represent 65.8% of the loan portfolio, a high-severity concentration risk that exposes the bank to disproportionate losses if commercial property values decline or vacancy rates rise. Bear case | The bank discloses that CRE concentration falls below 60% of total loans over the next 12 months through portfolio diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks with strong CRE concentrations have managed through past cycles; the bank's high Piotroski score and strong margins suggest underwriting discipline that mitigates the concentration risk. | ||
Net margins of 54% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 place ServisFirst among the highest-quality regional banks by peer comparison, with the quality score ranking near the top of its peer group. Peer-rank breakdown | Net margins remain above 45% over the next 12 months and Piotroski score stays at 8 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank margins are highly sensitive to interest rate movements; a declining rate environment could compress net interest margins and erode the current profitability advantage. | ||
Revenue grew at 7.1% and earnings at 8.2% year-over-year, with a forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x and PEG ratio of 0.36, indicating the market has not yet fully priced in the bank's above-average growth trajectory. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 6% and earnings growth above 7% for the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBank revenue growth is heavily influenced by loan demand and deposit pricing dynamics; a slowdown in commercial lending activity could compress these figures quickly. | ||
A golden cross breakout pattern with RSI at 61 and rising On-Balance Volume confirms positive price momentum, but analyst targets have already been reached with only 1.5% remaining upside, eliminating the risk-adjusted buffer for new entrants. Gates warning | Analyst price targets are raised above $90 over the next 12 months as earnings results justify a higher valuation. | →Stable |
| CounterThe breakout setup suggests technical buyers may push the stock above analyst targets on near-term momentum, even without fundamental target revisions. | ||
Commercial and consumer real estate loans represent 65.8% of the loan portfolio, a high-severity concentration risk that exposes the bank to disproportionate losses if commercial property values decline or vacancy rates rise.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The bank discloses that CRE concentration falls below 60% of total loans over the next 12 months through portfolio diversification.
CounterRegional banks with strong CRE concentrations have managed through past cycles; the bank's high Piotroski score and strong margins suggest underwriting discipline that mitigates the concentration risk.
Net margins of 54% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 place ServisFirst among the highest-quality regional banks by peer comparison, with the quality score ranking near the top of its peer group.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 45% over the next 12 months and Piotroski score stays at 8 or higher.
CounterRegional bank margins are highly sensitive to interest rate movements; a declining rate environment could compress net interest margins and erode the current profitability advantage.
Revenue grew at 7.1% and earnings at 8.2% year-over-year, with a forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x and PEG ratio of 0.36, indicating the market has not yet fully priced in the bank's above-average growth trajectory.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 6% and earnings growth above 7% for the next 4 quarters.
CounterBank revenue growth is heavily influenced by loan demand and deposit pricing dynamics; a slowdown in commercial lending activity could compress these figures quickly.
A golden cross breakout pattern with RSI at 61 and rising On-Balance Volume confirms positive price momentum, but analyst targets have already been reached with only 1.5% remaining upside, eliminating the risk-adjusted buffer for new entrants.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are raised above $90 over the next 12 months as earnings results justify a higher valuation.
CounterThe breakout setup suggests technical buyers may push the stock above analyst targets on near-term momentum, even without fundamental target revisions.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ServisFirst Bancshares is a best-in-class regional bank with 54% net margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and strong earnings growth, but commercial real estate concentration at 65.8% of the loan book and a price already at analyst targets leave little margin of safety for new buyers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 54%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 8.2 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 9.4 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| beta | 7.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 17.86
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 175.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.66
Upside
-7.5%
Downside
11.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.6; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.6, Value at 7.1, and Quality at 5.9; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1, Technical at 4.7, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Margins And Returns
Trip ifNet margin falls below 40% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the best-in-class profitability advantage is narrowing.
- P2Commercial Real Estate Loan Concentration
Trip ifCRE loan concentration rises above 70% of total loans, more than 4 percentage points above the current disclosed level.
- P3Strong Revenue And Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 3% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a meaningful deceleration.
- P4Breakout Momentum No Upside Buffer
Trip ifPrice falls below $75, more than 7% below current levels, reversing the breakout pattern below its 200-day moving average.