Value
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.2 |
| PEG | 5.3 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.43
SAIA · Why this verdict
Why Saia (SAIA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Saia's solid earnings beat streak and above-average technical momentum cannot overcome a negative analyst upside and free cash flow conversion rate of only 14%, making the stock a hold at best until valuation normalizes to a more attractive entry point.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Saia beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.2%, demonstrating reliable execution in a capital-intensive trucking operation that benefits from long-haul freight dynamics. Earnings | Earnings beat rate remains 3 out of 4 quarters over the next year with average surprise above 3%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTrucking margins are highly cyclical and dependent on freight volumes; the miss in the most recent quarter could signal the beginning of a freight cycle downturn affecting the entire sector. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 14% of net income, a critically low ratio that signals the business is consuming nearly all reported earnings in capital expenditures, leaving minimal free cash for debt reduction, dividends, or opportunistic investments. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion improves to at least 50% of net income within 12 months as the capital expenditure cycle moderates. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset-intensive trucking companies frequently operate with low free cash flow relative to net income during network expansion phases, which can drive long-term competitive advantages. | ||
At a forward P/E of 32.9x and with the analyst consensus target already 14.1% below the current price of $474.19, the stock appears overvalued relative to its near-term earnings trajectory and carries negative expected return to analyst targets. Valuation breakdown | Either analyst targets are revised upward by at least 15% or price corrects to below $410, more than 13% below current levels, to restore a reasonable risk-reward ratio. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterPremium trucking companies with strong service reputations and improving market share can sustain elevated multiples if the underlying freight cycle turns favorable. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 1.94 signals that options traders are placing nearly 2 put contracts for every call, reflecting significant professional skepticism about the stock's near-term direction despite the breakout setup. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio declines below 1.0 within 6 months as either the stock corrects to a fairer valuation or the fundamental outlook improves sufficiently to attract call buyers. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh put/call ratios in trucking stocks can reflect freight companies using options for operational hedging rather than directional speculation, which may not be a reliable contrarian signal. | ||
Saia beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4.2%, demonstrating reliable execution in a capital-intensive trucking operation that benefits from long-haul freight dynamics.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate remains 3 out of 4 quarters over the next year with average surprise above 3%.
CounterTrucking margins are highly cyclical and dependent on freight volumes; the miss in the most recent quarter could signal the beginning of a freight cycle downturn affecting the entire sector.
Free cash flow represents only 14% of net income, a critically low ratio that signals the business is consuming nearly all reported earnings in capital expenditures, leaving minimal free cash for debt reduction, dividends, or opportunistic investments.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion improves to at least 50% of net income within 12 months as the capital expenditure cycle moderates.
CounterAsset-intensive trucking companies frequently operate with low free cash flow relative to net income during network expansion phases, which can drive long-term competitive advantages.
At a forward P/E of 32.9x and with the analyst consensus target already 14.1% below the current price of $474.19, the stock appears overvalued relative to its near-term earnings trajectory and carries negative expected return to analyst targets.
Tripped↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Either analyst targets are revised upward by at least 15% or price corrects to below $410, more than 13% below current levels, to restore a reasonable risk-reward ratio.
CounterPremium trucking companies with strong service reputations and improving market share can sustain elevated multiples if the underlying freight cycle turns favorable.
An elevated put/call ratio of 1.94 signals that options traders are placing nearly 2 put contracts for every call, reflecting significant professional skepticism about the stock's near-term direction despite the breakout setup.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio declines below 1.0 within 6 months as either the stock corrects to a fairer valuation or the fundamental outlook improves sufficiently to attract call buyers.
CounterHigh put/call ratios in trucking stocks can reflect freight companies using options for operational hedging rather than directional speculation, which may not be a reliable contrarian signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.7 |
| Op margin | 5.2 |
| Net margin | 4.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 3.9 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 49% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.8 |
| EPS growth | 8.3 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 4.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.5 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.9 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 4.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 7.4 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| beta | 2.9 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:55d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.02
Upside
+9.6%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.14>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.02 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.6, Sentiment at 7.2, and Peer rank at 7.0; the weakest are Insider at 4.2, Technical at 4.8, and Quality at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Fcf Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion remains below 25% of net income for at least 3 consecutive quarters.
- P3Rich Valuation Negative UpsideTripped
Trip ifPrice drops below $441, more than 7% below the current $474.19, confirming the valuation correction.
- P4Elevated Put Call Ratio
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 2.5 or remains above 1.5 for more than 3 consecutive months.