Value
5.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.2x
RLI · Why this verdict
Why RLI (RLI) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
RLI Corp. is a specialty property and casualty insurer with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and best-in-class margins, but the stock has already reached analyst price targets with negative implied upside, making it a hold rather than a compelling new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
RLI has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise of 12%, reflecting consistent underwriting discipline and pricing power in specialty insurance lines. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six or more consecutive quarters as specialty insurance pricing continues to benefit from industry-wide reinsurance tightening. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA perfect beat streak often means analyst estimates have been deliberately set conservatively; the true earnings trajectory may be flatter than the beat pattern implies. | ||
Net margins of 21%, a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, and a quality peer rank of 7.8 out of 10 place RLI among the best-run insurers in its peer group, supporting premium valuation over the medium term. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 18% over the next four quarters as pricing discipline is maintained in specialty lines. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 20% of net income, indicating earnings quality concerns where reported profits are not converting to cash at the same rate. | ||
The current price of $53.59 is already at the resistance target of $53.75, producing negative upside of -8.4% relative to analyst consensus, meaning the stock offers no margin of safety for new buyers at current levels. Warnings | Analyst consensus price targets rise above $62 within 12 months as earnings growth is revised upward, restoring a positive risk-reward profile. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock trading near analyst targets is a sign of recognition, not a ceiling; continued operational excellence can drive target upgrades that create a new entry window. | ||
Despite improving MACD, the stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -3.1% over 30 days, signaling a confirmed downtrend that historically precedes further price weakness before a recovery. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and holds above it for at least 30 consecutive days, confirming the technical downtrend has reversed. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a quality insurer with a perfect beat streak, technical weakness often reflects broader sector rotation rather than fundamental deterioration, creating a potential entry opportunity for patient investors. | ||
RLI has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise of 12%, reflecting consistent underwriting discipline and pricing power in specialty insurance lines.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six or more consecutive quarters as specialty insurance pricing continues to benefit from industry-wide reinsurance tightening.
CounterA perfect beat streak often means analyst estimates have been deliberately set conservatively; the true earnings trajectory may be flatter than the beat pattern implies.
Net margins of 21%, a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, and a quality peer rank of 7.8 out of 10 place RLI among the best-run insurers in its peer group, supporting premium valuation over the medium term.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 18% over the next four quarters as pricing discipline is maintained in specialty lines.
CounterFree cash flow is only 20% of net income, indicating earnings quality concerns where reported profits are not converting to cash at the same rate.
The current price of $53.59 is already at the resistance target of $53.75, producing negative upside of -8.4% relative to analyst consensus, meaning the stock offers no margin of safety for new buyers at current levels.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets rise above $62 within 12 months as earnings growth is revised upward, restoring a positive risk-reward profile.
CounterThe stock trading near analyst targets is a sign of recognition, not a ceiling; continued operational excellence can drive target upgrades that create a new entry window.
Despite improving MACD, the stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -3.1% over 30 days, signaling a confirmed downtrend that historically precedes further price weakness before a recovery.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and holds above it for at least 30 consecutive days, confirming the technical downtrend has reversed.
CounterFor a quality insurer with a perfect beat streak, technical weakness often reflects broader sector rotation rather than fundamental deterioration, creating a potential entry opportunity for patient investors.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.7 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 2.7 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 1.6 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 20% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $1,118,955 (0.020% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.9 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 3.6 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.18
Upside
-14.8%
Downside
12.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Insider at 7.5 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Catalyst at 7.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 1.8, Momentum at 4.7, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.18 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Underwriting
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the current beat streak.
- P2Best In Class Margins
Trip ifNet margin falls below 15% in any reported quarter, indicating underwriting discipline has deteriorated.
- P3Price At Analyst Target Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifPrice rises above $62 without a corresponding analyst target upgrade, creating more than 15% downside to consensus targets.
- P4Momentum Death Cross Technical Risk
Trip ifPrice drops below $48, more than 10% below the current $53.59, confirming the death cross is driving sustained selling rather than a temporary pullback.