Value
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.0 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.30
RELX · Why this verdict
Why RELX PLC (RELX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
RELX generates an ROE of 71% — the highest score in this category — and strong operating margins of 22%, ranking as best-in-class relative to specialty business services peers on both dimensions, indicating that the business generates extraordinary returns on shareholder capital through a high-margin information services model. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 60% and operating margins stay above 20% over the next 12 months, confirming that the exceptional capital efficiency is structural rather than cyclical. | →Stable |
| CounterAn ROE of 71% in a business with a debt-to-equity penalty reflects high financial leverage amplifying equity returns — meaning the underlying asset-level returns may be more modest, and any deleveraging or refinancing pressure could compress ROE substantially. | ||
Despite exceptional ROE and margins, RELX's Rule of 40 score of only 24 — well below the 40 threshold — indicates that its revenue growth rate is insufficient to classify it as a compounding growth business, meaning the premium multiple must be justified purely by margin quality rather than by a growth premium. Components | Rule of 40 score improves to above 30 within 12 months as either revenue growth accelerates or margins expand further beyond the current 22% level. | →Stable |
| CounterRELX is an established information services and analytics business where revenue growth in the 5-10% range is appropriate for the market segment — and the market typically values such businesses on sustainable cash generation quality rather than holding them to the same growth threshold as software companies. | ||
RELX is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross in place, the 200-day moving average declining at 5.7% per month, and falling on-balance volume indicating net selling by institutional participants — a constellation of signals that historically precedes further near-term price weakness regardless of fundamental quality. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 4.5 and the 200-day moving average slope turns positive within 12 months, resolving the confirmed downtrend and creating a basis for position initiation. | →Stable |
| CounterWith 35.7% analyst upside and a strong asymmetry ratio of 5.24 — one of the more favorable reward-to-risk profiles in the dataset — the death cross may represent an opportunity to accumulate a high-quality business at a meaningful discount before the technical overhang clears. | ||
Analysts project 35.7% upside to $44.58 from the current price of $32.84, with an asymmetry ratio of 5.24 — meaning the potential upside is more than 5 times the downside risk — but the death cross hard block prevents acting on this valuation gap until the technical conditions improve. Targets | Analyst consensus price target holds above $40 over the next 12 months and the stock price rises above $38, closing more than 10% of the current gap to target. | →Stable |
| CounterWith limited recent earnings history in the dataset (only one quarter reported, showing a miss of negative 7%), confidence in the analyst target is difficult to calibrate, and the large upside gap may partly reflect stale targets rather than current analyst conviction. | ||
RELX generates an ROE of 71% — the highest score in this category — and strong operating margins of 22%, ranking as best-in-class relative to specialty business services peers on both dimensions, indicating that the business generates extraordinary returns on shareholder capital through a high-margin information services model.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 60% and operating margins stay above 20% over the next 12 months, confirming that the exceptional capital efficiency is structural rather than cyclical.
CounterAn ROE of 71% in a business with a debt-to-equity penalty reflects high financial leverage amplifying equity returns — meaning the underlying asset-level returns may be more modest, and any deleveraging or refinancing pressure could compress ROE substantially.
Despite exceptional ROE and margins, RELX's Rule of 40 score of only 24 — well below the 40 threshold — indicates that its revenue growth rate is insufficient to classify it as a compounding growth business, meaning the premium multiple must be justified purely by margin quality rather than by a growth premium.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Rule of 40 score improves to above 30 within 12 months as either revenue growth accelerates or margins expand further beyond the current 22% level.
CounterRELX is an established information services and analytics business where revenue growth in the 5-10% range is appropriate for the market segment — and the market typically values such businesses on sustainable cash generation quality rather than holding them to the same growth threshold as software companies.
RELX is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross in place, the 200-day moving average declining at 5.7% per month, and falling on-balance volume indicating net selling by institutional participants — a constellation of signals that historically precedes further near-term price weakness regardless of fundamental quality.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 4.5 and the 200-day moving average slope turns positive within 12 months, resolving the confirmed downtrend and creating a basis for position initiation.
CounterWith 35.7% analyst upside and a strong asymmetry ratio of 5.24 — one of the more favorable reward-to-risk profiles in the dataset — the death cross may represent an opportunity to accumulate a high-quality business at a meaningful discount before the technical overhang clears.
Analysts project 35.7% upside to $44.58 from the current price of $32.84, with an asymmetry ratio of 5.24 — meaning the potential upside is more than 5 times the downside risk — but the death cross hard block prevents acting on this valuation gap until the technical conditions improve.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target holds above $40 over the next 12 months and the stock price rises above $38, closing more than 10% of the current gap to target.
CounterWith limited recent earnings history in the dataset (only one quarter reported, showing a miss of negative 7%), confidence in the analyst target is difficult to calibrate, and the large upside gap may partly reflect stale targets rather than current analyst conviction.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
RELX has an exceptional ROE of 71%, best-in-class margins of 22% relative to specialty business services peers, a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, and analysts project 36% upside — but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, falling on-balance volume, and a Rule of 40 score of only 24 indicate meaningful near-term technical risk that contradicts the strong fundamental quality picture.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.3 |
| Gross margin | 9.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.0 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 71%
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Rule of 40: 24 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 6.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 64%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 9.1 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 2.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.50
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 281.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:7.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
7.71
Upside
+39.6%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -40% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 7.71 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.4, Sentiment at 7.1, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.3, Peer rank at 3.7, and Growth at 4.1. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Return On Equity And Margins
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 50% in any single reporting period, indicating the high financial leverage amplification of equity returns is compressing as either margins decline or debt is restructured.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifMomentum score remains below 3.0 for more than 4 consecutive months, confirming the death cross-driven downtrend is deepening rather than stabilizing.
- P3Rule Of 40 Below Threshold
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 2% year-over-year in any quarter, indicating the already-modest growth profile is decelerating further and the Rule of 40 gap widens.
- P4Large Analyst Upside With Technical Block
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $38, indicating sell-side conviction has been reduced by more than 15% from current levels and the large upside gap is being closed from the wrong direction.