Value
4.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 1.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 8.4 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 120.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.77
RBRK · Why this verdict
Why Rubrik (RBRK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Rubrik has achieved an elite Rule of 40 score of 70, a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with an average surprise of 249%, and strong free cash flow of 31% of revenue despite GAAP losses — yet persistent negative price momentum and a death cross block new entry, making this a quality business waiting for a better technical setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Rubrik's Rule of 40 score of 70 — combining 39% revenue growth with a 31% free cash flow margin — places it in the elite tier of software infrastructure businesses, demonstrating that unit economics are working even while the company reports GAAP losses. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin rises above 35% within 12 months as revenue growth sustains and sales efficiency improves. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward price-to-earnings ratio of 107.9x means the market has already priced in significant future cash flow improvement, leaving little margin of safety if growth decelerates even modestly. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a gross margin score of 10 out of 10 indicate that Rubrik's underlying business financial health is strong across almost all standard quality metrics, supporting the thesis that GAAP losses reflect deliberate growth investment rather than structural weakness. Components | Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above for the next 4 quarters, confirming ongoing business health as growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA net margin of zero and ROA of zero mean the business has not yet demonstrated it can generate returns on total assets, and heavy stock-based compensation typical of high-growth software companies may obscure true economic profitability. | ||
Rubrik has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an extraordinary average surprise of 249%, including a 668% beat in the most recent quarter, indicating analysts have been systematically underestimating the business's improvement trajectory. Earnings | Rubrik continues to beat consensus earnings estimates by at least 20% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe extreme magnitude of recent beats — particularly the 668% surprise — suggests estimates were set at deeply negative levels that are unlikely to repeat, meaning beat magnitude will normalize and surprises closer to consensus become harder to deliver. | ||
Negative price momentum confirmed by a death cross and a momentum score of only 3.6 out of 10 indicates that despite strong fundamentals, market participants are currently net sellers, and the technical setup does not support new entry at this time. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 5.5 and the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average within 12 months, resolving the current technical overhang. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest of 10% combined with an elevated implied volatility of 76% means a catalyst-driven squeeze could resolve the momentum block quickly, and waiting for technical confirmation risks missing the entry. | ||
Rubrik's Rule of 40 score of 70 — combining 39% revenue growth with a 31% free cash flow margin — places it in the elite tier of software infrastructure businesses, demonstrating that unit economics are working even while the company reports GAAP losses.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin rises above 35% within 12 months as revenue growth sustains and sales efficiency improves.
CounterA forward price-to-earnings ratio of 107.9x means the market has already priced in significant future cash flow improvement, leaving little margin of safety if growth decelerates even modestly.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a gross margin score of 10 out of 10 indicate that Rubrik's underlying business financial health is strong across almost all standard quality metrics, supporting the thesis that GAAP losses reflect deliberate growth investment rather than structural weakness.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above for the next 4 quarters, confirming ongoing business health as growth continues.
CounterA net margin of zero and ROA of zero mean the business has not yet demonstrated it can generate returns on total assets, and heavy stock-based compensation typical of high-growth software companies may obscure true economic profitability.
Rubrik has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an extraordinary average surprise of 249%, including a 668% beat in the most recent quarter, indicating analysts have been systematically underestimating the business's improvement trajectory.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Rubrik continues to beat consensus earnings estimates by at least 20% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe extreme magnitude of recent beats — particularly the 668% surprise — suggests estimates were set at deeply negative levels that are unlikely to repeat, meaning beat magnitude will normalize and surprises closer to consensus become harder to deliver.
Negative price momentum confirmed by a death cross and a momentum score of only 3.6 out of 10 indicates that despite strong fundamentals, market participants are currently net sellers, and the technical setup does not support new entry at this time.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 5.5 and the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average within 12 months, resolving the current technical overhang.
CounterHigh short interest of 10% combined with an elevated implied volatility of 76% means a catalyst-driven squeeze could resolve the momentum block quickly, and waiting for technical confirmation risks missing the entry.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 31%, FCF yield 2.5%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 69 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $12,544,705 (0.066% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.5 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.5 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.15
Upside
+15.9%
Downside
13.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.15 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.6, and Catalyst at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Peer rank at 3.9, and Value at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Rule Of 40 Cash Generation
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating unit economics deterioration below the threshold that justified the premium valuation.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the perfect beat streak and signaling estimates have caught up to the business's true run rate.
- P3Strong Piotroski And Gross Margin
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 in any single quarter, indicating meaningful deterioration in balance sheet or profitability metrics.
- P4Death Cross Momentum Block
Trip ifMomentum score remains below 4.5 for more than 3 consecutive months, confirming the technical deterioration is persistent rather than a temporary pullback.