Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 7.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.87
QRVO · Why this verdict
Why Qorvo (QRVO) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Qorvo is a semiconductor company with exceptional free cash flow conversion of 164% and a strong 3-for-4 earnings beat record, but a critical customer concentration of 50% with Apple Inc., declining revenue of -7%, and a stock trading above its analyst price target combine to eliminate the near-term investment case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With approximately 50% of revenue concentrated in Apple Inc. as disclosed in the 10-K, any shift in Apple's supply chain decisions, product mix changes, or component sourcing strategy poses an existential revenue risk to Qorvo's top line. Bear case | Revenue from non-Apple sources grows above 55% of total revenue within the next 12 months, reducing single-customer dependency. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterApple relationships typically provide volume stability and multi-year design win visibility; losing Apple content is unlikely within a short window given the deep integration of Qorvo components in existing iPhone models. | ||
Qorvo converts 164% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that capital expenditures and working capital are well-managed and that reported earnings significantly understate actual cash returns to shareholders. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 130% for the next two reported annual periods. | →Stable |
| CounterDeclining revenue of -7% and falling earnings estimates of -15% suggest that even strong cash conversion cannot offset the top-line erosion that is shrinking the absolute level of free cash flow. | ||
At $101.28 per share, the stock trades above its near-term resistance target of $107.30, producing only 5.9% upside to that level and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.84 — well below the 1.5 minimum threshold needed to justify new entry. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward above $120 following revenue stabilization. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNegative asymmetry of -2.2 as measured by the engine indicates the stock has already priced in recovery expectations, and any earnings disappointment could lead to a sharp correction. | ||
Earnings estimates have fallen -15% over the past 30 days, and the most recent quarter saw a -53.7% negative earnings surprise against an estimate of $0.69, reversing the prior trend of strong beats. Catalyst breakdown | Quarterly earnings estimates stabilize and stop declining for at least 2 consecutive quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe three prior quarters showed beats of 742%, 5.1%, and 16.4%, and the single miss may reflect a specific one-time issue rather than a sustainable trend of estimate cuts. | ||
With approximately 50% of revenue concentrated in Apple Inc. as disclosed in the 10-K, any shift in Apple's supply chain decisions, product mix changes, or component sourcing strategy poses an existential revenue risk to Qorvo's top line.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue from non-Apple sources grows above 55% of total revenue within the next 12 months, reducing single-customer dependency.
CounterApple relationships typically provide volume stability and multi-year design win visibility; losing Apple content is unlikely within a short window given the deep integration of Qorvo components in existing iPhone models.
Qorvo converts 164% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that capital expenditures and working capital are well-managed and that reported earnings significantly understate actual cash returns to shareholders.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 130% for the next two reported annual periods.
CounterDeclining revenue of -7% and falling earnings estimates of -15% suggest that even strong cash conversion cannot offset the top-line erosion that is shrinking the absolute level of free cash flow.
At $101.28 per share, the stock trades above its near-term resistance target of $107.30, producing only 5.9% upside to that level and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.84 — well below the 1.5 minimum threshold needed to justify new entry.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward above $120 following revenue stabilization.
CounterNegative asymmetry of -2.2 as measured by the engine indicates the stock has already priced in recovery expectations, and any earnings disappointment could lead to a sharp correction.
Earnings estimates have fallen -15% over the past 30 days, and the most recent quarter saw a -53.7% negative earnings surprise against an estimate of $0.69, reversing the prior trend of strong beats.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly earnings estimates stabilize and stop declining for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe three prior quarters showed beats of 742%, 5.1%, and 16.4%, and the single miss may reflect a specific one-time issue rather than a sustainable trend of estimate cuts.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.2 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 164% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
0.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.9 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 5.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $201,627,235 (2.546% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 0.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 3.9 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Above max pain $78
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:2.55%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.22
Upside
-11.4%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.44>1.3
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Catalyst at 7.1 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.1, Value at 6.6, and Quality at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 0.9, Technical at 4.4, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.22 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Apple Customer Concentration Risk
Trip ifRevenue concentration from a single customer exceeds 55% in any reported annual period.
- P2Superior Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income in any reported period.
- P3Analyst Target Already Surpassed
Trip ifThe stock price rises above $115, extending the overshoot beyond analyst targets by more than 10%.
- P4Earnings Estimate Deterioration
Trip ifEarnings estimates decline by more than 20% in any single 30-day window.