Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
- ▸Attractively valued
QNST · Why this verdict
Why QuinStreet (QNST) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
QuinStreet combines a wide moat, strong cash conversion, and 28% revenue growth with an attractive valuation, but shares are deeply overbought with late-cycle distribution risk, and a thin 4.5% upside margin leaves the reward-to-risk ratio well short of the 1.5-to-1 bar.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bear case flags a thin upside margin of about 4.5% to the take-profit level, and the reward-to-risk ratio of about 0.3-to-1 falls well short of the 1.5-to-1 bar the engine looks for. Bear case | The reward-to-risk ratio should climb back above the 1.5-to-1 bar, either from a lower entry price or a higher target, confirming a stronger asymmetry than today's reading. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock's growth and quality characteristics could still support the analyst-implied target moving higher over time, which would widen the currently thin upside margin without the downside risk changing. | ||
The business shows a wide competitive moat and has combined strong returns with growth in a way that suggests compounding characteristics, backed by a strong Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 and excellent cash conversion near 166% of net income. Quality breakdown | The moat and quality characteristics should persist — cash conversion should stay strong and the Piotroski score should hold near its current level — over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is still flagged for below-average business quality among the key risks, and this moat read sits in tension with that broader quality flag, so the picture isn't uniformly positive. | ||
Revenue is growing strongly, up about 28% year over year, supporting the bull case built around a strong growth profile. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay near or above the current 28% pace over the next 12 months if the growth trajectory is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is overbought with an RSI near 94 and flagged for late-cycle distribution risk, which could mean the growth story is already substantially priced in. | ||
Shares are deeply overbought with an RSI near 94, and while still above the 200-day moving average, that average's slope has gone flat to slightly negative — a combination flagged as late-cycle distribution risk rather than a confirmed reversal. Momentum breakdown | For this risk to ease, RSI should cool off from its extreme reading while the 200-day moving average slope turns clearly positive again over the next 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOn-balance volume is still rising even at this overbought extreme, showing accumulation rather than distribution in the actual trading activity, which cuts against the late-cycle risk read. | ||
The bear case flags a thin upside margin of about 4.5% to the take-profit level, and the reward-to-risk ratio of about 0.3-to-1 falls well short of the 1.5-to-1 bar the engine looks for.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk ratio should climb back above the 1.5-to-1 bar, either from a lower entry price or a higher target, confirming a stronger asymmetry than today's reading.
CounterThe stock's growth and quality characteristics could still support the analyst-implied target moving higher over time, which would widen the currently thin upside margin without the downside risk changing.
The business shows a wide competitive moat and has combined strong returns with growth in a way that suggests compounding characteristics, backed by a strong Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 and excellent cash conversion near 166% of net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The moat and quality characteristics should persist — cash conversion should stay strong and the Piotroski score should hold near its current level — over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock is still flagged for below-average business quality among the key risks, and this moat read sits in tension with that broader quality flag, so the picture isn't uniformly positive.
Revenue is growing strongly, up about 28% year over year, supporting the bull case built around a strong growth profile.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay near or above the current 28% pace over the next 12 months if the growth trajectory is durable.
CounterThe stock is overbought with an RSI near 94 and flagged for late-cycle distribution risk, which could mean the growth story is already substantially priced in.
Shares are deeply overbought with an RSI near 94, and while still above the 200-day moving average, that average's slope has gone flat to slightly negative — a combination flagged as late-cycle distribution risk rather than a confirmed reversal.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- For this risk to ease, RSI should cool off from its extreme reading while the 200-day moving average slope turns clearly positive again over the next 12 months.
CounterOn-balance volume is still rising even at this overbought extreme, showing accumulation rather than distribution in the actual trading activity, which cuts against the late-cycle risk read.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.0 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 166% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $423,945 (0.047% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.60
Upside
+8.7%
Downside
14.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 9.8; weakest: Momentum at 2.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Value at 7.4, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.60 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Quality Characteristics
Trip ifThe Piotroski F-Score falls below 4 out of 9, down from the current 7.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY, down from the current 28% pace.
- P3Overbought Late Cycle RiskTripped
Trip ifRSI falls below 70, cooling from the current overbought reading near 94.
- P4Thin Upside Failed Asymmetry
Trip ifThe reward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5-to-1 from the current 0.3-to-1.