Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.58
QCOM · Why this verdict
Why QUALCOMM (QCOM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
QUALCOMM delivers 36% return on equity, 22% net margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and ranks superior to peers on both value and quality (ROE rank 7.9/10, quality rank 7.9/10), placing it among the highest-quality businesses in the semiconductor sector. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 30% and net margins stay above 18% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDespite high quality metrics, revenue has declined -4% year over year and overall growth scores are low at 5.8, suggesting the quality engine is not yet driving top-line expansion. | ||
QUALCOMM has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4%, demonstrating consistent execution in a complex and competitive semiconductor supply chain environment. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as the company maintains cost discipline and licensing revenues remain stable. | →Stable |
| CounterAn average surprise of only 4% is modest, and with estimates likely adjusted upward after 4 consecutive beats, maintaining the streak becomes harder while the incremental signal weakens. | ||
The current price of $220.81 implies -23.9% downside to the resistance-based take profit target of $253.78 when framed against the current price-to-target gap, and the asymmetry ratio is -1.59, meaning expected downside exceeds upside at spot, making this a position to hold rather than add. Targets | Analyst targets rise above $250 within 12 months to restore positive asymmetry and create a fresh entry opportunity. | →Stable |
| CounterA resistance-based take profit that is below the current price reflects a conservatively set technical target; analyst fundamental targets may be revised higher by the analyst cluster that has recently been detected in the news. | ||
A cluster of 3 analyst actions has been detected in recent news with positive LLM sentiment of +0.53 across 7 articles, suggesting increased institutional attention that could serve as a catalyst for re-rating if paired with a better technical setup. V9 | Analyst coverage expands and at least 2 new price target upgrades are published within 6 months, pushing the consensus target above $265. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst clusters can be triggered by routine roadshow participation or sector notes rather than proprietary research, and the signal may not reflect material new information about QUALCOMM's competitive positioning. | ||
QUALCOMM delivers 36% return on equity, 22% net margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and ranks superior to peers on both value and quality (ROE rank 7.9/10, quality rank 7.9/10), placing it among the highest-quality businesses in the semiconductor sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 30% and net margins stay above 18% over the next 12 months.
CounterDespite high quality metrics, revenue has declined -4% year over year and overall growth scores are low at 5.8, suggesting the quality engine is not yet driving top-line expansion.
QUALCOMM has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 4%, demonstrating consistent execution in a complex and competitive semiconductor supply chain environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as the company maintains cost discipline and licensing revenues remain stable.
CounterAn average surprise of only 4% is modest, and with estimates likely adjusted upward after 4 consecutive beats, maintaining the streak becomes harder while the incremental signal weakens.
The current price of $220.81 implies -23.9% downside to the resistance-based take profit target of $253.78 when framed against the current price-to-target gap, and the asymmetry ratio is -1.59, meaning expected downside exceeds upside at spot, making this a position to hold rather than add.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise above $250 within 12 months to restore positive asymmetry and create a fresh entry opportunity.
CounterA resistance-based take profit that is below the current price reflects a conservatively set technical target; analyst fundamental targets may be revised higher by the analyst cluster that has recently been detected in the news.
A cluster of 3 analyst actions has been detected in recent news with positive LLM sentiment of +0.53 across 7 articles, suggesting increased institutional attention that could serve as a catalyst for re-rating if paired with a better technical setup.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Analyst coverage expands and at least 2 new price target upgrades are published within 6 months, pushing the consensus target above $265.
CounterAnalyst clusters can be triggered by routine roadshow participation or sector notes rather than proprietary research, and the signal may not reflect material new information about QUALCOMM's competitive positioning.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
QUALCOMM combines a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, 36% return on equity, 22% net margins, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 with a PEG of 0.94, but the stock trades well above analyst price targets implying -23.9% downside, and recent news from an analyst cluster of 3 has not been sufficient to resolve the negative asymmetry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.5 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 8.8 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 36%
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.8 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.6 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $5,735,266 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.4 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.2 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High IV: 84%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 209.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.83
Upside
+12.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.3) with weak momentum (3.0)
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.64>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Quality at 8.3; weakest: Momentum at 3.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.3, Technical at 7.5, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Peer rank at 4.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Business Fundamentals
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Above Target Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifPrice falls below $190 without a corresponding upward revision in analyst targets above $240.
- P4Analyst Cluster Catalyst
Trip ifAnalyst coverage drops below 2 active recommendations or consensus target falls below $200.