Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.7 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
PWP · Why this verdict
Why Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Perella Weinberg Partners trades at a PEG of 0.02 and forward P/E of 10.6x with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but has experienced a -30% revenue decline, two consecutive recent earnings misses, and an RSI of 28 with a confirmed downtrend in its 200-day moving average slope.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a PEG ratio of 0.02 and a forward P/E of 10.6x with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, suggesting that even after a significant revenue decline, the market is pricing in little recovery in advisory fee income for an established independent investment bank. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands above 14x within 12 months as M&A market conditions improve and advisory revenue recovers. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.02 may reflect earnings estimates that are set too high relative to a -30% revenue decline; if estimates are revised down further, the apparent cheapness evaporates. | ||
Revenue has declined 30% year over year and the company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, including a -70% miss in the most recent quarter, indicating that the advisory pipeline is not delivering at the rate analysts expected. Earnings | Revenue decline rate improves to less than -10% year over year within 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAdvisory revenues at independent investment banks are inherently lumpy; a single large transaction closing late can turn a miss quarter into a beat quarter, making the trailing 4-quarter pattern less informative than it appears. | ||
With RSI at 28 and the stock trading near the Bollinger lower band after a confirmed downtrend, the technical setup resembles a capitulation pattern where the most pessimistic sellers have exited, and volume accumulation (rising OBV) suggests some institutional buyers are already positioning. Momentum breakdown | RSI rises above 40 within 3 months and price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI of 28 with a 200-day MA slope of -2.9% per month and a confirmed downtrend means the stock is more likely to remain in a downtrend than to reverse without a fundamental catalyst. | ||
Short interest at 13% of float and a put/call ratio of 1.50 combined with implied volatility of 200% signal that both options market participants and short sellers are aggressively positioned for continued downside in a small-cap advisory firm. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 7% within 12 months if advisory revenues recover and earnings beats resume. | →Stable |
| CounterWith 200% implied volatility, options premiums for both puts and calls are extremely expensive, which means any directional bet through options carries very high breakeven requirements and time decay. | ||
The stock trades at a PEG ratio of 0.02 and a forward P/E of 10.6x with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, suggesting that even after a significant revenue decline, the market is pricing in little recovery in advisory fee income for an established independent investment bank.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands above 14x within 12 months as M&A market conditions improve and advisory revenue recovers.
CounterA PEG of 0.02 may reflect earnings estimates that are set too high relative to a -30% revenue decline; if estimates are revised down further, the apparent cheapness evaporates.
Revenue has declined 30% year over year and the company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, including a -70% miss in the most recent quarter, indicating that the advisory pipeline is not delivering at the rate analysts expected.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Revenue decline rate improves to less than -10% year over year within 2 quarters.
CounterAdvisory revenues at independent investment banks are inherently lumpy; a single large transaction closing late can turn a miss quarter into a beat quarter, making the trailing 4-quarter pattern less informative than it appears.
With RSI at 28 and the stock trading near the Bollinger lower band after a confirmed downtrend, the technical setup resembles a capitulation pattern where the most pessimistic sellers have exited, and volume accumulation (rising OBV) suggests some institutional buyers are already positioning.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI rises above 40 within 3 months and price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 6 months.
CounterRSI of 28 with a 200-day MA slope of -2.9% per month and a confirmed downtrend means the stock is more likely to remain in a downtrend than to reverse without a fundamental catalyst.
Short interest at 13% of float and a put/call ratio of 1.50 combined with implied volatility of 200% signal that both options market participants and short sellers are aggressively positioned for continued downside in a small-cap advisory firm.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 7% within 12 months if advisory revenues recover and earnings beats resume.
CounterWith 200% implied volatility, options premiums for both puts and calls are extremely expensive, which means any directional bet through options carries very high breakeven requirements and time decay.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 5.9 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 7.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,590,547 (0.157% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 2.6 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.1 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.6 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.67
- ▸High IV: 138%
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:81d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.16%=MODERATE
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.59
Upside
+8.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.63>1.3, MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.6<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 7.1 and asymmetric R:R of 0.59.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Sentiment at 6.6, and Growth at 6.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.8, Peer rank at 3.1, and Technical at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value At Current Price
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 7x following earnings estimate revisions downward by more than 20%.
- P2Revenue Decline Earnings Inconsistency
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 40% year over year in any single quarter.
- P3Oversold Capitulation Setup
Trip ifRSI remains below 30 for more than 60 consecutive days without recovering above 35.
- P4High Short Interest Options Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 18% of float for more than 45 consecutive days.