Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.7 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
PWP · Why this verdict
Why Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a PEG ratio of 0.02 and a forward P/E of 10.6x with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, suggesting that even after a significant revenue decline, the market is pricing in little recovery in advisory fee income for an established independent investment bank. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands above 14x within 12 months as M&A market conditions improve and advisory revenue recovers. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.02 may reflect earnings estimates that are set too high relative to a -30% revenue decline; if estimates are revised down further, the apparent cheapness evaporates. | ||
Revenue has declined 30% year over year and the company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, including a -70% miss in the most recent quarter, indicating that the advisory pipeline is not delivering at the rate analysts expected. Earnings | Revenue decline rate improves to less than -10% year over year within 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAdvisory revenues at independent investment banks are inherently lumpy; a single large transaction closing late can turn a miss quarter into a beat quarter, making the trailing 4-quarter pattern less informative than it appears. | ||
With RSI at 28 and the stock trading near the Bollinger lower band after a confirmed downtrend, the technical setup resembles a capitulation pattern where the most pessimistic sellers have exited, and volume accumulation (rising OBV) suggests some institutional buyers are already positioning. Momentum breakdown | RSI rises above 40 within 3 months and price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI of 28 with a 200-day MA slope of -2.9% per month and a confirmed downtrend means the stock is more likely to remain in a downtrend than to reverse without a fundamental catalyst. | ||
Short interest at 13% of float and a put/call ratio of 1.50 combined with implied volatility of 200% signal that both options market participants and short sellers are aggressively positioned for continued downside in a small-cap advisory firm. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 7% within 12 months if advisory revenues recover and earnings beats resume. | →Stable |
| CounterWith 200% implied volatility, options premiums for both puts and calls are extremely expensive, which means any directional bet through options carries very high breakeven requirements and time decay. | ||
The stock trades at a PEG ratio of 0.02 and a forward P/E of 10.6x with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, suggesting that even after a significant revenue decline, the market is pricing in little recovery in advisory fee income for an established independent investment bank.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands above 14x within 12 months as M&A market conditions improve and advisory revenue recovers.
CounterA PEG of 0.02 may reflect earnings estimates that are set too high relative to a -30% revenue decline; if estimates are revised down further, the apparent cheapness evaporates.
Revenue has declined 30% year over year and the company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, including a -70% miss in the most recent quarter, indicating that the advisory pipeline is not delivering at the rate analysts expected.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Revenue decline rate improves to less than -10% year over year within 2 quarters.
CounterAdvisory revenues at independent investment banks are inherently lumpy; a single large transaction closing late can turn a miss quarter into a beat quarter, making the trailing 4-quarter pattern less informative than it appears.
With RSI at 28 and the stock trading near the Bollinger lower band after a confirmed downtrend, the technical setup resembles a capitulation pattern where the most pessimistic sellers have exited, and volume accumulation (rising OBV) suggests some institutional buyers are already positioning.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI rises above 40 within 3 months and price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 6 months.
CounterRSI of 28 with a 200-day MA slope of -2.9% per month and a confirmed downtrend means the stock is more likely to remain in a downtrend than to reverse without a fundamental catalyst.
Short interest at 13% of float and a put/call ratio of 1.50 combined with implied volatility of 200% signal that both options market participants and short sellers are aggressively positioned for continued downside in a small-cap advisory firm.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 7% within 12 months if advisory revenues recover and earnings beats resume.
CounterWith 200% implied volatility, options premiums for both puts and calls are extremely expensive, which means any directional bet through options carries very high breakeven requirements and time decay.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Perella Weinberg Partners trades at a PEG of 0.02 and forward P/E of 10.6x with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but has experienced a -30% revenue decline, two consecutive recent earnings misses, and an RSI of 28 with a confirmed downtrend in its 200-day moving average slope.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -30%
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,610,533 (0.231% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
1.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 0.4 |
Technical
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 3.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.4 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 32.00
- ▸High IV: 109%
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.7 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.23%=MODERATE
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.86
Upside
+12.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.65>1.3, MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.86 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Sentiment at 6.2, and Momentum at 5.7; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Technical at 1.5, and Peer rank at 1.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value At Current Price
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 7x following earnings estimate revisions downward by more than 20%.
- P2Revenue Decline Earnings Inconsistency
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 40% year over year in any single quarter.
- P3Oversold Capitulation Setup
Trip ifRSI remains below 30 for more than 60 consecutive days without recovering above 35.
- P4High Short Interest Options Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 18% of float for more than 45 consecutive days.