Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
PSKY · Why this verdict
Why Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Paramount Skydance Corporation trades attractively at 12.1x forward earnings with analysts seeing 21% upside, but its quality score of 2.8 is well below the minimum threshold, a death cross pattern is recovering, and consecutive earnings misses in 2 of 3 available quarters create a challenging near-term fundamental picture.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality score of 2.8 is the lowest in this batch and well below the 4.0 minimum threshold, reflecting near-zero return on assets, minimal net margins, and a weak moat score of 3.1, all of which point to a business with limited competitive differentiation. Quality breakdown | Quality score improves above 4.0 within 4 reporting periods, driven by margin expansion as content investment cycles from production phase to distribution monetization. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNewly merged or restructured entertainment companies often show depressed quality metrics in the first 2 years post-combination before synergies begin to flow through financial statements. | ||
Paramount Skydance trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.1x and a near-zero PEG ratio, with analysts seeing approximately 21% upside to a consensus target of $11.00 versus the current price of $10.49. Valuation breakdown | Analyst consensus price target is maintained or raised and price appreciates to above $11.00 within 12 months, capturing the analyst-implied upside. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEntertainment company valuations are notoriously difficult to forecast given box office variability, streaming competition, and content investment cycles that can rapidly swing from profit to loss. | ||
With only 3 quarters of history available, the company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of those 3 quarters, including a -732% miss in February 2026 and a -130% miss in November 2025, creating a track record of substantial earnings disappointments. Earnings | The next 2 quarterly earnings reports both deliver positive surprises above 5%, establishing a reversal in the miss pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterThe single beat in May 2026 (51% positive surprise) shows the business can deliver; the misses may reflect lumpy content cost timing rather than structural underperformance. | ||
The stock is in a death cross pattern with RSI at 53 and MACD improving, indicating that the price is in early recovery from a downtrend but has not yet re-established a constructive technical setup, and near the 52-week low at approximately 0.2% of the range. Gates warning | The stock closes above its 200-day moving average for 10 or more consecutive trading days within the next 6 months, confirming the death cross has resolved. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDeath cross recovery patterns in entertainment stocks can take 12-18 months to fully resolve and may see multiple false starts before sustained trend improvement. | ||
The quality score of 2.8 is the lowest in this batch and well below the 4.0 minimum threshold, reflecting near-zero return on assets, minimal net margins, and a weak moat score of 3.1, all of which point to a business with limited competitive differentiation.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score improves above 4.0 within 4 reporting periods, driven by margin expansion as content investment cycles from production phase to distribution monetization.
CounterNewly merged or restructured entertainment companies often show depressed quality metrics in the first 2 years post-combination before synergies begin to flow through financial statements.
Paramount Skydance trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.1x and a near-zero PEG ratio, with analysts seeing approximately 21% upside to a consensus target of $11.00 versus the current price of $10.49.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target is maintained or raised and price appreciates to above $11.00 within 12 months, capturing the analyst-implied upside.
CounterEntertainment company valuations are notoriously difficult to forecast given box office variability, streaming competition, and content investment cycles that can rapidly swing from profit to loss.
With only 3 quarters of history available, the company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of those 3 quarters, including a -732% miss in February 2026 and a -130% miss in November 2025, creating a track record of substantial earnings disappointments.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next 2 quarterly earnings reports both deliver positive surprises above 5%, establishing a reversal in the miss pattern.
CounterThe single beat in May 2026 (51% positive surprise) shows the business can deliver; the misses may reflect lumpy content cost timing rather than structural underperformance.
The stock is in a death cross pattern with RSI at 53 and MACD improving, indicating that the price is in early recovery from a downtrend but has not yet re-established a constructive technical setup, and near the 52-week low at approximately 0.2% of the range.
↓DeterioratingGates warning
- Expectation
- The stock closes above its 200-day moving average for 10 or more consecutive trading days within the next 6 months, confirming the death cross has resolved.
CounterDeath cross recovery patterns in entertainment stocks can take 12-18 months to fully resolve and may see multiple false starts before sustained trend improvement.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.7 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 1.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 90)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.9 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.57 (n=5)
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
Technical
0.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.9 |
| days to cover | 2.0 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 3.5 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 16%
- ▸High IV: 92%
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-1.06
Upside
-15.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 90
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -51% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.1=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of -1.06.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Insider at 7.2, and Momentum at 6.0; the weakest are Technical at 0.2, Growth at 1.4, and Quality at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Valuation Attractive Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $9, reducing implied upside to less than 0% from current levels.
- P2Quality Floor Breach Structural
Trip ifQuality score remains below 3.0 for 4 consecutive reporting periods without improvement.
- P3Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifQuarterly earnings surprise falls below -50% in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P4Death Cross Recovery Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below $8 on weekly close, indicating death cross recovery has failed and a new leg down is underway.