Value
4.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
PRCH · Why this verdict
Why Porch Group (PRCH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 4.7 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 9%, FCF yield 2.6%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 24 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.4 |
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 7.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 85)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 85 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $22,087,832 (1.329% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 23%
- ▸High IV: 87%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:1.33%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.45
Upside
-6.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Momentum at 7.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.6, Catalyst at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 1.4, Peer rank at 2.2, and Technical at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.