Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.30
- ▸Attractively valued
PKOH · Why this verdict
Why Park-Ohio Holdings (PKOH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PKOH's quality score sits below the engine's floor with an already-reached analyst target and recent earnings misses, compounded by elevated put/call skew and modest insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The engine's quality score sits at 3.4, below its 4.0 minimum floor, driven by no competitive moat and an earnings-quality warning of only 64% FCF-to-net-income conversion. Warnings | The quality score should rise above 4.0 as moat and earnings-quality metrics improve over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn attractive forward P/E of 10.6x and a PEG ratio near 1.0 suggest the market may already be pricing in the quality concerns, leaving room for a re-rate if execution improves. | ||
The bear case flags that the analyst target has already been reached, with -7.5% modeled upside remaining. Bear case | Price should stay capped near current levels without materially exceeding the analyst target over the next 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPeer-rank notes credit PKOH with an attractive P/E versus peers, which could support a higher re-rated target if earnings stabilize. | ||
PKOH has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -9.5%, and next reports in 32 days. Earnings | The earnings surprise trend should turn positive, with a clean beat in the reporting cycle on 2026-08-05. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was in-line rather than a miss, suggesting the deterioration may already be stabilizing. | ||
Risk notes flag an elevated put/call ratio of 3.00 alongside high implied volatility of 83%, indicating defensive or bearish options positioning. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below and implied volatility should compress over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios on small-cap industrials are often driven by thin options volume and a handful of large trades rather than broad bearish conviction. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers, offloading $354,075 (0.068% of market cap) across 4 transactions with zero offsetting purchases in the past 90 days. Insider | Insider selling should moderate, with the net insider signal trending back toward neutral over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAt only 0.068% of market cap, this level of selling is immaterial and consistent with routine diversification rather than a signal of deteriorating conviction. | ||
The engine's quality score sits at 3.4, below its 4.0 minimum floor, driven by no competitive moat and an earnings-quality warning of only 64% FCF-to-net-income conversion.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- The quality score should rise above 4.0 as moat and earnings-quality metrics improve over the next 12 months.
CounterAn attractive forward P/E of 10.6x and a PEG ratio near 1.0 suggest the market may already be pricing in the quality concerns, leaving room for a re-rate if execution improves.
The bear case flags that the analyst target has already been reached, with -7.5% modeled upside remaining.
Tripped↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Price should stay capped near current levels without materially exceeding the analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterPeer-rank notes credit PKOH with an attractive P/E versus peers, which could support a higher re-rated target if earnings stabilize.
PKOH has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -9.5%, and next reports in 32 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings surprise trend should turn positive, with a clean beat in the reporting cycle on 2026-08-05.
CounterThe most recent quarter was in-line rather than a miss, suggesting the deterioration may already be stabilizing.
Risk notes flag an elevated put/call ratio of 3.00 alongside high implied volatility of 83%, indicating defensive or bearish options positioning.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below and implied volatility should compress over the next 12 months.
CounterElevated put/call ratios on small-cap industrials are often driven by thin options volume and a handful of large trades rather than broad bearish conviction.
Insiders have been net sellers, offloading $354,075 (0.068% of market cap) across 4 transactions with zero offsetting purchases in the past 90 days.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should moderate, with the net insider signal trending back toward neutral over the next 12 months.
CounterAt only 0.068% of market cap, this level of selling is immaterial and consistent with routine diversification rather than a signal of deteriorating conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.8 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 143% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 8.0 |
Momentum
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 9.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $197,314 (0.028% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 5.8 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.8 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.49
Upside
-7.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 8.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.49 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.5, Value at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.8, Technical at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.4, clearing the engine's minimum floor.
- P2Analyst Target Reached Limited UpsideTripped
Trip ifPrice rises more than 15% above the current $36.30 level, exceeding the prior analyst target.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% at the August 5, 2026 earnings report, confirming a clean beat.
- P4Elevated Put Call And Implied Vol
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5 from the current 3.00, and implied volatility compresses below 50%.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider signal flips bullish with net insider buying that exceeds $250,000 over a 90-day window.