Value
4.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.1 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.2 |
| PEG | 8.7 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 53.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.72
PKE · Why this verdict
Why Park Aerospace (PKE) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PKE carries a strong earnings-beat streak and 43% growth into a bullish breakout setup, but an already-reached analyst target, expensive headline valuation, an earnings-quality warning, and a dividend yield-trap warning temper the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
PKE's bull case cites a strong earnings beat streak (3 of 4 quarters), a strong growth profile, and positive momentum, corroborated by 43% YoY revenue growth and an upcoming earnings catalyst in 10 days. Bull case | The beat streak should extend with a positive EPS surprise at the next report on 2026-07-14. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe engine's own asymmetry gate has failed at -0.4, signaling the risk/reward skew is negative even with the growth and beat-streak tailwinds. | ||
The bear case flags expensive valuation and an already-reached analyst target, consistent with value notes citing a forward P/E of 74.2x. Bear case | The stock's price should stay near or below the current analyst target level over the next 12 months without a materially higher re-rate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA PEG ratio of only 0.34 suggests the high absolute P/E is still reasonably supported by the 43% growth rate, tempering the 'expensive' framing. | ||
The engine flags a bullish breakout setup: a golden cross with price above all moving averages, RSI at 57, and a bullish MACD reading. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above its moving averages and the breakout should extend over the next 12 months. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterThe failed asymmetry gate suggests the risk/reward skew is unfavorable even as the chart pattern looks technically bullish. | ||
Quality notes flag an earnings-quality warning with only 67% FCF-to-net-income conversion, despite an otherwise perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | The FCF-to-net-income conversion ratio should improve toward parity over the next 12 months if the earnings-quality concern is easing. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA perfect 9/9 Piotroski score suggests the underlying fundamentals are broadly solid despite the one weaker conversion metric. | ||
Catalyst notes flag a yield-trap warning: the dividend appears high but is not fully safe, reflected in a dividend-safety component of only 3.5. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend-safety component should rise above its current 3.5 level or the distribution should be maintained without a cut over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPKE shows no net insider selling activity in the data, offering no direct corroborating evidence that a distribution cut is imminent. | ||
PKE's bull case cites a strong earnings beat streak (3 of 4 quarters), a strong growth profile, and positive momentum, corroborated by 43% YoY revenue growth and an upcoming earnings catalyst in 10 days.
↑ImprovingBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend with a positive EPS surprise at the next report on 2026-07-14.
CounterThe engine's own asymmetry gate has failed at -0.4, signaling the risk/reward skew is negative even with the growth and beat-streak tailwinds.
The bear case flags expensive valuation and an already-reached analyst target, consistent with value notes citing a forward P/E of 74.2x.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The stock's price should stay near or below the current analyst target level over the next 12 months without a materially higher re-rate.
CounterA PEG ratio of only 0.34 suggests the high absolute P/E is still reasonably supported by the 43% growth rate, tempering the 'expensive' framing.
The engine flags a bullish breakout setup: a golden cross with price above all moving averages, RSI at 57, and a bullish MACD reading.
Tripped↑ImprovingChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its moving averages and the breakout should extend over the next 12 months.
CounterThe failed asymmetry gate suggests the risk/reward skew is unfavorable even as the chart pattern looks technically bullish.
Quality notes flag an earnings-quality warning with only 67% FCF-to-net-income conversion, despite an otherwise perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income conversion ratio should improve toward parity over the next 12 months if the earnings-quality concern is easing.
CounterA perfect 9/9 Piotroski score suggests the underlying fundamentals are broadly solid despite the one weaker conversion metric.
Catalyst notes flag a yield-trap warning: the dividend appears high but is not fully safe, reflected in a dividend-safety component of only 3.5.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend-safety component should rise above its current 3.5 level or the distribution should be maintained without a cut over the next 12 months.
CounterPKE shows no net insider selling activity in the data, offering no direct corroborating evidence that a distribution cut is imminent.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 4.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 9.1 |
| Net margin | 9.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 5.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 56%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $9,442,479 (1.595% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.8 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 3.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 1.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.00
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- INSIDER:1.59%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.66
Upside
+32.7%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.6; weakest: Momentum at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Technical at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 4.3, Value at 4.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.66 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak With Strong Growth
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the July 14, 2026 earnings report, breaking the beat streak.
- P2Expensive Valuation Target Reached
Trip ifPrice rises more than 15% above the current $37.83 level, exceeding the prior analyst target.
- P3Bullish Breakout Technical SetupTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average, invalidating the golden-cross breakout setup.
- P4Earnings Quality Warning
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion exceeds 90%, resolving the earnings-quality warning flagged at 67%.
- P5Dividend Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifDividend safety score rises above 6.5 from the current 3.5, indicating the yield-trap risk has resolved.