Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.8 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.25
PINS · Why this verdict
Why Pinterest (PINS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pinterest exhibits a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 with free cash flow at 323% of net income, but is blocked by a death cross, 19% short interest, and confirmed downtrend — a high-quality business in a technically broken chart awaiting a technical recovery before entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Pinterest has a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 323% of net income, the highest quality conversion ratio in the peer group, while the Rule of 40 score of 42 passes the growth-quality threshold. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 9 and FCF conversion stays above 200% of net income for 4 consecutive quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe wide gap between FCF and net income may reflect timing differences or non-cash charges being added back; if capital expenditures rise as the platform scales internationally, FCF could compress significantly. | ||
Pinterest has triggered a death cross hard block with the 200-day moving average declining at -9.0% per month — the steepest confirmed downtrend in the dataset — and the stock is trading at only 0.7% of its 52-week range from the low. Momentum breakdown | Price rises more than 15% from current levels to begin reclaiming the 200-day moving average and momentum score exceeds 5.0 within 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD is improving with RSI at 62, indicating buyers are gaining control at near-52-week-low prices — this technical divergence can be the early signal of a sustained recovery before the moving averages catch up. | ||
Pinterest's revenue is almost entirely dependent on advertising, with a high-severity concentration risk flagged for both product (advertising) and infrastructure supplier (AWS dependency) in the 10-K disclosures. Key risks | Pinterest announces at least 1 new non-advertising revenue stream or diversification initiative that generates more than 5% of revenue within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAdvertising-only social platforms can sustain very high valuations when audience engagement is strong; the advertiser base diversification and direct response capabilities reduce dependency on any single advertiser. | ||
Pinterest has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 36%, revenue growth at 7.0% year-over-year, and analysts project 30% upside to a target of $25.53 from the current $21.33. Catalyst breakdown | Revenue growth accelerates above 15% year-over-year and the next earnings report in 55 days shows a positive surprise greater than 10%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent period showed a flat quarter with a 0.69% negative surprise (INLINE), suggesting consensus expectations are catching up to Pinterest's delivery pace as the platform matures. | ||
Pinterest has a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 323% of net income, the highest quality conversion ratio in the peer group, while the Rule of 40 score of 42 passes the growth-quality threshold.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 9 and FCF conversion stays above 200% of net income for 4 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe wide gap between FCF and net income may reflect timing differences or non-cash charges being added back; if capital expenditures rise as the platform scales internationally, FCF could compress significantly.
Pinterest has triggered a death cross hard block with the 200-day moving average declining at -9.0% per month — the steepest confirmed downtrend in the dataset — and the stock is trading at only 0.7% of its 52-week range from the low.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises more than 15% from current levels to begin reclaiming the 200-day moving average and momentum score exceeds 5.0 within 6 months.
CounterMACD is improving with RSI at 62, indicating buyers are gaining control at near-52-week-low prices — this technical divergence can be the early signal of a sustained recovery before the moving averages catch up.
Pinterest's revenue is almost entirely dependent on advertising, with a high-severity concentration risk flagged for both product (advertising) and infrastructure supplier (AWS dependency) in the 10-K disclosures.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Pinterest announces at least 1 new non-advertising revenue stream or diversification initiative that generates more than 5% of revenue within 12 months.
CounterAdvertising-only social platforms can sustain very high valuations when audience engagement is strong; the advertiser base diversification and direct response capabilities reduce dependency on any single advertiser.
Pinterest has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 36%, revenue growth at 7.0% year-over-year, and analysts project 30% upside to a target of $25.53 from the current $21.33.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth accelerates above 15% year-over-year and the next earnings report in 55 days shows a positive surprise greater than 10%.
CounterThe most recent period showed a flat quarter with a 0.69% negative surprise (INLINE), suggesting consensus expectations are catching up to Pinterest's delivery pace as the platform matures.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.5 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 1.2 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 677% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.6 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.47 (n=9)
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $22,865,835 (0.196% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 1.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.8 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.0 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
- ▸Above max pain $14
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.4 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:100d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.59
Upside
+16.6%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.1<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.59 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.6, Catalyst at 6.2, and Sentiment at 6.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.1, Growth at 2.8, and Peer rank at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Cashflow Quality
Trip ifFCF conversion falls below 150% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters or Piotroski score drops below 7.
- P2Death Cross Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $18.00 or the 200-day moving average slope steepens beyond -12% per month, indicating acceleration of the downtrend.
- P3Advertising Concentration Risk
Trip ifAdvertising revenue falls below 90% of total revenue on a declining base, indicating advertiser churn rather than diversification.
- P4Earnings Beats Growth Trajectory
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling deceleration beyond the current 7% rate.