Value
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 64.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
PI · Why this verdict
Why Impinj (PI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Impinj is a semiconductor company with strong financial-health scores, recent earnings beats and a cluster of analyst actions, but the price is already at the analyst target, valuation is rich at 62.3x forward earnings, and quality is only 3.6/10.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow margin is only 2% with a yield of 0.1%, and operating margin scores 1.6/10, even though the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin should rise above 8% as the business scales. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGross margin scores 6.7/10 and the moat component is 6.5, so thin cash margins may reflect heavy reinvestment rather than weak economics. | ||
The stock at $179.66 is above the $177.96 analyst target (distance to target -0.9%), leaving no upside to the target and a reward-to-risk of -0.07. Analyst target | Analyst targets should rise above $189 if earnings keep beating, or the price should drift toward the target. | →Stable |
| CounterA cluster of recent analyst actions and a sentiment score of 7.4/10 suggest targets are being revised upward, so the cap may lift soon. | ||
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 62.3x, with the price-to-sales and forward P/E components at 0.5 and 1.8 out of 10, a rich valuation for a company with a 3.6 quality score. Valuation breakdown | Earnings should grow enough to bring forward P/E below 45x over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe PEG ratio is 0.06, indicating earnings growth is expected to be rapid enough to justify a high multiple. | ||
EPS beat estimates in the last two reports, $0.69 against $0.61 (13.2%) and $0.86 against $0.80 (8.1%), after an in-line and a small miss earlier. Earnings | EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates in the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe beats are against a mixed record of one miss and one in-line result in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of just 3.3%. | ||
News shows a cluster of 4 recent analyst actions with a positive news sentiment of +0.38, supporting an analyst rating score of 8.0/10. Bull case | Analyst ratings should stay constructive and targets should move above the current price. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is described as light and a cluster of actions often follows a price move rather than leading it, so the signal is dampened. | ||
Free cash flow margin is only 2% with a yield of 0.1%, and operating margin scores 1.6/10, even though the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin should rise above 8% as the business scales.
CounterGross margin scores 6.7/10 and the moat component is 6.5, so thin cash margins may reflect heavy reinvestment rather than weak economics.
The stock at $179.66 is above the $177.96 analyst target (distance to target -0.9%), leaving no upside to the target and a reward-to-risk of -0.07.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise above $189 if earnings keep beating, or the price should drift toward the target.
CounterA cluster of recent analyst actions and a sentiment score of 7.4/10 suggest targets are being revised upward, so the cap may lift soon.
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 62.3x, with the price-to-sales and forward P/E components at 0.5 and 1.8 out of 10, a rich valuation for a company with a 3.6 quality score.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings should grow enough to bring forward P/E below 45x over the next 12 months.
CounterThe PEG ratio is 0.06, indicating earnings growth is expected to be rapid enough to justify a high multiple.
EPS beat estimates in the last two reports, $0.69 against $0.61 (13.2%) and $0.86 against $0.80 (8.1%), after an in-line and a small miss earlier.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates in the next four quarters.
CounterThe beats are against a mixed record of one miss and one in-line result in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of just 3.3%.
News shows a cluster of 4 recent analyst actions with a positive news sentiment of +0.38, supporting an analyst rating score of 8.0/10.
↓DeterioratingBull case
- Expectation
- Analyst ratings should stay constructive and targets should move above the current price.
CounterAnalyst coverage is described as light and a cluster of actions often follows a price move rather than leading it, so the signal is dampened.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 2%, FCF yield 0.1%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,396,559 (0.042% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 4.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.1 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.8 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Above max pain $155
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.03
Upside
-0.4%
Downside
13.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.92>1.3
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.0=NEGATIVE outcome against Sentiment at 7.2 and asymmetric R:R of -0.03.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.2, Growth at 6.7, and Momentum at 5.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.2, Value at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $189 so that upside exceeds 5% from the current -0.9%.
- P2Rich Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 45x from the current 62.3x.
- P3Recent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Attention Cluster
Trip ifSentiment score falls below 5.0 from the current 7.4.
- P5Thin Margins Moderate Cash
Trip ifFree cash flow margin rises above 8% from the current 2%.