Value
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 2.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 45.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
PI · Why this verdict
Why Impinj (PI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Impinj is a semiconductor company in a confirmed death cross downtrend with quality below the 4.0 minimum threshold, 16% short interest, and both momentum and asymmetry gates failed — analysts project 28% upside but current technicals do not support new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analysts project 28% upside to a price target of $152.25 from $136.50, the PEG ratio is 0.12 suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its expected growth rate, and the sentiment score is 6.8 out of 10. Sentiment breakdown | Price rises above $152.00 within 12 months if the technical picture resolves and earnings growth materializes as the analyst community expects. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLight analyst coverage of 8 analysts with 16% short interest suggests significant disagreement about the growth outlook; the high put-to-call ratio of 1.17 indicates more hedging than bullish speculation. | ||
Impinj has a quality score of 3.0 out of 10, below the 4.0 minimum investment threshold, with ROA and ROE near zero, no recognized competitive moat, and modest FCF margin of 15% at a FCF yield of only 1.3%. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 as FCF margin expands beyond 20% and ROA turns positive on a sustainable basis within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe gross margin score of 6.5 indicates healthy product-level margins; quality weakness may reflect investment-phase spending that compresses current profitability but positions the company for scale. | ||
A hard block death cross is in place with the stock below its 200-day moving average (slope flat), momentum at 3.6 out of 10 below the 4.5 gate, and MACD at 0 — a triple-gate failure that prohibits new position entry. Momentum breakdown | Death cross resolves with price rising above the 200-day moving average, and momentum score exceeds 5.0 within 6 months before re-evaluating entry. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOBV shows volume accumulation despite the price weakness, and the stock is trading at only 1% of its 52-week range from the low — contrarian accumulation conditions can precede reversals. | ||
Short interest of 16% and implied volatility of 122% indicate significant bearish positioning and uncertainty about near-term direction, with days-to-cover at 4.6 days creating potential squeeze risk in either direction. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 10% within 12 months as bearish pressure abates following improved business performance. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest at 16% can act as fuel for a short squeeze if a positive catalyst emerges, potentially amplifying any upside move beyond what fundamentals alone would support. | ||
Analysts project 28% upside to a price target of $152.25 from $136.50, the PEG ratio is 0.12 suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its expected growth rate, and the sentiment score is 6.8 out of 10.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $152.00 within 12 months if the technical picture resolves and earnings growth materializes as the analyst community expects.
CounterLight analyst coverage of 8 analysts with 16% short interest suggests significant disagreement about the growth outlook; the high put-to-call ratio of 1.17 indicates more hedging than bullish speculation.
Impinj has a quality score of 3.0 out of 10, below the 4.0 minimum investment threshold, with ROA and ROE near zero, no recognized competitive moat, and modest FCF margin of 15% at a FCF yield of only 1.3%.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 as FCF margin expands beyond 20% and ROA turns positive on a sustainable basis within 12 months.
CounterThe gross margin score of 6.5 indicates healthy product-level margins; quality weakness may reflect investment-phase spending that compresses current profitability but positions the company for scale.
A hard block death cross is in place with the stock below its 200-day moving average (slope flat), momentum at 3.6 out of 10 below the 4.5 gate, and MACD at 0 — a triple-gate failure that prohibits new position entry.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Death cross resolves with price rising above the 200-day moving average, and momentum score exceeds 5.0 within 6 months before re-evaluating entry.
CounterOBV shows volume accumulation despite the price weakness, and the stock is trading at only 1% of its 52-week range from the low — contrarian accumulation conditions can precede reversals.
Short interest of 16% and implied volatility of 122% indicate significant bearish positioning and uncertainty about near-term direction, with days-to-cover at 4.6 days creating potential squeeze risk in either direction.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 10% within 12 months as bearish pressure abates following improved business performance.
CounterHigh short interest at 16% can act as fuel for a short squeeze if a positive catalyst emerges, potentially amplifying any upside move beyond what fundamentals alone would support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 15%, FCF yield 1.4%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
Momentum
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.8 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $74,579,416 (1.920% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 0.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.9 |
| days to cover | 0.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 16%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.09
- ▸High IV: 102%
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.3 |
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:1.4<4.5
- INSIDER:1.92%=EXTREME
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.56
Upside
+19.4%
Downside
12.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -48% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.4<4.5 outcome against Sentiment at 7.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.56.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.0, Technical at 6.4, and Value at 5.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 1.5, and Growth at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters or quality score drops below 2.5, indicating further deterioration.
- P2Death Cross Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $120 or momentum score falls below 3.0, indicating the downtrend is deepening rather than stabilizing.
- P3High Short Interest Pressure
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% or implied volatility exceeds 150%, indicating increasing systemic bearish pressure.
- P4Analyst Upside Growth Potential
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $120.00, reducing implied upside to less than 0% from current price levels.