Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
PCRX · Why this verdict
Why Pacira BioSciences (PCRX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Pacira BioSciences has a market cap of $890 million, which is below the $1 billion minimum size threshold for the investable universe — this cap constraint removes it from standard portfolio consideration regardless of other fundamental factors. Warnings | Market cap recovers above $1 billion within 12 months as price rises above $25.81 analyst target, returning the stock to investable universe eligibility. | →Stable |
| CounterWith 24% short interest and a put/call ratio of 7.00, the market is positioned for continued price weakness that could push market cap further below the $1 billion threshold rather than recovering above it. | ||
Despite sub-threshold market cap, Pacira earns a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score and converts 1,000% of net income into free cash flow — the highest cash conversion in the dataset — indicating exceptional balance sheet quality relative to its small size. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion stays above 500% of net income for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the Piotroski quality signal. | →Stable |
| CounterA 1,000% free cash flow to net income ratio is extremely unusual and may reflect accounting or timing anomalies rather than durable cash generation; the Rule of 40 score of only 18 indicates the business is not delivering combined growth and margin performance at a competitive level. | ||
With 24% short interest and a put/call ratio of 7.00 — the highest in the dataset — bearish positioning is at an extreme level that creates significant short-covering risk if any positive catalyst emerges. Options | Short interest falls below 15% within 12 months as the bearish thesis is tested by upcoming earnings results. | →Stable |
| CounterA 7.00 put/call ratio is extraordinarily bearish and typically reflects informed options positioning around a specific known risk — such as clinical trial data, regulatory review, or competitive threat — that is not visible in the quantitative data. | ||
Pacira has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and with RSI near 30 at capitulation-risk levels, the combination of positive earnings delivery and oversold technical conditions creates a setup where the next beat could catalyze a meaningful price recovery. Earnings | Earnings beat consensus by more than 5% in the next quarter and price rises above $25 within 30 days of the report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent miss was a severe 37% shortfall that overwhelmed the prior beat streak; capitulation-risk RSI in a name with extreme bearish options positioning may reflect genuine fundamental deterioration rather than technical oversold conditions. | ||
Pacira BioSciences has a market cap of $890 million, which is below the $1 billion minimum size threshold for the investable universe — this cap constraint removes it from standard portfolio consideration regardless of other fundamental factors.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Market cap recovers above $1 billion within 12 months as price rises above $25.81 analyst target, returning the stock to investable universe eligibility.
CounterWith 24% short interest and a put/call ratio of 7.00, the market is positioned for continued price weakness that could push market cap further below the $1 billion threshold rather than recovering above it.
Despite sub-threshold market cap, Pacira earns a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score and converts 1,000% of net income into free cash flow — the highest cash conversion in the dataset — indicating exceptional balance sheet quality relative to its small size.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion stays above 500% of net income for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the Piotroski quality signal.
CounterA 1,000% free cash flow to net income ratio is extremely unusual and may reflect accounting or timing anomalies rather than durable cash generation; the Rule of 40 score of only 18 indicates the business is not delivering combined growth and margin performance at a competitive level.
With 24% short interest and a put/call ratio of 7.00 — the highest in the dataset — bearish positioning is at an extreme level that creates significant short-covering risk if any positive catalyst emerges.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% within 12 months as the bearish thesis is tested by upcoming earnings results.
CounterA 7.00 put/call ratio is extraordinarily bearish and typically reflects informed options positioning around a specific known risk — such as clinical trial data, regulatory review, or competitive threat — that is not visible in the quantitative data.
Pacira has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and with RSI near 30 at capitulation-risk levels, the combination of positive earnings delivery and oversold technical conditions creates a setup where the next beat could catalyze a meaningful price recovery.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat consensus by more than 5% in the next quarter and price rises above $25 within 30 days of the report.
CounterThe most recent miss was a severe 37% shortfall that overwhelmed the prior beat streak; capitulation-risk RSI in a name with extreme bearish options positioning may reflect genuine fundamental deterioration rather than technical oversold conditions.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pacira BioSciences trades below the $1 billion minimum investable universe threshold at $890 million market cap, carries a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score with exceptional free cash flow conversion, but faces 24% short interest, a put/call ratio of 7.00, and capitulation-risk RSI near 30 — making this a sub-threshold speculative situation rather than a standard investment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.2 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 18 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 6.7 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.65 (n=4)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,000,364 (0.100% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 4.9 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.8 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸High short interest: 23%
- ▸High IV: 77%
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.1 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.12
Upside
+1.7%
Downside
13.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.12 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.3, Value at 7.0, and Momentum at 6.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.4, Insider at 3.4, and Technical at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Below Threshold Market Cap Flag
Trip ifMarket cap falls below $750 million for more than 20 consecutive trading days, moving further below the minimum investable threshold.
- P2Perfect Piotroski Fcf Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 200% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the quality signal has deteriorated.
- P3Elevated Put Call Short Interest Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30% of float, indicating bearish conviction is intensifying beyond already-elevated levels.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak Vs Momentum
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 20% in the upcoming quarter and price drops below $19 within 5 trading days of the report.