Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.32
- ▸Attractively valued
PB · Why this verdict
Why Prosperity Bancshares (PB) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Prosperity Bancshares generates a 40% net margin, which is best-in-class among regional bank peers, reflecting the efficiency of its Texas-Oklahoma community banking franchise and conservative credit underwriting. Peer-rank breakdown | Net margin stays above 30% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the earnings efficiency advantage over peers. | →Stable |
| CounterReal estate loan portfolio concentration at 80% in Texas and Oklahoma creates geographic and credit concentration risk; a regional economic downturn could rapidly compress net interest margins and push up charge-offs. | ||
Prosperity Bancshares has formed a golden cross with the stock above all moving averages, a bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume — confirming technical breakout conditions that historically precede sustained uptrends in regional banks. V9 | Price holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 consecutive months and momentum score remains above 6.0 throughout. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already 4.7% above its analyst consensus target, making the breakout a potential sell-signal rather than a buy signal; technical strength at an overvalued level is a classic distribution setup. | ||
With 3 of 4 recent earnings beats and a forward P/E of 9.9x at a PEG of 0.32, the bank combines growing earnings with an attractive valuation, suggesting the market is underpricing its growth rate. Earnings | The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the majority-beat pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter missed by 11.9% on an estimate of $1.32 — a significant shortfall that raises questions about whether the revenue and earnings growth trend is durable in a potentially slowing loan demand environment. | ||
Prosperity Bancshares pays a dividend with 334% earnings coverage, providing a substantial income cushion that supports total return even if price appreciation is limited by the current above-target valuation. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend per share is maintained or increased over the next 4 quarters without a cut. | →Stable |
| CounterWith concentration risks flagged as 2 HIGH and 2 MEDIUM in regulatory filings, an economic shock to Texas could impair earnings and test dividend sustainability faster than the coverage ratio suggests. | ||
Prosperity Bancshares generates a 40% net margin, which is best-in-class among regional bank peers, reflecting the efficiency of its Texas-Oklahoma community banking franchise and conservative credit underwriting.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 30% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the earnings efficiency advantage over peers.
CounterReal estate loan portfolio concentration at 80% in Texas and Oklahoma creates geographic and credit concentration risk; a regional economic downturn could rapidly compress net interest margins and push up charge-offs.
Prosperity Bancshares has formed a golden cross with the stock above all moving averages, a bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume — confirming technical breakout conditions that historically precede sustained uptrends in regional banks.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 consecutive months and momentum score remains above 6.0 throughout.
CounterThe stock is already 4.7% above its analyst consensus target, making the breakout a potential sell-signal rather than a buy signal; technical strength at an overvalued level is a classic distribution setup.
With 3 of 4 recent earnings beats and a forward P/E of 9.9x at a PEG of 0.32, the bank combines growing earnings with an attractive valuation, suggesting the market is underpricing its growth rate.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the majority-beat pattern.
CounterThe most recent quarter missed by 11.9% on an estimate of $1.32 — a significant shortfall that raises questions about whether the revenue and earnings growth trend is durable in a potentially slowing loan demand environment.
Prosperity Bancshares pays a dividend with 334% earnings coverage, providing a substantial income cushion that supports total return even if price appreciation is limited by the current above-target valuation.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend per share is maintained or increased over the next 4 quarters without a cut.
CounterWith concentration risks flagged as 2 HIGH and 2 MEDIUM in regulatory filings, an economic shock to Texas could impair earnings and test dividend sustainability faster than the coverage ratio suggests.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Prosperity Bancshares is in a confirmed breakout with golden cross and MACD bullish, has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and trades at a PEG of 0.32 — but the stock has already surpassed its analyst target, leaving negative upside of 4.7% and limiting near-term entry appeal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.5 |
| EPS growth | 8.2 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 1.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (3.2x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,023,326 (0.012% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 336.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.50
Upside
-2.8%
Downside
5.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 26d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.8; weakest: Momentum at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Value at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 4.6, Peer rank at 5.0, and Insider at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.50 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Golden Cross Technical Breakout
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and holds below that level for more than 10 consecutive trading days.
- P240 Pct Net Margin Peer Leader
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating meaningful margin compression.
- P3Earnings Beat Value Combination
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 8% in 2 of the next 4 quarters, reversing the beat pattern.
- P4Dividend Coverage Income Support
Trip ifDividend per share decreases by more than 15% in any single quarter.