Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.49
- ▸Attractively valued
PATK · Why this verdict
Why Patrick Industries (PATK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Patrick Industries has delivered a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with an average surprise of 8.6%, and trades at a PEG of 0.27 with 21% analyst upside, though a confirmed death cross and declining revenue trend present near-term technical headwinds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Patrick Industries has beaten Wall Street earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.6%, demonstrating consistent operational outperformance in the recreational vehicle supply chain. Catalyst breakdown | The company continues to beat consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining its delivery track record. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 4-quarter beat streak may reflect conservatively set estimates rather than genuine outperformance; the recreational vehicle market faces cyclical volume risk as consumer discretionary spending tightens. | ||
At a PEG ratio of 0.27 and forward P/E of 14.5x, Patrick Industries is priced well below its earnings growth rate, with analyst consensus implying 21% upside to roughly $104. Valuation breakdown | Price reaches above $100 within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward analyst targets. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue declined 1% in the most recent period and no clear competitive moat is identified, which limits the case for sustained multiple expansion. | ||
Rising on-balance volume indicates that buying pressure is building even as price remains below the 200-day moving average, suggesting accumulation ahead of a potential trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume trend remains positive for at least 6 of the next 12 months, indicating sustained institutional buying. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPrice remains in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average sloping down at 1.8% per month, meaning accumulation alone may not be sufficient to reverse price momentum. | ||
Patrick Industries pays a dividend with coverage at 218%, providing an income floor that supports valuation and signals management confidence in cash generation sustainability. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend payout is maintained or increased over the next 12 months without a cut, sustaining the income floor. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith revenue declining and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.4x, dividend sustainability depends on continued earnings stability in a potentially weakening recreational vehicle demand environment. | ||
Patrick Industries has beaten Wall Street earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.6%, demonstrating consistent operational outperformance in the recreational vehicle supply chain.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company continues to beat consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining its delivery track record.
CounterThe 4-quarter beat streak may reflect conservatively set estimates rather than genuine outperformance; the recreational vehicle market faces cyclical volume risk as consumer discretionary spending tightens.
At a PEG ratio of 0.27 and forward P/E of 14.5x, Patrick Industries is priced well below its earnings growth rate, with analyst consensus implying 21% upside to roughly $104.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reaches above $100 within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward analyst targets.
CounterRevenue declined 1% in the most recent period and no clear competitive moat is identified, which limits the case for sustained multiple expansion.
Rising on-balance volume indicates that buying pressure is building even as price remains below the 200-day moving average, suggesting accumulation ahead of a potential trend reversal.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume trend remains positive for at least 6 of the next 12 months, indicating sustained institutional buying.
CounterPrice remains in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average sloping down at 1.8% per month, meaning accumulation alone may not be sufficient to reverse price momentum.
Patrick Industries pays a dividend with coverage at 218%, providing an income floor that supports valuation and signals management confidence in cash generation sustainability.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend payout is maintained or increased over the next 12 months without a cut, sustaining the income floor.
CounterWith revenue declining and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.4x, dividend sustainability depends on continued earnings stability in a potentially weakening recreational vehicle demand environment.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.7 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 1.7 |
| Current ratio | 8.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 8.5 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 81)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
0.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 1.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 1.5 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 6.1 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
- ▸High short interest: 26%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.2 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.3>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.34
Upside
+5.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Catalyst at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 0.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 5% in 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the streak below the prior outperformance pattern.
- P2Peg Discount Valuation
Trip ifPrice drops below $75 and holds below that level for more than 10 trading days, invalidating the analyst upside thesis.
- P3Volume Accumulation Signal
Trip ifOn-balance volume declines for more than 3 consecutive months, indicating the accumulation thesis has reversed.
- P4Dividend Income Support
Trip ifDividend per share decreases by more than 20% from the current level in any single quarter.