Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.9 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
- ▸Attractively valued
PATK · Why this verdict
Why Patrick Industries (PATK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Patrick Industries has beaten Wall Street earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.6%, demonstrating consistent operational outperformance in the recreational vehicle supply chain. Catalyst breakdown | The company continues to beat consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining its delivery track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 4-quarter beat streak may reflect conservatively set estimates rather than genuine outperformance; the recreational vehicle market faces cyclical volume risk as consumer discretionary spending tightens. | ||
At a PEG ratio of 0.27 and forward P/E of 14.5x, Patrick Industries is priced well below its earnings growth rate, with analyst consensus implying 21% upside to roughly $104. Valuation breakdown | Price reaches above $100 within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward analyst targets. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue declined 1% in the most recent period and no clear competitive moat is identified, which limits the case for sustained multiple expansion. | ||
Rising on-balance volume indicates that buying pressure is building even as price remains below the 200-day moving average, suggesting accumulation ahead of a potential trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume trend remains positive for at least 6 of the next 12 months, indicating sustained institutional buying. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice remains in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average sloping down at 1.8% per month, meaning accumulation alone may not be sufficient to reverse price momentum. | ||
Patrick Industries pays a dividend with coverage at 218%, providing an income floor that supports valuation and signals management confidence in cash generation sustainability. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend payout is maintained or increased over the next 12 months without a cut, sustaining the income floor. | →Stable |
| CounterWith revenue declining and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.4x, dividend sustainability depends on continued earnings stability in a potentially weakening recreational vehicle demand environment. | ||
Patrick Industries has beaten Wall Street earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.6%, demonstrating consistent operational outperformance in the recreational vehicle supply chain.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company continues to beat consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining its delivery track record.
CounterThe 4-quarter beat streak may reflect conservatively set estimates rather than genuine outperformance; the recreational vehicle market faces cyclical volume risk as consumer discretionary spending tightens.
At a PEG ratio of 0.27 and forward P/E of 14.5x, Patrick Industries is priced well below its earnings growth rate, with analyst consensus implying 21% upside to roughly $104.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reaches above $100 within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward analyst targets.
CounterRevenue declined 1% in the most recent period and no clear competitive moat is identified, which limits the case for sustained multiple expansion.
Rising on-balance volume indicates that buying pressure is building even as price remains below the 200-day moving average, suggesting accumulation ahead of a potential trend reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume trend remains positive for at least 6 of the next 12 months, indicating sustained institutional buying.
CounterPrice remains in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average sloping down at 1.8% per month, meaning accumulation alone may not be sufficient to reverse price momentum.
Patrick Industries pays a dividend with coverage at 218%, providing an income floor that supports valuation and signals management confidence in cash generation sustainability.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend payout is maintained or increased over the next 12 months without a cut, sustaining the income floor.
CounterWith revenue declining and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.4x, dividend sustainability depends on continued earnings stability in a potentially weakening recreational vehicle demand environment.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Patrick Industries has delivered a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with an average surprise of 8.6%, and trades at a PEG of 0.27 with 21% analyst upside, though a confirmed death cross and declining revenue trend present near-term technical headwinds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 1.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $2,532,841 (0.090% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 221.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.3>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.28
Upside
+21.8%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.28 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Sentiment at 7.4, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.2, Quality at 4.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 5% in 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the streak below the prior outperformance pattern.
- P2Peg Discount Valuation
Trip ifPrice drops below $75 and holds below that level for more than 10 trading days, invalidating the analyst upside thesis.
- P3Volume Accumulation Signal
Trip ifOn-balance volume declines for more than 3 consecutive months, indicating the accumulation thesis has reversed.
- P4Dividend Income Support
Trip ifDividend per share decreases by more than 20% from the current level in any single quarter.