Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.6 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.47
OSW · Why this verdict
Why OneSpaWorld Holdings (OSW) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
OneSpaWorld is in a strong technical position with 7.8 momentum and consistent growth, but the stock has exhausted its near-term upside with negative 0.2% implied return at current levels and an inverted risk-reward, making it a hold rather than a new-buy situation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 reflects strong underlying financial health with consistently solid earnings execution — the company beat or matched estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 7 or above and the company beats or matches earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 51% of net income, which is an earnings quality warning suggesting reported profits may overstate actual cash generation. | ||
The stock shows strong momentum with RSI at 71 and rising on-balance volume, trading above the 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD, reflecting healthy price accumulation by institutional buyers. Momentum breakdown | Price remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 months and on-balance volume continues rising. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI of 71 is technically overbought and the stock is only 1.8% from its 52-week high, suggesting the momentum may be at or near exhaustion. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.47 and earnings growth contribution of 10.0 in the scoring model suggest the market is meaningfully underpricing the growth trajectory for a leisure operator benefiting from cruise industry expansion. Valuation breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 8% for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLeisure sector growth is cyclically sensitive; any pullback in consumer discretionary spending or cruise industry capacity growth could rapidly slow the growth trajectory. | ||
The stock is trading 0.2% above its near-term resistance target with negative 0.2% implied upside, meaning current holders have captured the near-term price objective and new positions lack a clear return profile. Bear case | Analysts raise targets above $29 to provide a fresh 10% or more upside cushion within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets in leisure stocks are often set conservatively and frequently lag the stock's actual trajectory during strong industry cycles. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 reflects strong underlying financial health with consistently solid earnings execution — the company beat or matched estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 7 or above and the company beats or matches earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterFree cash flow is only 51% of net income, which is an earnings quality warning suggesting reported profits may overstate actual cash generation.
The stock shows strong momentum with RSI at 71 and rising on-balance volume, trading above the 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD, reflecting healthy price accumulation by institutional buyers.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 months and on-balance volume continues rising.
CounterRSI of 71 is technically overbought and the stock is only 1.8% from its 52-week high, suggesting the momentum may be at or near exhaustion.
A PEG ratio of 0.47 and earnings growth contribution of 10.0 in the scoring model suggest the market is meaningfully underpricing the growth trajectory for a leisure operator benefiting from cruise industry expansion.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 8% for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months.
CounterLeisure sector growth is cyclically sensitive; any pullback in consumer discretionary spending or cruise industry capacity growth could rapidly slow the growth trajectory.
The stock is trading 0.2% above its near-term resistance target with negative 0.2% implied upside, meaning current holders have captured the near-term price objective and new positions lack a clear return profile.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $29 to provide a fresh 10% or more upside cushion within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets in leisure stocks are often set conservatively and frequently lag the stock's actual trajectory during strong industry cycles.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.1 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 51% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $5,627,786 (0.210% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.8% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.29
Upside
-1.8%
Downside
6.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 8.5; weakest: Momentum at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.5, Growth at 7.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Catalyst at 5.1, and Quality at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Momentum Above All Mas
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume declines for 30 consecutive days.
- P2Growth Profile Peg
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Analyst Target Reached No Upside
Trip ifNo analyst target above $28 emerges within 6 months despite continued earnings execution.
- P4Piotroski Quality Earnings
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 in any reported period.