Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 9.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.51
OSW · Why this verdict
Why OneSpaWorld Holdings (OSW) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 reflects strong underlying financial health with consistently solid earnings execution — the company beat or matched estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 7 or above and the company beats or matches earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 51% of net income, which is an earnings quality warning suggesting reported profits may overstate actual cash generation. | ||
The stock shows strong momentum with RSI at 71 and rising on-balance volume, trading above the 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD, reflecting healthy price accumulation by institutional buyers. Momentum breakdown | Price remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 months and on-balance volume continues rising. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI of 71 is technically overbought and the stock is only 1.8% from its 52-week high, suggesting the momentum may be at or near exhaustion. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.47 and earnings growth contribution of 10.0 in the scoring model suggest the market is meaningfully underpricing the growth trajectory for a leisure operator benefiting from cruise industry expansion. Valuation breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 8% for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLeisure sector growth is cyclically sensitive; any pullback in consumer discretionary spending or cruise industry capacity growth could rapidly slow the growth trajectory. | ||
The stock is trading 0.2% above its near-term resistance target with negative 0.2% implied upside, meaning current holders have captured the near-term price objective and new positions lack a clear return profile. Bear case | Analysts raise targets above $29 to provide a fresh 10% or more upside cushion within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets in leisure stocks are often set conservatively and frequently lag the stock's actual trajectory during strong industry cycles. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 reflects strong underlying financial health with consistently solid earnings execution — the company beat or matched estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 7 or above and the company beats or matches earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterFree cash flow is only 51% of net income, which is an earnings quality warning suggesting reported profits may overstate actual cash generation.
The stock shows strong momentum with RSI at 71 and rising on-balance volume, trading above the 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD, reflecting healthy price accumulation by institutional buyers.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 months and on-balance volume continues rising.
CounterRSI of 71 is technically overbought and the stock is only 1.8% from its 52-week high, suggesting the momentum may be at or near exhaustion.
A PEG ratio of 0.47 and earnings growth contribution of 10.0 in the scoring model suggest the market is meaningfully underpricing the growth trajectory for a leisure operator benefiting from cruise industry expansion.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 8% for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months.
CounterLeisure sector growth is cyclically sensitive; any pullback in consumer discretionary spending or cruise industry capacity growth could rapidly slow the growth trajectory.
The stock is trading 0.2% above its near-term resistance target with negative 0.2% implied upside, meaning current holders have captured the near-term price objective and new positions lack a clear return profile.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $29 to provide a fresh 10% or more upside cushion within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets in leisure stocks are often set conservatively and frequently lag the stock's actual trajectory during strong industry cycles.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
OneSpaWorld is in a strong technical position with 7.8 momentum and consistent growth, but the stock has exhausted its near-term upside with negative 0.2% implied return at current levels and an inverted risk-reward, making it a hold rather than a new-buy situation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.1 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 51% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 9.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $5,627,786 (0.193% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 1.0 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 70.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.72
Upside
-10.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.72 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Sentiment at 6.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.8; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Technical at 4.1, and Catalyst at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Momentum Above All Mas
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume declines for 30 consecutive days.
- P2Growth Profile Peg
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Analyst Target Reached No Upside
Trip ifNo analyst target above $28 emerges within 6 months despite continued earnings execution.
- P4Piotroski Quality Earnings
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 in any reported period.