Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
ORN · Why this verdict
Why Orion Group Holdings (ORN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Orion Group shows strong reported growth numbers, but an earnings-quality red flag from negative free cash flow relative to net income, a borderline momentum gate failure, and notable insider selling raise caution around the recently-reached price target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Orion Group shows an earnings-quality red flag, with free cash flow at -55% of net income despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion turns positive, exceeding 0%. | Tripped— |
| CounterA single-period negative FCF-to-net-income ratio in construction can reflect timing of working-capital build for large projects rather than a genuine earnings-quality problem. | ||
The momentum gate failed at 4.0, just short of the 4.5 threshold, with on-balance volume showing distribution even as price holds above the 200-day average. Engine gate (failed) | The momentum score rises above 4.5 as selling pressure eases. | — |
| CounterA momentum score this close to the threshold could clear the bar with only a small improvement in price action. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, with only 1.5% implied upside remaining, and the asymmetry ratio is just 0.12 given 12.9% downside risk. Bear case | The upside-to-target gap widens to more than 10% as either the price target is raised or the stock pulls back. | Tripped— |
| CounterContinued strong growth and earnings could prompt analysts to raise the price target further, closing the upside gap without requiring a price decline. | ||
Notable insider selling of $606,512 (0.101% of market cap) adds a bearish signal on top of the quality concerns. Insider breakdown | Insider selling activity declines to below $300,000 in the next 90-day window. | — |
| CounterModest insider sales of this size are common and don't necessarily reflect a negative view on the company's prospects. | ||
Revenue growth scores 6.2 and earnings growth scores a perfect 10.0 on the engine's 0-10 scale, suggesting the underlying business is still expanding despite the quality concerns. Components | The growth score stays above 6.0 as revenue and earnings expansion continue. | — |
| CounterStrong reported earnings growth combined with a negative FCF-to-net-income ratio could indicate the earnings growth is not being converted into real cash, undermining its quality. | ||
Orion Group shows an earnings-quality red flag, with free cash flow at -55% of net income despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
Tripped—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion turns positive, exceeding 0%.
CounterA single-period negative FCF-to-net-income ratio in construction can reflect timing of working-capital build for large projects rather than a genuine earnings-quality problem.
The momentum gate failed at 4.0, just short of the 4.5 threshold, with on-balance volume showing distribution even as price holds above the 200-day average.
—Engine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The momentum score rises above 4.5 as selling pressure eases.
CounterA momentum score this close to the threshold could clear the bar with only a small improvement in price action.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, with only 1.5% implied upside remaining, and the asymmetry ratio is just 0.12 given 12.9% downside risk.
Tripped—Bear case
- Expectation
- The upside-to-target gap widens to more than 10% as either the price target is raised or the stock pulls back.
CounterContinued strong growth and earnings could prompt analysts to raise the price target further, closing the upside gap without requiring a price decline.
Notable insider selling of $606,512 (0.101% of market cap) adds a bearish signal on top of the quality concerns.
—Insider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling activity declines to below $300,000 in the next 90-day window.
CounterModest insider sales of this size are common and don't necessarily reflect a negative view on the company's prospects.
Revenue growth scores 6.2 and earnings growth scores a perfect 10.0 on the engine's 0-10 scale, suggesting the underlying business is still expanding despite the quality concerns.
—Components
- Expectation
- The growth score stays above 6.0 as revenue and earnings expansion continue.
CounterStrong reported earnings growth combined with a negative FCF-to-net-income ratio could indicate the earnings growth is not being converted into real cash, undermining its quality.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.8 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -580% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 6.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 54%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $320,840 (0.080% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 7.4 |
| 52w position | 1.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 5.1 |
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:71d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.28
Upside
+34.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -43% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.6<4.5 outcome against Sentiment at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of 2.28.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.8, Catalyst at 6.8, and Value at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Momentum at 2.6, and Peer rank at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Quality Red FlagTripped
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below -80% from the current -55%.
- P2Borderline Momentum Gate Fail
Trip ifThe momentum score falls below 2.5 out of 10 from the current 4.0.
- P3Target Reached Valuation CeilingTripped
Trip ifThe stock trades more than 10% above its analyst price target, worse than the current 1.5% upside.
- P4Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $1,500,000 in a single 90-day window, more than double the current $606,512.
- P5Growth Score Strength
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 0% YoY from the current positive pace.