Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.26
- ▸Attractively valued
ONB · Why this verdict
Why Old National Bancorp (ONB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Old National achieved 46% revenue growth year-over-year, ranking as the industry growth leader among regional banking peers, reflecting successful expansion through acquisitions or organic loan and deposit growth in its Midwest and Southeast markets. Growth breakdown | Revenue grows by more than 15% year-over-year in each of the next 2 reported quarters, confirming the growth trajectory is sustaining beyond the initial expansion phase. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth of 46% in a regional bank typically reflects an acquisition rather than organic growth, which means future periods will face a tougher comparison base and the reported growth rate will normalize sharply in subsequent quarters. | ||
Old National's geographic concentration in the Midwest and Southeast, combined with OCC regulatory concentration, creates a dual-layer risk where an economic downturn in those specific markets or a regulatory action from the primary regulator could disproportionately impact the business relative to more diversified peers. Bear case | Loan portfolio remains diversified with no single geographic market representing more than 40% of total loans, limiting the impact of regional economic weakness. | →Stable |
| CounterGeographic focus in well-understood regional markets can be a competitive advantage — regional banks with deep local relationships often achieve better credit underwriting outcomes than national banks operating in the same geographies. | ||
Old National has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with consistent positive surprises of 0.9%, 4.4%, 5.0%, and 2.3%, suggesting stable execution and conservative guidance-setting that provides a track record of reliable delivery. Earnings | Beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average positive surprise remaining above 2%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise of 3.1% is narrow and could easily turn negative with a small deterioration in net interest margin or an increase in loan loss provisions — common risks for regional banks exposed to commercial real estate in the current rate environment. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.40 is significantly elevated, indicating options market participants are paying meaningfully more for downside protection than upside participation, and the negative asymmetry ratio of -0.27 means the stock is already priced beyond the near-term upside target. Key risks | Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within 3 months as the stock price consolidates below the $25 resistance level and options hedging demand normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio in a regional bank stock may reflect institutional holders hedging their concentrated positions rather than outright bearish speculation, and the positive momentum score of 7.8 suggests the primary trend remains constructive. | ||
Old National achieved 46% revenue growth year-over-year, ranking as the industry growth leader among regional banking peers, reflecting successful expansion through acquisitions or organic loan and deposit growth in its Midwest and Southeast markets.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue grows by more than 15% year-over-year in each of the next 2 reported quarters, confirming the growth trajectory is sustaining beyond the initial expansion phase.
CounterRevenue growth of 46% in a regional bank typically reflects an acquisition rather than organic growth, which means future periods will face a tougher comparison base and the reported growth rate will normalize sharply in subsequent quarters.
Old National's geographic concentration in the Midwest and Southeast, combined with OCC regulatory concentration, creates a dual-layer risk where an economic downturn in those specific markets or a regulatory action from the primary regulator could disproportionately impact the business relative to more diversified peers.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Loan portfolio remains diversified with no single geographic market representing more than 40% of total loans, limiting the impact of regional economic weakness.
CounterGeographic focus in well-understood regional markets can be a competitive advantage — regional banks with deep local relationships often achieve better credit underwriting outcomes than national banks operating in the same geographies.
Old National has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with consistent positive surprises of 0.9%, 4.4%, 5.0%, and 2.3%, suggesting stable execution and conservative guidance-setting that provides a track record of reliable delivery.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average positive surprise remaining above 2%.
CounterThe average surprise of 3.1% is narrow and could easily turn negative with a small deterioration in net interest margin or an increase in loan loss provisions — common risks for regional banks exposed to commercial real estate in the current rate environment.
A put/call ratio of 2.40 is significantly elevated, indicating options market participants are paying meaningfully more for downside protection than upside participation, and the negative asymmetry ratio of -0.27 means the stock is already priced beyond the near-term upside target.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within 3 months as the stock price consolidates below the $25 resistance level and options hedging demand normalizes.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio in a regional bank stock may reflect institutional holders hedging their concentrated positions rather than outright bearish speculation, and the positive momentum score of 7.8 suggests the primary trend remains constructive.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Old National Bancorp has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 3.1% and ranks as the industry growth leader among regional banks with 46% revenue growth year-over-year, but geographic concentration in the Midwest and Southeast alongside regulatory concentration with the OCC and a negative asymmetry ratio limit near-term upside appeal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 8.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 46% YoY
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 9.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 3.3 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 8.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 223.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.59
Upside
-5.6%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 18d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.4; weakest: Technical at 4.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.4, Value at 7.9, and Momentum at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 4.4, Insider at 5.0, and Quality at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the post-acquisition growth surge has normalized to a low-growth trajectory.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -3% for 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the consistent positive beat pattern.
- P3Geographic Regulatory Concentration
Trip ifNon-performing loan ratio rises above 1.5% of total loans for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling geographic concentration risk is materializing in credit quality.
- P4Elevated Put Call Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.0, indicating hedging demand is intensifying rather than normalizing.