Value
1.6/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 1.6 |
- ▸Expensive valuation
OGG · Why this verdict
Why Osisko Gold Group (OGG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Osisko Gold Group is a gold name in a confirmed downtrend, down 51% from its high and oversold, with 150% analyst-target upside and strong margins offset by a severe earnings-quality warning and a rich valuation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The $5.87 analyst target is 149.6% above the $2.35 price (194% raw analyst upside), for a reward-to-risk of 13.85 against 10.8% downside. Bull case | The price should move toward the analyst target if gold prices and production hold over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst upside above 100% on a stock down 51% suggests targets may lag a deteriorating situation, and the valuation score of 2.3/10 shows the stock is not cheap. | ||
Momentum is 3.3/10 with the price below its 200-day average, a slope of -4.7% over 30 days and RSI at 25, a confirmed downtrend with capitulation-level readings. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should recover above 4.5 as the oversold bounce develops. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI at 25 and a Bollinger score of 8.6 indicate selling is stretched, and a volume surge could mark a bounce base rather than a continued fall. | ||
The engine flags an expensive valuation, with a price-to-sales score of only 2.3/10 and a value score of 2.3/10 overall. Valuation breakdown | Valuation should become less demanding as earnings grow into the current price. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterValue confidence is just 0.2 and a price-to-sales multiple is a weak yardstick for a gold company with swings in production. | ||
Free cash flow is -296% of net income, an earnings-quality red flag that undermines reported profits. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive and approach net income within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGold developers and royalty-style businesses often show negative free cash flow while building assets, and operating margin scores 9.9/10, so profitability is real. | ||
The company ranks as best-in-class on margins and an industry growth leader, with gross margin and operating margin components at 8.9 and 9.9 out of 10. Peer-rank breakdown | Margins should stay at current levels while the peer growth rank stays above 8. | →Stable |
| CounterMargins in gold depend on the gold price, and a drop would compress them sharply, while the valuation score of 2.3/10 shows investors already pay up for them. | ||
The $5.87 analyst target is 149.6% above the $2.35 price (194% raw analyst upside), for a reward-to-risk of 13.85 against 10.8% downside.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The price should move toward the analyst target if gold prices and production hold over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst upside above 100% on a stock down 51% suggests targets may lag a deteriorating situation, and the valuation score of 2.3/10 shows the stock is not cheap.
Momentum is 3.3/10 with the price below its 200-day average, a slope of -4.7% over 30 days and RSI at 25, a confirmed downtrend with capitulation-level readings.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5 as the oversold bounce develops.
CounterRSI at 25 and a Bollinger score of 8.6 indicate selling is stretched, and a volume surge could mark a bounce base rather than a continued fall.
The engine flags an expensive valuation, with a price-to-sales score of only 2.3/10 and a value score of 2.3/10 overall.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation should become less demanding as earnings grow into the current price.
CounterValue confidence is just 0.2 and a price-to-sales multiple is a weak yardstick for a gold company with swings in production.
Free cash flow is -296% of net income, an earnings-quality red flag that undermines reported profits.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive and approach net income within 12 months.
CounterGold developers and royalty-style businesses often show negative free cash flow while building assets, and operating margin scores 9.9/10, so profitability is real.
The company ranks as best-in-class on margins and an industry growth leader, with gross margin and operating margin components at 8.9 and 9.9 out of 10.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay at current levels while the peer growth rank stays above 8.
CounterMargins in gold depend on the gold price, and a drop would compress them sharply, while the valuation score of 2.3/10 shows investors already pay up for them.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.9 |
| Op margin | 9.9 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -296% FCF/NI
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 158%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.9 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 1.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 3.4 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 67%
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:8.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.3>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
7.98
Upside
+119.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 0d<=7d outcome against Sentiment at 7.2 and asymmetric R:R of 7.98.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.2, Quality at 5.6, and Momentum at 5.3; the weakest are Value at 1.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.3, and Technical at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $2.50 so that upside drops below 5% from 149.6%.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Oversold
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.3.
- P3Earnings Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income rises above 0% from the current -296%.
- P4Best In Class Margins Growth Leader
Trip ifOperating margin component falls below 6 out of 10 from the current 9.9.
- P5Rich Valuation
Trip ifValue score rises above 5.0 from the current 2.3.