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OCSLOaktree Specialty Lending CorpoSell5.3·$12.01-1.11%
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Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo (OCSL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.01 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation is a business development company. The fund specializing in investments in middle market, bridge financing, first and second lien debt financing, unsecured and mezzanine loan, mezzanine debt, senior and junior secured debt, expansions,... Read more

$12.01-1.2% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#142 of 240 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-0.43%
IncomeYield12.62%(5y avg 11.14%)Payout274.58%at-risk
Stop $11.66Target $12.05(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$12.43+3.5%6 analysts
$12.05our TP
$12.01price
$12.43mean
$12
$14

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.01 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.3% YoY), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.7
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn16.7%
ROE3.5%
Rev Growth-9.3%
Beta0.57
Dividend12.62%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.50bearish
IV71%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.9
Quality Rank
2.7
Value Rank
5.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
8.7
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.28Resistance $12.30

Price Targets

$12
$12
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OCSL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.01 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $11.66. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OCSL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.05 (-1.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.66. Stop-loss: $11.66.

What are the risks of investing in OCSL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.3% YoY), Negative free cash flow.

Is OCSL overvalued or undervalued?

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo trades at a P/E of 20.7 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OCSL?

12 analysts cover OCSL with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Oaktree Specialty Lending Corpo do?Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation is a business development company. The fund specializing in investments in middle...

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation is a business development company. The fund specializing in investments in middle market, bridge financing, first and second lien debt financing, unsecured and mezzanine loan, mezzanine debt, senior and junior secured debt, expansions, sponsor-led acquisitions, preferred equity, and management buyouts in small and mid-sized companies. It seeks to invest in education services, business services, retail and consumer, healthcare, manufacturing, food and restaurants, construction and engineering. The firm also seeks investment in media, advertising sectors, software, IT services, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, real estate management and development, chemicals, machinery, and internet and direct marketing retail sectors. It invests between $5 million to $75 million principally in the form of one-stop, first lien, and second lien debt investments, which may include an equity co-investment component in companies. The firm invest in companies having enterprise value between $20 million and $150 million and EBITDA between $3 million and $50 million. The fund has a hold size of up to $75 million and may underwrite transactions up to $100 million. It primarily invests in North America. The fund seeks to be a lead investor in its portfolio companies.

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