Value
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.0 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
NYT · Why this verdict
Why New York Times Company (The) (NYT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The New York Times Company demonstrates a high-quality business with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, strong earnings growth, and three recent beats, but the stock currently trades at or above its analyst price target with essentially no near-term upside, requiring patience for a pullback to create a meaningful entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A PEG ratio of 0.29 signals that the market may be underpricing earnings growth relative to the forward P/E of 23.1x, suggesting that subscriber-driven earnings expansion is not fully reflected in current valuation multiples. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands above 26x over the next 12 months as earnings growth is recognized, creating upside from multiple expansion rather than purely from earnings growth. | →Stable |
| CounterPublishing sector PEG ratios tend to be permanently compressed due to secular digital transformation risks; a 0.29 PEG may simply reflect the market's structural skepticism about long-term growth durability. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 combined with above-average returns on assets and equity indicates that the business is generating solid profitability across multiple financial health dimensions, reflecting disciplined capital management. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, confirming sustained financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong current F-Scores in media companies can mask the long-term structural challenge of monetizing digital audiences profitably as print advertising revenues decline permanently. | ||
Three earnings beats in the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 12.5%, including a 30.2% beat in the most recent quarter, demonstrates that the company's digital subscription growth is translating into better-than-expected earnings power. Earnings | Earnings beat rate stays at 3 or more out of the next 4 quarters and average positive surprise remains above 8%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe single miss quarter at minus 3.7% surprise shows that quarters where digital subscriber growth slows can quickly bring earnings back in line or below consensus, limiting the reliability of the beat pattern. | ||
With the stock essentially at its analyst price target and upside of only 0.1%, new buyers are taking on entry risk with minimal near-term reward, and leverage at 2.4x debt-to-equity creates additional sensitivity to interest rate changes. Bear case | A pullback of at least 7% from current levels creates a more favorable entry with meaningful upside to the next analyst target above $80. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStocks at analyst targets can continue higher if analysts raise targets driven by subscriber growth beats; the 0.1% gap may not be the relevant metric if the target itself is stale. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.29 signals that the market may be underpricing earnings growth relative to the forward P/E of 23.1x, suggesting that subscriber-driven earnings expansion is not fully reflected in current valuation multiples.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands above 26x over the next 12 months as earnings growth is recognized, creating upside from multiple expansion rather than purely from earnings growth.
CounterPublishing sector PEG ratios tend to be permanently compressed due to secular digital transformation risks; a 0.29 PEG may simply reflect the market's structural skepticism about long-term growth durability.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 combined with above-average returns on assets and equity indicates that the business is generating solid profitability across multiple financial health dimensions, reflecting disciplined capital management.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, confirming sustained financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
CounterStrong current F-Scores in media companies can mask the long-term structural challenge of monetizing digital audiences profitably as print advertising revenues decline permanently.
Three earnings beats in the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 12.5%, including a 30.2% beat in the most recent quarter, demonstrates that the company's digital subscription growth is translating into better-than-expected earnings power.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate stays at 3 or more out of the next 4 quarters and average positive surprise remains above 8%.
CounterThe single miss quarter at minus 3.7% surprise shows that quarters where digital subscriber growth slows can quickly bring earnings back in line or below consensus, limiting the reliability of the beat pattern.
With the stock essentially at its analyst price target and upside of only 0.1%, new buyers are taking on entry risk with minimal near-term reward, and leverage at 2.4x debt-to-equity creates additional sensitivity to interest rate changes.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- A pullback of at least 7% from current levels creates a more favorable entry with meaningful upside to the next analyst target above $80.
CounterStocks at analyst targets can continue higher if analysts raise targets driven by subscriber growth beats; the 0.1% gap may not be the relevant metric if the target itself is stale.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.6 |
| ROA | 6.8 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 6.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $2,071,412 (0.017% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 2.9 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.4 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.28
Upside
-2.2%
Downside
8.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.8; weakest: Technical at 4.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Catalyst at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.8, Momentum at 5.0, and Value at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Fundamentals Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 in any reported quarter.
- P2Earnings Beat Growth Profile
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Peg Growth Undervaluation
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 18x without a reduction in earnings growth expectations below 10%.
- P4Target Reached Momentum Risk
Trip ifPrice drops below $65 and analyst price target is reduced by more than 10%.