Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
NXST · Why this verdict
Why Nexstar Media Group (NXST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nexstar Media Group trades at a deep discount with a forward P/E of 7.1x and PEG of 0.16, backed by exceptional free cash flow conversion of 402% and strong recent earnings beats, but a confirmed death-cross technical pattern and heavy leverage of 5.8x debt-to-equity create significant near-term headwinds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A PEG ratio of 0.16 and forward P/E of 7.1x represent a deeply discounted valuation relative to earnings growth expectations, offering substantial margin of safety for investors willing to hold through the current technical weakness. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands above 10x over the next 12 months as the death-cross resolves and earnings growth is re-rated by the market, with price rising above $200. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBroadcast television companies trade at persistent valuation discounts due to secular audience-decline risks from cord-cutting; a low PEG may be structurally justified rather than a temporary mispricing. | ||
Free cash flow conversion of 402% relative to net income — driven by large non-cash depreciation and amortization in broadcast assets — means the company generates far more distributable cash than GAAP earnings suggest, supporting dividend sustainability and debt reduction capacity. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income over the next 12 months, sustaining the dividend and providing optionality for debt paydown. | →Stable |
| CounterBroadcast media FCF is partially supported by cyclical political advertising revenue that swings sharply in non-election years, so the headline conversion ratio may normalize downward significantly. | ||
Three beats in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 20.6% — including two beats exceeding 50% — reflects either conservative management guidance or genuine operational outperformance well ahead of analyst expectations. Earnings | Earnings beat rate stays at 3 or more out of the next 4 quarters with an average positive surprise greater than 10%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 50%+ surprise quarters suggest analyst models were significantly miscalibrated, likely reflecting political ad revenue volatility; future surprises may be far smaller and less consistent. | ||
Debt-to-equity of 5.8x combined with a confirmed death-cross technical pattern and RSI at 29 creates a dangerous combination where forced selling by leveraged holders could accelerate price decline before fundamentals can reassert themselves. Bear case | Debt-to-equity declines below 4.5x over 18 months through FCF-driven deleveraging, and price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 9 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBroadcasters routinely carry high leverage backed by stable long-term retransmission contracts and political ad cycle revenues; the leverage level may be less risky than it appears in isolation. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.16 and forward P/E of 7.1x represent a deeply discounted valuation relative to earnings growth expectations, offering substantial margin of safety for investors willing to hold through the current technical weakness.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands above 10x over the next 12 months as the death-cross resolves and earnings growth is re-rated by the market, with price rising above $200.
CounterBroadcast television companies trade at persistent valuation discounts due to secular audience-decline risks from cord-cutting; a low PEG may be structurally justified rather than a temporary mispricing.
Free cash flow conversion of 402% relative to net income — driven by large non-cash depreciation and amortization in broadcast assets — means the company generates far more distributable cash than GAAP earnings suggest, supporting dividend sustainability and debt reduction capacity.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income over the next 12 months, sustaining the dividend and providing optionality for debt paydown.
CounterBroadcast media FCF is partially supported by cyclical political advertising revenue that swings sharply in non-election years, so the headline conversion ratio may normalize downward significantly.
Three beats in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 20.6% — including two beats exceeding 50% — reflects either conservative management guidance or genuine operational outperformance well ahead of analyst expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate stays at 3 or more out of the next 4 quarters with an average positive surprise greater than 10%.
CounterThe 50%+ surprise quarters suggest analyst models were significantly miscalibrated, likely reflecting political ad revenue volatility; future surprises may be far smaller and less consistent.
Debt-to-equity of 5.8x combined with a confirmed death-cross technical pattern and RSI at 29 creates a dangerous combination where forced selling by leveraged holders could accelerate price decline before fundamentals can reassert themselves.
Tripped↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity declines below 4.5x over 18 months through FCF-driven deleveraging, and price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 9 months.
CounterBroadcasters routinely carry high leverage backed by stable long-term retransmission contracts and political ad cycle revenues; the leverage level may be less risky than it appears in isolation.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 8.5 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 424% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 5.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 62% YoY
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 4.0 |
| MA position | 3.5 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $4,174,707 (0.073% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 3.9%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
1.92
Upside
+16.2%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.92 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Growth at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Fcf Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 150% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deep Value Peg Discount
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x without a corresponding increase in the earnings growth rate above 15%.
- P3Earnings Beat Large Surprise
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Leverage Death Cross RiskTripped
Trip ifDebt-to-equity rises above 7x or price drops below $140.