Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Communication Services · Broadcasting
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $172.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.8): -1.5; Negative momentum.
Nexstar Media Group operates over 200 broadcast television stations in 116 U.S. markets reaching over 225 million people, plus The CW network and NewsNation. The company generated $4.9 billion in 2025 revenue, split 59% distribution fees and 40% advertising, serving over 50,000... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $172.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.8): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About Nexstar Media Group, Inc.
About Nexstar Media Group, Inc.
Nexstar Media Group generated $4.9 billion in total net revenue in 2025 across 201 broadcast stations in 116 markets covering 40 states and the District of Columbia, reaching approximately 70% of U.S. television households. Distribution revenue (59% of 2025 revenue) and advertising (40%) are the two principal streams; no single market produced more than 3% of 2025 revenue and no network affiliate group represented more than 25% of combined core and political advertising net revenue.
Nexstar earns retransmission consent fees from MVPDs and vMVPDs for the right to carry its stations' signals, with fees tied to subscriber counts — a structure exposed to the multi-year decline in pay-TV subscribers. Advertising splits approximately 68% local (non-network) and 32% national, with political advertising contributing meaningfully in even-numbered years given overlap with over 80% of contested election markets. National brands — The CW (reaching over 128 million television households), NewsNation, and The Hill — supplement local station revenue. All but two operated stations have network affiliation agreements expiring through December 2027, requiring periodic renegotiation with CBS, FOX, NBC, and ABC. The company carried $6.3 billion of debt as of December 31, 2025, representing 75.4% of total capitalization, with $3.6 billion at floating rates tied to SOFR.
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In March 2026, Nexstar disclosed via Form 8-K that the TEGNA acquisition closed on March 19, 2026 and that Nexstar Media Inc. issued $3.39 billion in 6.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2033 on March 25, 2026 to refinance the bridge facility and TEGNA notes. The $6.2 billion transaction added 64 television stations in 51 DMAs, expanding the combined footprint to 265 full-power stations covering 80% of U.S. television households. FCC consent was a required closing condition; failure to obtain clearances by November 18, 2026 would have triggered a $125 million termination fee payable to TEGNA.
See also: Communication Services · Broadcasting
From Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Nexstar Media Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nexstar shares drop after judge orders pause in Tegna merger - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS Nexstar seeks expedited review of order halting Tegna merger - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS O Shaughnessy Asset Management LLC Buys 19,863 Shares of Nexstar Media Group, Inc. $NXST - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Insider Sell: Charles Mcmillen Sells 1,000 Shares of Nexstar Med - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Nexstar media president Sean Compton’s $154k NXST stock sale By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria negative
Generated 2026-06-17T08:36:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertwo largest customers10-K Item 1A: 'revenues from two customers exceeded 10%. Each of these customers represented approximately 13% for 2025...of our consolidated net revenues'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-30Item 1.01MEDIUMNexstar Media Inc. issued $3,390 million in 6.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2033 on March 25, 2026, to fund repayment of bridge financing and TEGNA 2028 Notes following the TEGNA acquisition close on March 19, 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-30Item 1.02MEDIUMBridge Facility terminated upon repayment from proceeds of 6.500% Senior Secured Notes and New Incremental Term Loan B Facility on March 25, 2026. No successor facility named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $172.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.8): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $218.91 (+27.2%), stop $164.40 (−4.7%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $218.91 (+27.2% upside). Target $218.91 (+27.2%), stop $164.40 (−4.7%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $164.40.
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.8): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 36.6 (forward 7.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
14 analysts cover NXST with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $252.
What does Nexstar Media Group, Inc. do?Nexstar Media Group operates over 200 broadcast television stations in 116 U.S. markets reaching over 225 million...
Nexstar Media Group operates over 200 broadcast television stations in 116 U.S. markets reaching over 225 million people, plus The CW network and NewsNation. The company generated $4.9 billion in 2025 revenue, split 59% distribution fees and 40% advertising, serving over 50,000 advertisers.