Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) Stock Analysis
Communication Services · Broadcasting
Sell if holding. At $205.96, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.2): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).
Nexstar Media Group is the largest local television broadcasting company in the United States, operating 200+ stations in 116 markets reaching 225 million people, plus The CW network (80.8% interest) and NewsNation. Revenue of $4.9 billion in 2025 comes from retransmission... Read more
Sell if holding. At $205.96, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.2): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertwo largest customers (~13% each)13%10-K Item 1A: 'the Company's revenues from two customers exceeded 10%. Each of these customers represented approximately 13% for 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-30Item 1.01MEDIUMNexstar Media Inc. issued $3,390M of 6.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2033 on March 25, 2026 to fund TEGNA acquisition (closed March 19, 2026) and repay outstanding Bridge Facility and other TEGNA debt obligations.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-30Item 1.02MEDIUMRepayment and termination of Bridge Facility (~$1.2B) and TEGNA 2028 Notes in connection with TEGNA acquisition closing March 19, 2026. Proceeds from new Secured Notes used for repayment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -13.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $205.96, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.2): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $192.74. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $227.29 (+10.4% upside). Prior stop was $192.74. Stop-loss: $192.74.
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.2): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Weak overall score: 4.5/10.
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 67.6 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover NXST with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $261.
What does Nexstar Media Group, Inc. do?Nexstar Media Group is the largest local television broadcasting company in the United States, operating 200+ stations...
Nexstar Media Group is the largest local television broadcasting company in the United States, operating 200+ stations in 116 markets reaching 225 million people, plus The CW network (80.8% interest) and NewsNation. Revenue of $4.9 billion in 2025 comes from retransmission consent fees, distribution agreements, and advertising across local and national TV and digital assets.