Value
3.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 3.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 6.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 18.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
NTST · Why this verdict
Why NetSTREIT (NTST) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
NetSTREIT achieves an elite Rule of 40 score of 93 and ranks as the industry growth leader in the retail REIT sector with 24% revenue growth, while converting earnings to free cash flow at an exceptional rate of 1000% of net income through its net lease property model. Quality breakdown | Rule of 40 score remains above 70 and revenue growth stays above 15% year-over-year over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion at 1000% of net income reflects the accounting treatment of REIT depreciation rather than operating efficiency; the actual profitability driver is the quality and coverage of net lease tenants. | ||
Short interest stands at 35% of the float, an exceptionally high level for a small-cap REIT, indicating that a very large proportion of active market participants are positioned for the stock to decline, possibly betting on a capital raise or credit quality deterioration. Key risks | Short interest falls below 20% within 12 months as the growth thesis is validated and the capital structure concerns resolve. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest in growing REITs often reflects hedges by investors who own the bonds or preferred shares, not directional bets; a short squeeze could be extremely violent if positive news surprises. | ||
The stock's upside to its analyst target is only 2.2% and the asymmetry ratio is only 0.44, meaning the potential loss of 4.3% significantly outweighs the remaining price upside at current levels near $19.96. Warnings | Either the stock corrects to create at least 10% upside to the analyst target, or analyst targets are raised by at least 15% above the current price within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNetSTREIT's Rule of 40 of 93 is elite and its peer-group leadership in growth may attract multiple expansion beyond current targets if institutional recognition of the company's quality increases. | ||
Analyst rating scores 8.94 out of 10 — the highest conviction buy rating — and the company ranks as the industry growth leader in its peer group, with the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 supporting the underlying business quality. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst consensus maintains a strong buy rating at or above 8.0 and at least 2 new analyst initiations occur over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only limited analyst coverage implied by the data, the high rating reflects a small consensus that could shift disproportionately on a single downgrade or estimate revision. | ||
NetSTREIT achieves an elite Rule of 40 score of 93 and ranks as the industry growth leader in the retail REIT sector with 24% revenue growth, while converting earnings to free cash flow at an exceptional rate of 1000% of net income through its net lease property model.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Rule of 40 score remains above 70 and revenue growth stays above 15% year-over-year over the next 12 months.
CounterCash conversion at 1000% of net income reflects the accounting treatment of REIT depreciation rather than operating efficiency; the actual profitability driver is the quality and coverage of net lease tenants.
Short interest stands at 35% of the float, an exceptionally high level for a small-cap REIT, indicating that a very large proportion of active market participants are positioned for the stock to decline, possibly betting on a capital raise or credit quality deterioration.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 20% within 12 months as the growth thesis is validated and the capital structure concerns resolve.
CounterHigh short interest in growing REITs often reflects hedges by investors who own the bonds or preferred shares, not directional bets; a short squeeze could be extremely violent if positive news surprises.
The stock's upside to its analyst target is only 2.2% and the asymmetry ratio is only 0.44, meaning the potential loss of 4.3% significantly outweighs the remaining price upside at current levels near $19.96.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Either the stock corrects to create at least 10% upside to the analyst target, or analyst targets are raised by at least 15% above the current price within 12 months.
CounterNetSTREIT's Rule of 40 of 93 is elite and its peer-group leadership in growth may attract multiple expansion beyond current targets if institutional recognition of the company's quality increases.
Analyst rating scores 8.94 out of 10 — the highest conviction buy rating — and the company ranks as the industry growth leader in its peer group, with the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 supporting the underlying business quality.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus maintains a strong buy rating at or above 8.0 and at least 2 new analyst initiations occur over the next 12 months.
CounterWith only limited analyst coverage implied by the data, the high rating reflects a small consensus that could shift disproportionately on a single downgrade or estimate revision.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NetSTREIT is the industry growth leader in retail REITs with 24% revenue growth and an elite Rule of 40 score of 93, exceptional cash conversion at 1000% of net income, but faces extremely high short interest of 35%, a low asymmetry ratio, and its analyst target has essentially been reached, limiting near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.3 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 1.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 93 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.9 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $54,008 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 0.4 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸High short interest: 39%
- ▸High IV: 108%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.9 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.45
Upside
-5.6%
Downside
12.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.3; weakest: Technical at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.3, Momentum at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Value at 3.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Rule Of 40 Growth Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth rate falls below 10% year-over-year or Rule of 40 score declines below 55 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Very High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 45% or the company announces a dilutive equity offering exceeding 10% of shares outstanding.
- P3Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifStock price rises above $21 without analyst targets being raised above $21.
- P4Strong Analyst Sentiment Coverage
Trip ifAnalyst consensus rating falls below 7.0 or 2 or more analysts downgrade the stock within a 30-day period.