Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.33
- ▸Attractively valued
NTB · Why this verdict
Why Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son (NTB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bank of N.T. Butterfield offers attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.34, with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and strong margins of 39%, but the stock has reached its analyst target and the negative asymmetry ratio leaves little room for new capital deployment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Bank of N.T. Butterfield trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.34, ranking in the attractive category for both value and quality versus its banking peers, suggesting the market is undervaluing the earnings growth trajectory. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings ratio remains below 12x and PEG ratio stays below 0.7 as earnings growth is recognized over the next 12 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterLow multiples for offshore banking operations can reflect structural risks around regulatory scrutiny, geographic revenue concentration, and sensitivity to offshore financial center reputational risk. | ||
Butterfield has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.5%, demonstrating consistent execution in a niche offshore banking market. Catalyst breakdown | Beat rate remains at 4 out of 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 5% over the next four reporting periods. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe bank has only 3 active analyst followers according to the data, making the consensus estimate less robust and more susceptible to single-analyst revision effects. | ||
Butterfield generates net margins of 39% and ranks at the top of its peer group on both quality and value metrics, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicating strong financial health. Peer-rank breakdown | Net margins remain above 30% and the company maintains its top-quartile peer ranking on quality over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh net margins in offshore banking are structurally vulnerable to global minimum tax initiatives and increased transparency requirements that could compress the offshore advantage. | ||
The stock has reached its analyst price target with only -0.7% remaining upside, and the asymmetry ratio is negative at -1.81, meaning the downside risk of 4.4% outweighs any price appreciation potential at current levels. Warnings | Either the price pulls back to create at least 10% upside to the analyst target, or analyst price targets are raised by at least 15% above the current price of $58.46 within 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe breakout chart setup with a golden cross and above-all-moving-averages positioning suggests price momentum may carry the stock higher even beyond current targets if earnings continue to surprise. | ||
Bank of N.T. Butterfield trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.34, ranking in the attractive category for both value and quality versus its banking peers, suggesting the market is undervaluing the earnings growth trajectory.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings ratio remains below 12x and PEG ratio stays below 0.7 as earnings growth is recognized over the next 12 months.
CounterLow multiples for offshore banking operations can reflect structural risks around regulatory scrutiny, geographic revenue concentration, and sensitivity to offshore financial center reputational risk.
Butterfield has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.5%, demonstrating consistent execution in a niche offshore banking market.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Beat rate remains at 4 out of 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 5% over the next four reporting periods.
CounterThe bank has only 3 active analyst followers according to the data, making the consensus estimate less robust and more susceptible to single-analyst revision effects.
Butterfield generates net margins of 39% and ranks at the top of its peer group on both quality and value metrics, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicating strong financial health.
↓DeterioratingPeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 30% and the company maintains its top-quartile peer ranking on quality over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh net margins in offshore banking are structurally vulnerable to global minimum tax initiatives and increased transparency requirements that could compress the offshore advantage.
The stock has reached its analyst price target with only -0.7% remaining upside, and the asymmetry ratio is negative at -1.81, meaning the downside risk of 4.4% outweighs any price appreciation potential at current levels.
Tripped↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Either the price pulls back to create at least 10% upside to the analyst target, or analyst price targets are raised by at least 15% above the current price of $58.46 within 12 months.
CounterThe breakout chart setup with a golden cross and above-all-moving-averages positioning suggests price momentum may carry the stock higher even beyond current targets if earnings continue to surprise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 7.3 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.6 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $7,868,328 (0.320% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 9.2 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 76%
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:77d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.32%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-2.12
Upside
-14.5%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.8; weakest: Technical at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Insider at 3.7, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Low PegTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 14x without corresponding earnings growth estimate increases.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak Banking
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Strong Margins Superior Peer Rank
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price At Target Negative AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifStock price rises above $62 without analyst targets being raised above $62.