Value
6.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
NSP · Why this verdict
Why Insperity (NSP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Insperity is a low-quality staffing and employer-services company with a 4.9% dividend and a 3-of-4 earnings beat record, but the price is above the analyst target and momentum is only middling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 3.0/10 with no moat and gross, operating and net margin components at 0, although free cash flow is about 1000% of net income. Quality breakdown | Margins should improve so the quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 1000% cash conversion ratio on a near-zero net income base shows the company still generates real cash, and the Piotroski score is 6.7. | ||
The stock at $48.68 is above the $43.77 analyst target (distance to target -10.1%), with a reward-to-risk of -0.88. Analyst target | Analyst targets should rise toward $51 or the price should drift back toward the target over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe shares trade at a forward P/E of 18.1x with a PEG of 0.02, so a stale target may understate earnings power rather than the stock being rich. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.22 against $0.21 in the latest report, though February missed by 28.9%. Earnings | EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates in the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe beats are small (3% to 7%) and the one miss was large, so the average surprise is -3.2% and earnings volatility is high. | ||
The dividend yields 4.9% and dividend safety scores 5.8/10, providing moderate income support. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should be maintained at the current rate over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith net margin at 0 in the quality components, a 4.9% yield may exceed what earnings can fund, and safety at 5.8 is only middling. | ||
Momentum is 4.9/10, just above the 4.5 minimum, with a volume surge of 2.5x on an up move but falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should rise above 5.5 as volume confirms the up move. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA MACD component of 0 and falling on-balance volume point to distribution, so the volume surge may mark a short-lived spike. | ||
Quality scores 3.0/10 with no moat and gross, operating and net margin components at 0, although free cash flow is about 1000% of net income.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should improve so the quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterA 1000% cash conversion ratio on a near-zero net income base shows the company still generates real cash, and the Piotroski score is 6.7.
The stock at $48.68 is above the $43.77 analyst target (distance to target -10.1%), with a reward-to-risk of -0.88.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise toward $51 or the price should drift back toward the target over the next 12 months.
CounterThe shares trade at a forward P/E of 18.1x with a PEG of 0.02, so a stale target may understate earnings power rather than the stock being rich.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.22 against $0.21 in the latest report, though February missed by 28.9%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates in the next 12 months.
CounterThe beats are small (3% to 7%) and the one miss was large, so the average surprise is -3.2% and earnings volatility is high.
The dividend yields 4.9% and dividend safety scores 5.8/10, providing moderate income support.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should be maintained at the current rate over the next 12 months.
CounterWith net margin at 0 in the quality components, a 4.9% yield may exceed what earnings can fund, and safety at 5.8 is only middling.
Momentum is 4.9/10, just above the 4.5 minimum, with a volume surge of 2.5x on an up move but falling on-balance volume.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should rise above 5.5 as volume confirms the up move.
CounterA MACD component of 0 and falling on-balance volume point to distribution, so the volume surge may mark a short-lived spike.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.5 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.5 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 3.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 4.9%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:99d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.18
Upside
-17.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.2=NEGATIVE outcome against Insider at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -1.18.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Momentum at 6.9, and Value at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.9, Quality at 3.0, and Peer rank at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $51 so that upside exceeds 5% from the current -10.1%.
- P2Earnings Beats Mostly Intact
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Weak Quality Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifOverall quality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.0.
- P4Dividend Income Support
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 4.0 from the current 5.8.
- P5Middling Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 4.9.